In this scenario Reynaud manages to carry on resistance from Algeria, after the Battle of France.
This means "Free France" is the legitimate government based out of Algiers and it controls the French overseas Empire and Navy, and any collaborationist administrations the Germans set up in metropolitan France and Corsica are illegitimate.
While not enjoying quite as resounding a success as OTL, Germany is standing tall in the summer of 1940, having overperformed compared to WWI by conquering and occupying and exploiting France. Because of this apparent success and a belief the war was practically over, Italy declared war on France and Britain.
The British and French thrown off the continent are in no shape to re-invade it, and have to deal with Axis bombing. However, they can contain the Italians in Africa, and then wipe them out over the course of 1940-1941. Over that time though, they are in no shape to invade Italy or any of its main islands.
Germany is still trying to beat the west by bombing and submarine warfare.
The Fall of France, despite France's determination in exile, is still a massive shock to the US, boosting support for national security preparations and aid to the British.
In September, the Japanese sign the Tripartite Pact with the Germans and Italians, with the former trying to deter the Americans from intervening in China and the latter trying to deter America from intervening in Europe.
Other Far Eastern consequences:
1) The Japanese Army is getting more and more frustrated at resupply of the Chinese Nationalists through French Indochina.
2) Heavy Japanese pressure on the French Empire does result in cessation of aid deliveries to China through that route, but the French stand firm resisting any and all demands for Japanese military occupiers or "inspectors" to be stationed in French Indochina, which really pisses off the Japanese.
3) The Japanese Army and Navy begin making updated plans to take Indochina by force from October onward. The general idea is to surge forces into the French colony from Hainan, Canton and Taiwan, using land based air and carrier-based air to support the force.
4) Within a few weeks the Japanese planners reach the conclusion that there is no separating the French from the British and Dutch, so they adjust their plans for a series of rapidly succeeding advances to seize as much of Vietnam as possible in the first-go, followed as soon as possible by landing operations in British Borneo and Malaya, with the goal of eventually occupying all Southeast Asian European colonies.
5) By mid-November, 1940, the Japanese planners reach the conclusion there is no separating the European colonial powers from the USA, and the Philippines are needed to secure supply lines to the DEI. Also, the reelection of FDR demonstrates to the Japanese that they can expect the USA to continue to be supportive of countries Japan finds problematic, like China, Britain and France.
6) On the first Sunday of January, 1941, the Japanese launch a surprise offensive on all western positions within China, including Hongkong, Guam, the Philippines, Indochina and British Borneo.
The overall campaign plan is similar in many respects, and almost identical in goals, to Japan's OTL campaign of 1941-1942, to secure the southern resource area.
The key differences are:
a) The Japanese used the previous months to import as much oil and supplies and repatriate merchant shipping as possible, because Japan is only under a limited scrap metal embargo.
b) The Japanese do not have the full complement of carriers ready to launch the Pearl Harbor attack. Therefore, they launch no attacks east of the international dateline in this TL, and rely on their traditional approach of attriting an oncoming US fleet before decisive battle in the western Pacific. The easternmost target of the Japanese campaign is perhaps Wake, perhaps the Gilberts or perhaps Guam.
c) Since the Japanese do not have any bases in Indochina at the outset, they have to rely on land-based air support from Hainan and carrier based support until they can put captured airfields into commission. Malaya is not hit in the first go.
d) The Japanese occupy Vietnam and need to set up a collaborationist local administration from the start, a share of the French forces do a fighting retreat and guerrilla warfare from Laos and from China.
e) The Japanese ultimately occupy the FIC, the PI, DEI, force Thailand to switch sides, and capture Malaya and Singapore and Burma, primarily because the initial allied forces in the region were so scattered and weak. But the heavy costs and delays of getting this far mean they have no chance to penetrate into Burma past the Salween.
7) Having a Japanese ally, and glad to see the US under attack, in January 1941, Hitler now declares war on the US and lifts all restrictions on U-Boats.
8) The US is in the war a year early.
9) Since the US and WAllies are in no shape to threaten to invade the western or southern European coast yet in 1941, Hitler still proceeds to pursue his destiny of attacking the USSR.
.....
Fast-forward a couple years.
With more navy the whole time and earlier US mobilization, the Battle of the Atlantic is won earlier and D-Day is earlier. By summer 1943 at latest, or possibly autumn 1942. The Japanese are also faring more poorly on the Asian mainland.
WWII is ending earlier in Europe, possibly in 1943, definitely no later than spring 1944. Possibly the WAllies are meeting the Soviet significantly further east in Europe (because of their headstart, whereas the Soviets did not get one), or perhaps not (because the Germans balance their fronts making their enemies meet them in the middle).
Japanese defeat soon follows, whether it involves a bloody invasion or not..
