And it goes on like that until one side wears the other down, or another issue gains prominence. The DAR will likely assure it's the latter; Bavarians are German and any ifs or buts around that are bourgeois nationalism at best and counter-revolutionary conspiracy towards abandonment of the class position at worst. Granted this might play well for Bavarian nationalists who've fled from the DAR and are looking for an audience. Austria might have voted heavily in favour of joining Germany but Bavaria is actually the "first victim."
"Our Struggle": What If Hitler Had Been a Communist?
- Thread starter The Red
- Start date
And it goes on like that until one side wears the other down, or another issue gains prominence. The DAR will likely assure it's the latter; Bavarians are German and any ifs or buts around that are bourgeois nationalism at best and counter-revolutionary conspiracy towards abandonment of the class position at worst. Granted this might play well for Bavarian nationalists who've fled from the DAR and are looking for an audience. Austria might have voted heavily in favour of joining Germany but Bavaria is actually the "first victim."
Or more likely, show you what not to do. Instead of turning on the whole peasantry, I think there's potential to build up on the disgruntled people who end up back where they started due to capitalist consolidation, especially since you have successes of voluntary collectivization to show that wasn't a given. The land question is much less central to Germany because of its more developed proletariat, anyway. Stalin justified it to himself and the party by claiming crash industrialization was needed because of soviet isolation and backwardness.
I expect to see more of the large estates dissolved but there's no reason to create upheaval by breaking the alliance with the poorer peasants here.
Also, the German communists have an actual full fledged agrarian movement to contend with. Any campaign against the few people winning in a program the Rural People's Movement already doesn't trust is just going to be taken as proof that the Communists care less about helping rural people than about maintain absolute control, to let no one but themselves determine the pace or outcome of events
That line from de Gaulle's chat with Petain seems very appropriate here-- that the fascists have become more extreme than the Bolsheviks they claim to oppose. In both Germany and in Austria, it's the fascists that have shown themselves to be unable to compromise their ideals to anything-- to other parties, to non-partisan ideals of sovereignty. It's the fascists that go out and spill a whole lot of blood before their contradictions destroy them. Italy has somehow managed to become more of a threat to what the moderates hold dear than the Soviet Union itself. But even though the fascists will be spending some time in the political wilderness, they may come out of it stronger than ever as when the winds shift back in their favor due to communist successes in the Second World War they will have the prestige of being the first responders to the Red Menace, and will also be more assured of what they want-- and perhaps be greeted warmly by the advocates and planners of total war, the bureacurats and militarists, who need only a counterpart in the civilian government to realize their vision. I am very intrigued by the possibility of Mussolini losing this war or the next and getting overthrown but Mosley picking up his torch for some DIRECT RULE FROM LONDON.
Aside from that, the true winner of events is obviously Ethiopia; they might even be able to nab Eritrea soon. And actually, have the Italians even managed to capture Omar al-Mukhtar? He only got captured and executed in 1931; with the Italian involvement in Germany maybe some supplies got taken out of Libya to help along the Third Reich? The first great anticolonial victory could some very soon (unless of course the British spoil the fun by invading from Egypt...)
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Chapter CVII
Even relatively benign and temporary authoritarianism that rests upon elected power is being challenged. We are moving rapidly towards a situation where the pressure for the redistribution of political power will have to be faced as a major political issue. In a world where authoritarianism of the left or right is a very real possibility, the question of whether ordinary people can govern themselves by consent is still on trial—as it always has been, and always will be. Beyond parliamentary democracy as we know it, we shall have to find a new popular democracy to replace it.
~ Tony Benn
~ Tony Benn
House of Commons, Westminster; July 1932
“The Right Honourable Neville Chamberlain!”
There was a large cheer from the Tory section of the opposition benches following the Speaker’s call, mixed with the more muted shouts of derision from the government benches across the floor. The Leader of the Opposition rose to speak, looming over the dispatch box towards the Prime Minister.
