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It almost did. OTL, the 2nd Marines lost 30% of their numbers before they ever got ashore. By evening of the first day, they were clinging to a narrow strip along the beach. The Americans were in a parlous situation, and they knew it. A few hours after the landing, one of the Marine colonels radioed back, "outcome in doubt".

It was. A determined attack might have pushed the invaders back into the sea. The Japanese had rough parity in numbers and plenty of weapons and ammo. They even had -- for almost the only time in the Pacific War -- armor superiority; all but three of the American tanks had been destroyed before reaching the beach, while the Japanese had a number of small but perfectly functional tankettes.

What they didn't have was a commanding officer. In one of the Pacific War's strangest strokes of fortune, Admiral Shibasaki and most of his staff had been killed by a single destroyer shell on the afternoon of the first day. Shibasaki was shifting his command from one bunker to another; keen-eyed American spotters saw a group of Japanese on the move, and the destroyer got a clean hit. Not only did they kill Shibasaki, but it seems that they killed or wounded almost all of his staff, so that the rest of the defenders didn't even know their commander was gone.

So [handwave] have that spotter blink at the wrong moment, so that Shibasaki gets away.

Organizing the defense wouldn't be easy; the Japanese communication lines were cut by shellfire, so they had to use runners. But Shibasaki seems to have been a competent commander, his soldiers were veterans, and Japanese doctrine at this point was to wipe the invaders out on the beach. So he gets his men organized, orders a counterattack... and by midmorning, the best of the Second Marine Division is dead, and Tarawa firmly back in Japanese hands.

Now what?

The knock-on effects will be fairly huge. OTL, Tarawa was the first major assault against an enemy-held atoll. It was a shakedown run for weapons, landing gear, and tactics. If it fails, the US advance in the Central Pacific will be held up, possibly for months. There would also be major effects on the morale and strategy of both combatants.

I have some thoughts, but I'd like to hear what others think first. Anyone?


Doug M.
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