Overestimated battles

[Galba Otho Vitelius]

Hastings. For reasons I never understood, became important to the English national myth.

However, before Henry VIII built a navy for England, there were lots of instances where England was conquered by noblemen based in France or the Low Countries -the advisors of Philip II drew up a list when planning the Armada- so if the Duke of Normandy didn't get it done in 1066 some other continental nobleman would have. The dynasty of William the Conqueror as it happened died out 70 years after the conquest, to be supplanted by two other French based dynasties. There was also a good chance, as indicated by the life of Emma of Normandy, of England acquiring a continental royal dynasty by marriage.

There obviously was a big effect on the language, but its also not clear what the Normans brought to the development of England and its institution that wasn't happening already.

 

[Fabius Maximus]

Hastings. For reasons I never understood, became important to the English national myth.

For one thing, it resulted in the near-total replacement of the English nobility, major linguistic changes, and a general cultural and political reorientation of the country away from the Scandinavian cultural sphere towards the French one. Yes, this last one was happening to a degree already, but absent Hastings it would have been far less rapid and probably far less thorough.

However, before Henry VIII built a navy for England, there were lots of instances where England was conquered by noblemen based in France or the Low Countries -the advisors of Philip II drew up a list when planning the Armada- so if the Duke of Normandy didn't get it done in 1066 some other continental nobleman would have.

There were cases where noblemen with a claim to the throne and significant support in England set out from France and took control of the country, but I'm struggling to think of parallel examples where someone with as little support as William had (even if he could claim a right to the throne, did literally any of the English nobility support his invasion?) who managed. So assuming that somebody would inevitably have done what William did seems overly-deterministic, to put it mildly.

 

[Alex Zetsu]

However, before Henry VIII built a navy for England, there were lots of instances where England was conquered by noblemen based in France or the Low Countries -the advisors of Philip II drew up a list when planning the Armada- so if the Duke of Normandy didn't get it done in 1066 some other continental nobleman would have. The dynasty of William the Conqueror as it happened died out 70 years after the conquest, to be supplanted by two other French based dynasties. There was also a good chance, as indicated by the life of Emma of Normandy, of England acquiring a continental royal dynasty by marriage.

Well, I think it's likely Continental Dynasty would take England by marriage or by force. But... which noble house gets England? I mean that is really important. heck, the Danish might come later if William and Hardrada broth didn't push their claims and attacked Harold. And although in OTL William's male line ended in 70 years, the choice of their in-laws determined which (much longer lasting) dynasty came after them. England was probably going to end up more into the sphere of Europe one way or another, but which family matters a lot. And if say... the Counts of Flanders became Kings of England by some marriage, they are unlikely to replace the entire local nobility so much as send their younger sons and daughters to intermarry.

 

[BBadolato]

I'd say both the battle of Okehazama, at least in the case of an Oda victory and the battle of Nagashino in general.

Okehazam was a battle where Nobunaga raided and attacker a much larger Imagawa force and killed their leader Imagawa Yoshimoto Okehazama at least as far as an Oda victory goes is not overly consequential outside of the Oda survival. Oda Nobunaga's rise to power came 7 years later by defeating the Saito, and they like most of Nobunaga other enemies he had the fortune of them being either ineffective, out of the way and too busy with other conflicts. Okehazama would mean nothing if Nobunaga had stiffer resistance early on.

Nagashino was a battle between the Takeda clan of Kai in Western Japan and an alliance of the Oda and Tokugawa clan. This battle is usually portrayed with the Oda using arquebuses in a fire by rank formation, against the cavalry of the Takeda. Well for the Takeda, they only had one unit of cavalry that actually fought as cavalry. The Takeda at this point where driven back, and for all that could be said of Takeda Katsuyori "ruining" the legacy of Takeda Shingen, the Takeda only recently expanded under the reign of Shingen, and they weren't easily defended places to keep together. The Takeda did lose plenty of their best retainers but I'd argue by that point the writing was on the wall.

While the Oda could easily amass more power, as they and the Tokugawa outnumbered them nearly 2 to 1. While even if the Oda were to lose, it would look to be more of a temporary set back, while the Tokugawa would be in trouble. I doubt the Takeda could threaten Owari. Tactics wise it was less massed volleys and more feints, deception, and field fortifications that one Nobunaga the day.

 

[Avrorrange]

The battle of Mantzikert: usually people consider this battle the event that marked the decline of the empire and the loss of Asia. But back in Constantinople the Doukas were already plotting againt the emperor and only the deposition of Romanus IV allowed the Turks to take advantage of the weakened empire. 10 years of civil wars and usurpers, who heavily relied on mercenaries (including Turks) brought the empire to the brink of collapse while gifting the East to mercenaries as payment (mainly Turks but also Normans and to a lesser degree Armenians).

People usually link these events to Mantzikert, when the same events (albeit with some chronological differences) could have taken place even after a Roman victory against the invaders. Of course I’m not saying that this course of events would be certain, as Romanus IV was a rather capable emperor, but all the elements necessary for the collapse of the empire were already there.