John Strachey couldn’t remember the last time he had seen the chamber so busy for a foreign policy debate. What were generally quiet affairs conducted by the foreign secretary had now brought what seemed to be the vast majority of parliamentarians along for it. This was a logistical nightmare when the government barely consisted of more than 150 MPs, there was a minimal chance of getting a seat on the other side of the house when competing with over 400 other people. This was unfortunate after having had to hurry to make the debate at all, his legs now craved a seat.
John had been splitting his time that week between parliamentary business, constituency work, and the opening meetings of the International Revolutionary Marxist Centre. He had been attending the latter all morning and thus was left standing with over a hundred others inside the Chamber. He had got in just as the Prime Minister had given a short update on the international disarmament conference ongoing in Geneva and now it was time for questions.
“Will the Prime Minister enlighten the house with what he believes to be the main points of contention between the major powers?”
“The ongoing matter is once again that of the overall percentage of the world's armaments the great powers limit themselves to. Various calculations have been made but there is now a difference on accounting for a global figure or one between each nation. There has been some talk nonetheless that no concrete decisions will be made until after the American elections in November, after which time we will have a clearer picture of what can be achieved.” Lloyd George replied.
Although John’s focus had been on the coming together of Marxist parties outside of the Communist and Socialist Internationals, the Geneva conference was unique in its own way. For the first time in history, every major world power was in attendance at a disarmament conference and had agreed to discuss the means and terms in which another major war could be prevented from happening ever again.
It was something many had dreamed of for centuries but in the aftermath of the slaughter of the Great War it was more prescient than ever. Such a disaster couldn’t be allowed to happen again. Now the man who had led the British Empire to victory in that war was tasked with ensuring there would never be another, and fixing the mess of the post-war settlement he was also partially responsible for. If he could pull this off it would be a victory for humanity as a whole but also a major one for his fledgling government, which the Tories were now keen to bring down.
Stanley Baldwin, the long suffering Conservative leader, had finally given up his post after the National Government had failed to gain a majority in the previous October’s election. He had been replaced by Neville Chamberlain, who had reinvigorated his party and now seemed ready to try and force another election. This had caused the Action-Liberal coalition to rely increasingly on the votes of the Labour party, whose reduced number of MPs sat uncomfortably on the opposition benches alongside the Tories. As leader of the largest party, and Leader of the Opposition, Chamberlain took priority when it came to questions. Regardless of how divided the opposition parties actually were.
“And would the Prime Minister not agree that there is also a need for clarity from the Russian delegation, given the events reported in this afternoon’s edition of the Evening Standard?”
“I have not had the pleasure of reading this afternoon’s Evening Standard.” Lloyd George appeared to be unfazed although many in the chamber were genuinely curious. The Evening Standard, controlled by Max Beaverbrook, had thrown its support fully behind the Tories after Chamberlain’s assumption of the leadership. It was likely the Leader of the Opposition had been privy to what would be in the paper long before anyone else would have had a chance to read it, and prepare accordingly.
“Well then I shall enlighten the Prime Minister!” Chamberlain announced with a coy grin, holding up a copy of the paper in one hand before brandishing it at the government benches. He had a certain youthful energy about him in spite of being more than sixty years of age, only a few years younger than Lloyd George himself.
“The Russian army has been found to have been operating within north-eastern China and, along with their Chinese fellow travellers, assaulting Japanese delegations. Would it not seem that there is clarity needed as to whether the Russian delegation should have as much right to a voice in setting world standards as the Japanese?”
There were even louder jeers from the Tory benches but the Prime Minister remained calm, bemused even. If this was news to him he seemed keen to not let it show.
“I would advise the right honourable gentleman not to believe everything he reads in the papers. Especially the Tory ones.” That got a laugh from many sections of the house but Chamberlain was dauntless.
“So the Prime Minister denies there are Russian troops operating in China?”
“It is a developing situation which will be raised at the conference should such incidents become clear.”
“And in the same way the Prime Minister will not take the Russians to account for their aggression, will he continue to ignore the German rearmament going on within Russia whilst their delegation is also placated at the Geneva conference?”
