Outline of an alternate WWII where France Fights On (FFO) from Algeria

What do you think of what I had the Japanese do here?

  • Disagree- Japanese would go north against USSR in '41, not south to Indochina in '40 if no Vichy

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Disagree- Japan would stay in China only, not mess w/FFO Indochina allied to UK, or USSR

    Votes: 3 18.8%
  • Disagree- Japan may strike south, but not as early as Jan 1941, maybe Nov-Dec '41 or later

    Votes: 3 18.8%
  • Disagree- Japan would strike south only against France, UK, DEI, not US, in '40 or '41

    Votes: 2 12.5%
  • Agree- Japan would move on Indochina by Jan '41 in frustration & that means fight US, UK, Dutch too

    Votes: 8 50.0%
  • (separate question) FFO from Algeria after losing French mainland is plausible

    Votes: 13 81.3%
  • (separate question) FFO from Algeria after losing French mainland is *not* plausible

    Votes: 1 6.3%

  • Total voters
    16
In this scenario Reynaud manages to carry on resistance from Algeria, after the Battle of France.

This means "Free France" is the legitimate government based out of Algiers and it controls the French overseas Empire and Navy, and any collaborationist administrations the Germans set up in metropolitan France and Corsica are illegitimate.

While not enjoying quite as resounding a success as OTL, Germany is standing tall in the summer of 1940, having overperformed compared to WWI by conquering and occupying and exploiting France. Because of this apparent success and a belief the war was practically over, Italy declared war on France and Britain.

The British and French thrown off the continent are in no shape to re-invade it, and have to deal with Axis bombing. However, they can contain the Italians in Africa, and then wipe them out over the course of 1940-1941. Over that time though, they are in no shape to invade Italy or any of its main islands.

Germany is still trying to beat the west by bombing and submarine warfare.

The Fall of France, despite France's determination in exile, is still a massive shock to the US, boosting support for national security preparations and aid to the British.

In September, the Japanese sign the Tripartite Pact with the Germans and Italians, with the former trying to deter the Americans from intervening in China and the latter trying to deter America from intervening in Europe.

Other Far Eastern consequences:

1) The Japanese Army is getting more and more frustrated at resupply of the Chinese Nationalists through French Indochina.

2) Heavy Japanese pressure on the French Empire does result in cessation of aid deliveries to China through that route, but the French stand firm resisting any and all demands for Japanese military occupiers or "inspectors" to be stationed in French Indochina, which really pisses off the Japanese.

3) The Japanese Army and Navy begin making updated plans to take Indochina by force from October onward. The general idea is to surge forces into the French colony from Hainan, Canton and Taiwan, using land based air and carrier-based air to support the force.

4) Within a few weeks the Japanese planners reach the conclusion that there is no separating the French from the British and Dutch, so they adjust their plans for a series of rapidly succeeding advances to seize as much of Vietnam as possible in the first-go, followed as soon as possible by landing operations in British Borneo and Malaya, with the goal of eventually occupying all Southeast Asian European colonies.

5) By mid-November, 1940, the Japanese planners reach the conclusion there is no separating the European colonial powers from the USA, and the Philippines are needed to secure supply lines to the DEI. Also, the reelection of FDR demonstrates to the Japanese that they can expect the USA to continue to be supportive of countries Japan finds problematic, like China, Britain and France.

6) On the first Sunday of January, 1941, the Japanese launch a surprise offensive on all western positions within China, including Hongkong, Guam, the Philippines, Indochina and British Borneo.

The overall campaign plan is similar in many respects, and almost identical in goals, to Japan's OTL campaign of 1941-1942, to secure the southern resource area.