Disagree.If Romanos able to deal with the Turkish threat decisively, then this should be more than enough to shore up support for him to overcome the Doukas opposition.

A major reason why Romanos was so vulnerable in the first place was because he was unable to solve the Turkish crisis that his elevation was dependant on, and as a result,elements of the army started to waver in their support of him.

 

[Zheng He]

A lot of great suggestions here but I have to go with Cannae...

 

[Captain Seafort]

A lot of great suggestions here but I have to go with Cannae...

I don't think it is - I've never seen anyone claim Cannae was anything but tactical genius with no serious strategic consequences.

 

[Curtain Jerker]

I don't think it is - I've never seen anyone claim Cannae was anything but tactical genius with no serious strategic consequences.

I say Cannae's pretty influential just for inspiring the Schlieffen Plan.

 

[Flavius Iulius Nepos]

Disagree.If Romanos able to deal with the Turkish threat decisively, then this should be more than enough to shore up support for him to overcome the Doukas opposition.

That’s a big if. An alternate Mantzikert could just be the kind of victory with limited losses for the Turks, which would just prolong the conflict. And that’s not enough for Romanus who has also to deal with the Normans and a disastrous internal situation.

A major reason why Romanos was so vulnerable in the first place was because he was unable to solve the Turkish crisis that his elevation was dependant on, and as a result,elements of the army started to waver in their support of him.

You could have the emperor accept a deal with the Turks (who were not interested in Anatolia) and have him directly face the opposition inside the empire: which probably mean a new civil war, since many Doukas already held important positions and the advantage of controlling the capital. But without the destruction of his army at Mantzikert, Romanus has pretty decent chance to win that war and without Michael VII resorting to call the Seljuks against his many opponents, the Turks have no reason to settle into Anatolia. Yet the empire would still be weakened and surrounded by dangerous enemies (Turks, Normans, Pechenegs, restive Bulgars). An alt-Mantzikert could have many possible outcomes but the future of the empire doesn’t really look bright unless you give Romanus a long reign or a worthy successor. Otherwise you have just postponed the disaster to a latter moment.

 

[Avrorrange]

That’s a big if. An alternate Mantzikert could just be the kind of victory with limited losses for the Turks, which would just prolong the conflict. And that’s not enough for Romanus who has also to deal with the Normans and a disastrous internal situation.

You could have the emperor accept a deal with the Turks (who were not interested in Anatolia) and have him directly face the opposition inside the empire: which probably mean a new civil war, since many Doukas already held important positions and the advantage of controlling the capital. But without the destruction of his army at Mantzikert, Romanus has pretty decent chance to win that war and without Michael VII resorting to call the Seljuks against his many opponents, the Turks have no reason to settle into Anatolia. Yet the empire would still be weakened and surrounded by dangerous enemies (Turks, Normans, Pechenegs, restive Bulgars). An alt-Mantzikert could have many possible outcomes but the future of the empire doesn’t really look bright unless you give Romanus a long reign or a worthy successor. Otherwise you have just postponed the disaster to a latter moment.

The problem of a deal with Alp Arslan is that both men knew that Alp Arslan couldn’t have enforced it.Alp Arslan can prevent an all out invasion, but not raids by his vassals.The raids were a major issue during the 1060s.Money was also running out for Romanos,he couldn’t possibly raise another army to deal with another invasion/raid, let alone fight a civil war.The goal therefore was to win big, kill as many Turks as possible, and strong arm the Turks in general into a peace.

 

[Alex Zetsu]

Okehazam was a battle where Nobunaga raided and attacker a much larger Imagawa force and killed their leader Imagawa Yoshimoto Okehazama at least as far as an Oda victory goes is not overly consequential outside of the Oda survival. Oda Nobunaga's rise to power came 7 years later by defeating the Saito, and they like most of Nobunaga other enemies he had the fortune of them being either ineffective, out of the way and too busy with other conflicts. Okehazama would mean nothing if Nobunaga had stiffer resistance early on.

Oda survival might be a big thing since Oda Nobunaga was quite different than other daimyo personality wise. It's plausible to think of Takeda, Ashikaga, Hoshikawa, and Imagawa dominated Japans quite similar (they wouldn't have to be, but I'm sure there are personality types that have representation in those families) but you don't get too many like Nobunaga.

 

[Flavius Iulius Nepos]

The problem of a deal with Alp Arslan is that both men knew that Alp Arslan couldn’t have enforced it.Alp Arslan can prevent an all out invasion, but not raids by his vassals.The raids were a major issue during the 1060s.Money was also running out for Romanos,he couldn’t possibly raise another army to deal with another invasion/raid, let alone fight a civil war.The goal therefore was to win big, kill as many Turks as possible, and strong arm the Turks in general into a peace.

True Alp Arslan can’t stop minor Turkish raids. And money is a problem. That’s why I think the future of the empire doesn’t look great, and therefore the battle of Mantzikert is overestimated. Of course the loss Anatolia is not a given but it seems likely that the 11th century is still going to be a negative century for the Romans. Unless Romanus achieves a great victory ( like the one they achieved against the Pechenegs under Alexios) as you said. But that’s not a simple task.