Lloyd George shook his head, trying to remain oblivious to the jibes of his opponent.
“The right honourable gentleman should know that these claims are old and they are exactly the sort of issue the Geneva conference was established to deal with. In the words of the old legal saying, he who comes to equity must come with clean hands and he who asks for forgiveness of his debts must forgive his debtors.”
“It has been my lot to listen to many such anecdotes by the Prime Minister throughout my time in this place but never have I felt such foreboding. We are all under the shadow of a great and imminent menace. Bolshevism, in a form more stark and terrible than ever before, is staring us in the face. The Prime Minister’s response is to go to them open handed, to make the offer of sacrificing our security for no clear return and waiting for our allies to do the same. Is this in any way connected with his government’s reliance on Labour support? Are we perhaps seeing another Zinoviev letter’s instructions play out?”
There were roars of outrage from all corners of the chamber before the Speaker finally interjected to restore order. John couldn’t muster the energy to indulge in the animalistic grunts himself, his legs felt increasingly strained and he looked longingly at the half-empty government benches.
If he had remained within the Action party he would be sitting down right now, he might even have been a minister. Instead he was watching the usual pantomime play out, with both sides of the house emphasising their anti-communist credentials. There was no doubt the Geneva conference would suffer for this but such had been the way of Parliament for sometime. The Action party had become comfortable in that role, just like the Tories, the Liberals, and Labour before them.
John realised there was no going back. To cross the floor back over to Action now, as a member of the ILP, would only make Chamberlain’s case for him. It seemed as if the Leader of the Opposition was planting the seeds for a vote of no confidence but it would be something that would take time for him to work on. The Labour party were in no state to contest another election but their votes were needed to cause one. In the meantime there would be more of these theatrics until the government could perhaps be made unable to function entirely.
John departed from the chamber and decided to return to the revolutionary conference going on elsewhere in the capital. Increasingly it seemed like parliamentary sessions were keeping him away from spending time on politics.
---
The cartoon is by Leonard Raven-Hill for Punch magazine
xsampa
Banned
So maybe Russian Action in China is the cause of WW2 combined with fears of German troops on the channel
xsampa
Banned
It seems like Japan will be a full member of the Alliance against Communism instead of a cobelligerent. This means no Pacific War, no Australian turn to the US for defense, no island hopping and political changes, and Japanese Micronesia remaining as is. The Pacific will continue to be subordinate to European and Japanese rule and client age.
Southeast Asia as well, although the independence of India and the PH will continue to complicate relations between the SEA colonies and the exile govts
Southeast Asia as well, although the independence of India and the PH will continue to complicate relations between the SEA colonies and the exile govts
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That's true but it's also part of the problem in that the poorer peasantry aren't as essential to the DAR's worldview and thus what the agricultural labourer has to do to assist or, in some cases, become the industrial labourer can be treated as a secondary contradiction.
That's a good point, with everything going on with the Italian army on the Austrian there would undoubtedly be butterflies in Libya. Although the brutal Italian tactics by this point had the Senussi on the backfoot, if al-Mukhtar evades capture I could see them fighting to the bitter end. Or perhaps holding out in hope of the conflict expanding.
It's worth noting that Mosley's Action party is the junior partner in a minority government so to what extent he can really shape imperial policy at this stage is questionable. Action is like it's OTL equivalent, the New Party, in being primarily focused on the economic matters of the day and although one of its MPs has ended up as Foreign Secretary there is a focus on walking a consensus line, which Eden proved himself to be adept at IOTL.
I don't know if the Japanese would be happy playing second fiddle in a largely Occidental alliance but there probably will be some recognition that it's better to hang together than hang separately. They'll still be keen to take matters into their own hands and carve out advantages for themselves where possible.
