'Over by Christmas'

Russian Steamroller

The best for the war to end with an Entente victory early (< 9 months) is on the Eastern Front. One possibility that some posters have mentioned is "No Tannenberg" Another less well known one that fascinates me is having Ludendorff decide to press on towards Warsaw in late Oct thereby falling into the trap Stavka had set. Ninth Army is enveloped by the Russians and most of it destroyed.
 
Having the Russians win seems the best method. Writing a plausible version of events where the German 8th army is effectively destroyed, rather than destroying the opposing Russian forces, is not difficult.

The problem is that presumerably Germany would withdraw an army or two from the Western front to resolve matters on the east. This would mean Germany doesn't have a numbers advantage on the Western front, so any attacks likely stall and she may have to go on the defensive, but it is doubtful French efforts to advance would be any more effectve. France and Britain doing better in the Race to the Sea might have long term consequences, but I don't think it would end the war in three months or fifteen.

Could the Russians, having swept through East Prussia, go on to crack the Oder and take Berlin? It is difficult to see it. On the otherhand it is possible, perhaps even probable, that they could capture Silesia. This might cause a political collapse in Germany, especially if news from the Western front is also not good (relief of Antwerp perhaps?). It seems unlikely though.

That would make 1915 decisive. Unfortunately in OTL German command simply made the Eastern front the priority and Russian armies were largely defeated in detail. Frencha and British attacks on the Western Front were ineffective. There seems little reason to believe the outcome would be different. Consequently the war continues on.
 
This is something I've been turning over in my head for a few months now, and I thought I would throw the question open for discussion on here.

The board is often flush with discussion of how the Germans could achieve fast victory on the Western Front in the First World War, but I don't remember seeing the reverse done. Is there any possibility of the Allies achieving a quick victory (i.e. before the end of 1915 at the latest) over the Germans? I've tried to come up with scenarios were it might have happened, but I've struggled, barring a combination of unlikely outcomes, so I'd be interested in seeing if anyone else has something to suggest.


stateless_englishman

Ignoring PODs some time before the war the only way I could see it happen is that the French have a clearer idea of what modern war will be like. [Not impossible and their war plan until only a year or so ago would have made the fundamental change].

Instead of making fruitless frontal assaults against well layed out fortifications they meet the German main force about on the Franco-Belgium frontier. Preferably digging in fairly straight away but if not they will almost certainly learn to do so soon.

The Germans on the other hand will have to attack because their entire plan relies on taking out France so they can switch forces to fight the Russians. Hence they will have to attack repeatedly into heavy opposition until they realise they aren't getting anywhere. By that time they will have taken very, very heavy losses and organisation, plans and moral will be seriously dented. French losses and the BEF when it arrives will also suffer but nothing like as badly.

Especially if this draws in other German forces, which is likely as they will be desperate to make the breakthrough, you could then see a counter attack which liberates most of Belgium and might push into Germany.

If it also means that forces aren't available to be sent east, or some other factor boosts the Russians against the Germans [say better co-operation between their two armies in Prussia and/or they screen the Austrians and throw their main weight against the Germans, then you might see a crisis in Germany.

If Russian forces are advancing into say Silesia and Prussia and the western powers are hammering on the door in the west then you won't get the Ottomans joining a sinking ship and central power moral could well collapse with a major loss of confidence and they ask for an armistice.

That's the only way I can see an entente victory by Xmas 1914 with the OTL start of war conditions.

Steve

PS - All the talk about other options via the Ottomans or keeping them neutral is irrelevant to the actual question you're asking as the war will be going drastically against the central powers before Enhva Pasha can drag them in, in which case his colleagues are likely to shoot him before he could do that.;)
 
What if the French use gas on day 1?

The French might predict that they are no match for Germany in a conventional fight and develop gas warfare years before. The Germans would most likely be unprepared for this and could give the French enough advantage to take the fight into Germany.
 
Keep the Ottomans neutral. Or better yet, get them in the Allied camp. Then you go up through Romania or the Balkans, nail Austria-Hungary, bob's your uncle, we're home in time for tea.
Whe have had Past threads about having the Ottomans join the Entrentre. Some fancy Diplomatic moves by the French and British, but Possible.

Instead of making fruitless frontal assaults against well layed out fortifications they meet the German main force about on the Franco-Belgium frontier. Preferably digging in fairly straight away but if not they will almost certainly learn to do so soon.
Or have the ASB's ISOT the Mairigot Line from 1939 to August 30 1914.
 
Kill Max Hoffman

When Hindenburg and Luddendorf arrived at the Eastern Front the local Operations Chief, COL Max Hoffman had allready written a plan that would lead to the huge victory of Tannenberg, and later the repeat performance at the Massurian lakes. if he had't been there, and Luddendorf hadn't came up with a decent plan, and the two russian commanders hadn't been so hugely out of their league, (triple if...) the russians could have reached Berlim, or the Germans could have had to (try to) stop the offensive and move large forces east.
Schliffen plan was based on Russia being unable to attack succefuly in the first weeks of the war. Reverse that, and the Germans loose in 1914.
 
The No Tannenburg scenario, with continuing Russian victories in the East is the best scenario. This was precisely what the Germans saw as their worst case scenario pre-war, as they thought they couldn't sustain war on two fronts.

As the war at this stage is more fluid than later, if the British and French can atttack well enough to slow the redeployment of the German's western forces, there is a very small window for the Russians to penetrate Cossacks deeply into Germany, and potentially throw the German war effort into chaos as they withdraw too may forces.
 
The simplest way for the war to be over by Christmas is for Britain to have allied with Germany. Somewhat ASB but not implausible. If the two countries had allied with each other against the French Empire instead of seeing each other as rivals then things could have gone very differently.
 
DuQuense

Ah but my idea is quite reasonable and as I understand it was the actual French policy until ~1 year before the war actually broke out.;)

Steve

Quite - it was only the replacement of Michel by Joffre in 1911 that allowed the cult of the offensive to be instilled in the French Army. Now this may have improved things at the tactical level but it was an unmitigated disaster at the strategic.

Michel's Plan XVI would have placed around 80,000 more men in the direct line of the German attack, would not have wasted tens of thousands of troops in the futile attacks in A-L and if a move to the strategic defensibve had been made earlier would have given Germany its own Battle of the Frontiers at the Franco-Belgian border

A misfiring Schlieffen combined with bad luck in East Prussia giving Russia a better result in the lakes could force Germany to reconsider it's war aims. However I suspect all it would do is change the trenchlines so that they favoured the Entente by a few tens of kilometres
 

Deleted member 9338

Keep the Ottomans neutral. Or better yet, get them in the Allied camp. Then you go up through Romania or the Balkans, nail Austria-Hungary, bob's your uncle, we're home in time for tea.


You can do this by not only giving them the two battleships they paid for but also offer them two pre-dreads.
 
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