 

[BBadolato]

Oda survival might be a big thing since Oda Nobunaga was quite different than other daimyo personality wise. It's plausible to think of Takeda, Ashikaga, Hoshikawa, and Imagawa dominated Japans quite similar (they wouldn't have to be, but I'm sure there are personality types that have representation in those families) but you don't get too many like Nobunaga.

For all of Nobunaga's skill and ability to attract talent, he did benefit from rising to power in an area where he was left with very few people with either the means to stop him or ability. If a POD such as the Saito or Miyoshi managing to avoid disaster happens with an OTL Okehazama it would prove my point about Oda dominance.

 

[Alex Zetsu]

Pretty much all of Hannibal's career is composed of overestimated battles as well. Rome could send a seemingly infinite number of armies against him while his own government didn't even send another army to support him up until Hasdrubal's invasion. Cannae was a very impressive feat, nobody can deny that, but it was not a situation that could be kept up forever, seeing as he eventually lost of course.

Actually it was the Italians who had a seemingly endless supply of men. Rome proper lost 25% of its fighting age men at Cannae. Hannibal figured he couldn't defeat Rome with his own men, but victories would cause their Italian allies to join him. And while he hoped his own government would support him, he did consider him army just a tool to bring Rome to favorable peace terms (reparations, renouncation of Sicily and Sardinia) rather than conquest. And that fell flan on his face when Capua and Tarentum were the only big cities to defect. Syracuse could count as a defection, but technically they were independent, not bound to Rome by anything other than relations of its ruler to specific Romans, and unlike treaty bound Italians they could leave any time and "only" lose Roman favor.

 

[SealTheRealDeal]

Most, if not all the battles during the cursades.

Were they though? Despite the inevitable defeat of the Crusaders being a popular talking point, it still took the Muslims about 200 years to evict them from the Levant.

And it's not like OTL was a Crusader wank either, there were plenty of instances of missed opportunities, incompetence, and Crusader infighting.

 

[UCB79]

I don't think it is - I've never seen anyone claim Cannae was anything but tactical genius with no serious strategic consequences.

It was said of Hannibal(& Robert E Lee)that
he knew how to gain victory- but not how to
use it.

 

[Alex Zetsu]

Were they though? Despite the inevitable defeat of the Crusaders being a popular talking point, it still took the Muslims about 200 years to evict them from the Levant.

And it's not like OTL was a Crusader wank either, there were plenty of instances of missed opportunities, incompetence, and Crusader infighting.

There was Muslim infighting too. In fact, to be honest, the Muslims never really considered the Crusaders a big threat. They were never one big monolith, there were different factions. And rivalries that are comparable to the later Hapsburg Valois one. The rulers honestly assessed the Crusaders as just one more faction to fight, and this faction was obsessed land that (despite containing Jerusalem was economically poorer, smaller and often incompetent to boot. To the Catholics, the Crusades change a whole lot, but for the Muslims, there were honestly bigger fish to fry. It wasn't until Victorian times when Muslim elites (that were outside Palestine itself) considered it more than a blip and annoyance to be quickly lost to history because... they noticed how much the Europeans cared about them.

 

[Fabius Maximus]

The problem of a deal with Alp Arslan is that both men knew that Alp Arslan couldn’t have enforced it.Alp Arslan can prevent an all out invasion, but not raids by his vassals.The raids were a major issue during the 1060s.Money was also running out for Romanos,he couldn’t possibly raise another army to deal with another invasion/raid, let alone fight a civil war.The goal therefore was to win big, kill as many Turks as possible, and strong arm the Turks in general into a peace.

I wonder whether restoring the Theme system might have been a viable alternative policy? It seemed to work OK dealing with Saracen raids in previous centuries, and had the advantage of not costing the treasury too much.

 

[Avrorrange]

I wonder whether restoring the Theme system might have been a viable alternative policy? It seemed to work OK dealing with Saracen raids in previous centuries, and had the advantage of not costing the treasury too much.

The problem was that the dynatoi gobbled up military land and often did not pay any taxes for them.Any attempt to restore the theme system would involve a massive crackdown of the dynatoi class, which most likely did not worth the trouble.

Situation probably would have been way better if the Komnenians didn’t let the Doukas take the throne to begin with.

 

[Flavius Iulius Nepos]

I wonder whether restoring the Theme system might have been a viable alternative policy? It seemed to work OK dealing with Saracen raids in previous centuries, and had the advantage of not costing the treasury too much.

The problem was that the dynatoi gobbled up military land and often did not pay any taxes for them.Any attempt to restore the theme system would involve a massive crackdown of the dynatoi class, which most likely did not worth the trouble.

Or alternatively have an external power ravage Anatolia, before the empire decide to fill the void with settlers from Europe. This is what happened more or less after the last Roman-Persian war: the old Roman aristocracy had been really crippled by that war, thus allowing the emperors to manage the now available lands as they wished. Somehow cripple the Anatolian landowners without permanently crippling the empire and you get your chance for the restoration of the old Themes.

Situation probably would have been way better if the Komnenians didn’t let the Doukas take the throne to begin with.

Definitely.