The Japanese mindset should be changed drastically by the events in Germany. OTL the most influential of the statist bureaucrats who were attracted to the Control Faction and helped assemble the total-war apparatus in first Manchuria and Japan itself were graduates from Tokyo Imperial University specializing in German law (the English law graduates eventually drifted toward the same group, but remained a bit more eclectic compared to the uncompromising statism of people like Nobusuke Kishi). Well, now the statists have been rightly embarrassed by the total collapse of the old German law and army they took as their model, and the flashier terrorists are presented with a very bleak view of what terrorism can realistically achieve in Austria. The Emperor's last-minute save at Mukden may come to be reevaluated as an almost divine reprieve from national embarrassment, especially by the sections of the military most eager to reaffirm their loyalty. The foaming-at-the-mouth radicals and the more measured intellectual types are facing demoralization from every possible angle, which will of course require them to return to intellectual roots and decide what their priorities really are.
Those priorities are: Recognition by the world, and guarantees on the supply of resources. Before they might have said that the only way to achieve both is to wage and win a total war, but that has been delayed. Being recognized as a vital part of an international alliance might be a mixed bag, importance is both assigned and denied in some measure, and Japan might even think it unnecessary since it's driven its own Communist party underground and enacted anti-leftist political rules. But as for the second... well, an unbreakable alliance with America would at least make Manchukuo unnecessary, don't need to conquer oilfields when you can more or less have oil on tap. If anything, the transformation that a lot of these 30s war-planners underwent in the 50s may happen twenty years ahead of schedule-- faced with the prospect of getting all the resources they want at the flick of a pen, even a hardened totalitarian like Kishi might say (and this time without an intervening stay in war-crime prison) "we're all democrats now."
Psuedo-democratic Japan still in possession of its empire is kind of a scary thought. It'd be the South Africa of the East.'
EDIT: In some ways I feel like the parallel plot with the far-right reminds me a bit of Reydan's Paris Commune Timeline-- except instead of the question being "What does communism look like without Marx" it's "what does fascism look like without Hitler" lmao.
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A Japanese invasion of SEA is hard to imagine without the preceding circumstances of a war in China and diplomatic isolation from the West (although the Japanese may not be happy about their contribution to WW2 once again being minor conquests on the eastern fringes of a European war, picking at Siberia and the like without even having Manchuria as a staging area). But the Japanese occupation of SEA was a pivotal moment in its history, more or less every modern government had to figure out how to deal with this new presence and, well, the attitude wasn't always principled opposition. With outcomes ranging from a more benign Pan-Asianism or total Japanese disinterest in the region, but excluding the confusing experience of horrific-colonialism-in-liberation's-name... SEA's just gonna be weird, that's all I think we can say right now.
Another interesting influence on SEA could be China, with its large and politically active (some of the earliest KMT supporters, even before Xinhai!) disapora. Hell maybe the KMT's inner factions enter a similar kind of crisis as the Japanese militarists, following such a drastic change in their own German benefactor. Maybe Wang Jingwei can lead the Left KMT to be something other than a national disgrace.
EDIT: Never mind, turns out Wang was already becoming pro-Axis as early as 1927 after becoming resentful of the CCP lmao
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The fascists don't have time for it, but have the communists considered making any children's movies?
en.wikipedia.org
Hitlerjunge Quex (film) - Wikipedia
en.wikipedia.org
Isn't it possible we could see Japan seize Indonesia and Indochina as 'protective measures' after France and the Netherlands fall? All perfectly above the board from the point of view of the British and Americans (who really need those Japanese guns and their Fleet bottling up the Soviets), its just that the Japanese either never have to leave because the Reds win the war OR decide that they are very comfortable here post-capitalist victory.
Why would Tokyo seize the DEI and Indochina when they could get just buy the resources from them instead? The whole reason for the strike south was because the US had cut Japan off from its resources, leaving Japan the options of either de-escalating the China conflict or striking South. No sanctions, no freezing of Japanese assets, and with a much delayed War in China (considering the Mukden incident just got butterflied)Tokyo can continue to feed her industries and support the IJA and IJN without having to drive a wedge between it and the West.
Chapter CVIII
Save for a handful of reactionaries, the people of contemporary China are all successors in the revolutionary cause to which Dr. Sun Yat-sen dedicated himself.