The key differences are:

a) The Japanese used the previous months to import as much oil and supplies and repatriate merchant shipping as possible, because Japan is only under a limited scrap metal embargo.

b) The Japanese do not have the full complement of carriers ready to launch the Pearl Harbor attack. Therefore, they launch no attacks east of the international dateline in this TL, and rely on their traditional approach of attriting an oncoming US fleet before decisive battle in the western Pacific. The easternmost target of the Japanese campaign is perhaps Wake, perhaps the Gilberts or perhaps Guam.

c) Since the Japanese do not have any bases in Indochina at the outset, they have to rely on land-based air support from Hainan and carrier based support until they can put captured airfields into commission. Malaya is not hit in the first go.

d) The Japanese occupy Vietnam and need to set up a collaborationist local administration from the start, a share of the French forces do a fighting retreat and guerrilla warfare from Laos and from China.

e) The Japanese ultimately occupy the FIC, the PI, DEI, force Thailand to switch sides, and capture Malaya and Singapore and Burma, primarily because the initial allied forces in the region were so scattered and weak. But the heavy costs and delays of getting this far mean they have no chance to penetrate into Burma past the Salween.

7) Having a Japanese ally, and glad to see the US under attack, in January 1941, Hitler now declares war on the US and lifts all restrictions on U-Boats.

8) The US is in the war a year early.

9) Since the US and WAllies are in no shape to threaten to invade the western or southern European coast yet in 1941, Hitler still proceeds to pursue his destiny of attacking the USSR.

.....

Fast-forward a couple years.

With more navy the whole time and earlier US mobilization, the Battle of the Atlantic is won earlier and D-Day is earlier. By summer 1943 at latest, or possibly autumn 1942. The Japanese are also faring more poorly on the Asian mainland.

WWII is ending earlier in Europe, possibly in 1943, definitely no later than spring 1944. Possibly the WAllies are meeting the Soviet significantly further east in Europe (because of their headstart, whereas the Soviets did not get one), or perhaps not (because the Germans balance their fronts making their enemies meet them in the middle).

Japanese defeat soon follows, whether it involves a bloody invasion or not..


What do you think? Where are the holes in this?
 

Grey Wolf

Gone Fishin'
Donor
Won't Germany occupy the entirety of France in this scenario?

Also, with Algiers/Tunis active enemy participants, they might be more wary of getting involved in trying to save Mussolini's bacon in Libya

Just a couple off-the-top of my head thoughts
 
Don't see a Vichy France in this though perhaps some collaborationist activity - somebody will always be wanting to make a buck.
Without France surrendering the peoples of occupied Europe will be more inclined to start sabotage early on. Tying up more German troops/SS units in occupation duties. Less French aircraftfactories utilized to build Luftwaffe aircraft - and those built sabotaged!
You didn't mention Greece or Yugoslavia - what happens there? No Marita-Merkur? No Crete so the Fallschirmjäger ready for Barbarossa - but where to deploy them?
 
Without DeGaulle there's probably some reforms in the colonies. Weather or not decolonization comes into play, is peaceful or... otl, depends on those reforms.

North africa likely goes better with France still actively in the fight but it was a success anyway and I don't know much military history so...
 

marathag

Banned
The Fall of France, despite France's determination in exile, is still a massive shock to the US, boosting support for national security preparations and aid to the British.
And French, since they are seen as the legitimate government, and US C&C orders are delivered to N.A., rather than the UK taking those orders
 
Won't Germany occupy the entirety of France in this scenario?

Yes

Also, with Algiers/Tunis active enemy participants, they might be more wary of getting involved in trying to save Mussolini's bacon in Libya

Probably- or even if they try, they may be less successful. Or, if they throw alot of Italian Air Force, Navy and Ground Forces, plus German ground forces and Luftwaffe at the problem, they may try invading Tunisia from both Libya and the sea to secure lines of control. This could be an alternate occasion besides Crete for heavy attrition of Axis airborne troops. Regardless - whether the Germans throw anything into the breach or not, the Axis will underperform in Africa compared to OTL.

You didn't mention Greece or Yugoslavia - what happens there? No Marita-Merkur? No Crete so the Fallschirmjäger ready for Barbarossa - but where to deploy them?

I doubt Mussolini has the time/energy/resources to mess with Greece here, so the both of them remain intimidated neutrals through the first half of the war.

Tying up more German troops/SS units in occupation duties. Less French aircraftfactories utilized to build Luftwaffe aircraft - and those built sabotaged!

Yes, more resistance and sabotage, but let's not overestimate what that can accomplish and the amount of useful, non-sabotaged production the Germans can secure from the French by force and threats, and the human need to make a living.