What do you think? Where are the holes in this?
This means "Free France" is the legitimate government based out of Algiers and it controls the French overseas Empire and Navy, and any collaborationist administrations the Germans set up in metropolitan France and Corsica are illegitimate.
While not enjoying quite as resounding a success as OTL, Germany is standing tall in the summer of 1940, having overperformed compared to WWI by conquering and occupying and exploiting France. Because of this apparent success and a belief the war was practically over, Italy declared war on France and Britain.
The British and French thrown off the continent are in no shape to re-invade it, and have to deal with Axis bombing. However, they can contain the Italians in Africa, and then wipe them out over the course of 1940-1941. Over that time though, they are in no shape to invade Italy or any of its main islands.
Germany is still trying to beat the west by bombing and submarine warfare.
The Fall of France, despite France's determination in exile, is still a massive shock to the US, boosting support for national security preparations and aid to the British.
In September, the Japanese sign the Tripartite Pact with the Germans and Italians, with the former trying to deter the Americans from intervening in China and the latter trying to deter America from intervening in Europe.
Other Far Eastern consequences:
1) The Japanese Army is getting more and more frustrated at resupply of the Chinese Nationalists through French Indochina.
2) Heavy Japanese pressure on the French Empire does result in cessation of aid deliveries to China through that route, but the French stand firm resisting any and all demands for Japanese military occupiers or "inspectors" to be stationed in French Indochina, which really pisses off the Japanese.
3) The Japanese Army and Navy begin making updated plans to take Indochina by force from October onward. The general idea is to surge forces into the French colony from Hainan, Canton and Taiwan, using land based air and carrier-based air to support the force.
4) Within a few weeks the Japanese planners reach the conclusion that there is no separating the French from the British and Dutch, so they adjust their plans for a series of rapidly succeeding advances to seize as much of Vietnam as possible in the first-go, followed as soon as possible by landing operations in British Borneo and Malaya, with the goal of eventually occupying all Southeast Asian European colonies.
5) By mid-November, 1940, the Japanese planners reach the conclusion there is no separating the European colonial powers from the USA, and the Philippines are needed to secure supply lines to the DEI. Also, the reelection of FDR demonstrates to the Japanese that they can expect the USA to continue to be supportive of countries Japan finds problematic, like China, Britain and France.
6) On the first Sunday of January, 1941, the Japanese launch a surprise offensive on all western positions within China, including Hongkong, Guam, the Philippines, Indochina and British Borneo.
The overall campaign plan is similar in many respects, and almost identical in goals, to Japan's OTL campaign of 1941-1942, to secure the southern resource area.
The key differences are:
a) The Japanese used the previous months to import as much oil and supplies and repatriate merchant shipping as possible, because Japan is only under a limited scrap metal embargo.
b) The Japanese do not have the full complement of carriers ready to launch the Pearl Harbor attack. Therefore, they launch no attacks east of the international dateline in this TL, and rely on their traditional approach of attriting an oncoming US fleet before decisive battle in the western Pacific. The easternmost target of the Japanese campaign is perhaps Wake, perhaps the Gilberts or perhaps Guam.
c) Since the Japanese do not have any bases in Indochina at the outset, they have to rely on land-based air support from Hainan and carrier based support until they can put captured airfields into commission. Malaya is not hit in the first go.
d) The Japanese occupy Vietnam and need to set up a collaborationist local administration from the start, a share of the French forces do a fighting retreat and guerrilla warfare from Laos and from China.
e) The Japanese ultimately occupy the FIC, the PI, DEI, force Thailand to switch sides, and capture Malaya and Singapore and Burma, primarily because the initial allied forces in the region were so scattered and weak. But the heavy costs and delays of getting this far mean they have no chance to penetrate into Burma past the Salween.
7) Having a Japanese ally, and glad to see the US under attack, in January 1941, Hitler now declares war on the US and lifts all restrictions on U-Boats.
8) The US is in the war a year early.
9) Since the US and WAllies are in no shape to threaten to invade the western or southern European coast yet in 1941, Hitler still proceeds to pursue his destiny of attacking the USSR.
.....
Fast-forward a couple years.
With more navy the whole time and earlier US mobilization, the Battle of the Atlantic is won earlier and D-Day is earlier. By summer 1943 at latest, or possibly autumn 1942. The Japanese are also faring more poorly on the Asian mainland.
WWII is ending earlier in Europe, possibly in 1943, definitely no later than spring 1944. Possibly the WAllies are meeting the Soviet significantly further east in Europe (because of their headstart, whereas the Soviets did not get one), or perhaps not (because the Germans balance their fronts making their enemies meet them in the middle).
Japanese defeat soon follows, whether it involves a bloody invasion or not..
What do you think? Where are the holes in this?