Without DeGaulle there's probably some reforms in the colonies. Weather or not decolonization comes into play, is peaceful or... otl, depends on those reforms.

North africa likely goes better with France still actively in the fight but it was a success anyway and I don't know much military history so...

I hadn't thought about the long-term knock-ons for colonial affairs. Interesting question. I don't have an opinion that it's definitely going to make things go more positively or negatively.

And French, since they are seen as the legitimate government, and US C&C orders are delivered to N.A., rather than the UK taking those orders

Yes, the French forces will be receiving orders. Britain will be the priority customer, and the priority Allied position, but not the only one.
 
Last edited:
Added a poll.

The main question I asked is if you agree with what I had the Japanese doing in this outline, and if not, what they do instead. (so pick any *one of A through E)

I allow two responses, because I have additional responses, F & G, on whether France fighting on from Algeria is plausible at all.

There is a further question I will add in the text here.

If France fights on from the empire - this won't automatically prevent the Italian declaration of war, will it?
 
In this scenario Reynaud manages to carry on resistance from Algeria, after the Battle of France.

This means "Free France" is the legitimate government based out of Algiers and it controls the French overseas Empire and Navy, and any collaborationist administrations the Germans set up in metropolitan France and Corsica are illegitimate.

What do you think? Where are the holes in this?


You might find this board

https://www.tapatalk.com/groups/francefightson/

of interest....

Regards,
 
There is a further question I will add in the text here.

If France fights on from the empire - this won't automatically prevent the Italian declaration of war, will it?

I really don't see why Italy wouldn't make their DOW to the Allies as OTL on 10. June 1940. As per our discussion earlier in the year I would still expect defeat in Northern France. If the French is able to seriously upset the German timetable it would be another matter.
 
but the French stand firm resisting any and all demands for Japanese military occupiers or "inspectors" to be stationed in French Indochina, which really pisses off the Japanese

The governor of Indochina's (Catroux) advice was to delay but accept pretty much all Japanese demands. This was before any fall of France. As I understand it Decoux was very similar, my question is what changes here that means Decoux or Catroux are better or worse (depending on your viewpoint) at stalling? If anything Free France would presumably feel in an even worse position and more likely to allow inspections and occupation.
 
The governor of Indochina's (Catroux) advice was to delay but accept pretty much all Japanese demands. This was before any fall of France. As I understand it Decoux was very similar, my question is what changes here that means Decoux or Catroux are better or worse (depending on your viewpoint) at stalling? If anything Free France would presumably feel in an even worse position and more likely to allow inspections and occupation.

I think the Free French will not permit an occupation of their territory. Unlike Vichy, they will have the right to reinforce, even if limited ability. They will be doing joint planning with the the British, not practically fighting against them. They will draw the line against letting Japanese troops into French Indochina, it would be too depressing for Free French morale. Britain will not want them to yield bases to Japan. The French will fear disappointing the United States, on whom they increasingly depend. IMHO.
 

Driftless

Donor
I'm not sure how to do the calculations on this: IF the French Navy (MN) is still in the fight, much of their power would likely be focused in the Med - that's largely where the ships were designed to fight. Combine that fleet with the normal British Mediterranean fleet and the Italians are seriously overmatched to the point where re-supplying North Africa is very difficult. Perhaps some of the longer-legged French Battlecruisers and cruisers remain in the Atlantic or even have South Asia duties.

That additional allied resource allows the RN more wiggle room on where their forces are allocated. IF the Norway Campaign plays out as it did historically, then the heavy units of the Kriegsmarine are pretty beat up for some months. The RN had heavy damage as well, but they had a much higher level of reserves to use as backfill. Does that allow for more anti-sub forces for the North Atlantic? More forces for South Asia?

With the French Air Force and Army regrouping in North Africa, the Germans and Italians still need to shade some forces in that direction. Would the Luftwaffe supplement the Italians in Libya to attack the French? Even if that doesn't happen, would the Germans still be looking over their shoulder and avoid the Battle of Britain (as we know it). That was to be a prelude to invasion, which really seems unlikely under the conditions of the OP.
 
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