~ Mao Zedong, In Commemoration of Dr Sun Yat-sen
~ Mao Zedong, In Commemoration of Dr Sun Yat-sen
Jiangsu Provincial Library of Chinese Studies, Nanking; July 1932
Robert Oaks felt dazed even whilst trying to maintain his concentration on the large collection of documents in front of him. He felt as if he was fighting a losing battle against the great tide of Chinese history. Much of his time spent so far in the Nationalist capital of China had been in trying to make sense of the political situation on the ground, or even just its context. The rays of the glorious day outside crept through the reading rooms shutters, which were meant to keep out the sun. Robert felt like he was being enticed outside even as he tried to engross himself as to where this country was truly going.
He was in the oldest public library in China but despite its ancient texts it had been established in Robert’s lifetime. It was perhaps a fitting nod to the ways in which the common citizen had risen to the forefront of Chinese society since the beginning of the twentieth century. At least theoretically.
Robert had believed that German politics had been complicated but now he yearned for the simplicity of a mere three or four Marxist parties. He had more or less managed to get his head around the ruling party, led by Chaing Kai-shek. This was the Kuomintang, or the Nationalists as most of his western friends insisted on calling them, who proclaimed themselves to be the upholders of the Three Principles of the People. These took the form of Chinese nationalism, democracy, and an economy based around the welfare of the people and had been devised by Dr Sun Yat-sen, the Chinese George Washington, at the beginning of the century.
The Nationalists stated themselves to be the upholders of his legacy and the only legitimate government in China however their authority over much of China existed in the form of warlords aligned to their regime. Where it existed at all. This was where it was hard to piece together who exactly was meant to be in control of China. Even in Nanking itself Robert couldn’t see much evidence of the Three Principles of the People being applied despite the Nationalist’s rhetoric.
It seemed that these principles were goals that were still to be attained through aggressive attempts at industrialisation similar to what the Japanese had achieved in the previous century. However this attempted road to freedom and prosperity was marred by corruption, lack of centralised planning and foreign intrigue, often caused by the Japanese themselves. It was the sort of situation that, in trying to investigate it, seemed to become more complex rather than less.
Robert decided he had enough for one day and checked his watch. He was devoted to these studies but seeing the time he was happy to bring them to an end for one day, leaving his books by the trolley before heading through the library’s modern halls where the sunlight reflected more pleasantly. He had an appointment to keep with a new friend he had made in a local tea room but was glad for the chance to escape all the same.
Walking through the streets of Nanking was an enlightening experience although not always in a good way. On the one hand there was something magical about embracing the history of a city that had stood long before Christ, the remains of which could still be seen amongst a contemporary culture that remained very different from his own. The poverty, however, was also far more dire than anything he had ever seen in Germany, even amidst the hyperinflation, depression and civil war. The streets were filled with groups of beggars who seemed to have known nothing else their entire lives.
This, of course, was fertile ground for Communism.
The Communists also claimed to be the upholders of the Three Principles of the People although they had a different interpretation of what Dr Sun had meant. The Communists and Nationalists had worked together in the past against the warlords who plagued China but as that immediate threat had diminished their alliance had broken with it and they had become bitter enemies. Like Germany this had led to a Civil War, albeit a more protracted one. The Nationalists were easily the more powerful of the two sides but the Communists were able to exploit China’s vast countryside and the support of much of the rural peasantry to fight an unconventional but effective guerilla war. All the while, they attempted to spread their ideas in the cities amongst students and workers.
Robert had found something of a relief in seeing a hammer and sickle again. It was something he could relate to from past experience even if he was averse to the ideology it stood for. Impromptu demonstrations would spring up spontaneously with a speaker maybe getting half of a speech out before being beaten down by police. The Nationalists were also averse to the Communists after all and they were doing a much better job of dealing with them than von Schleicher ever had, or so it seemed.
The Nationalists themselves were an odd phenomenon to Robert, it seemed strange to see such a movement manifest itself in a country so ancient, yet with ideals which seemed more relevant to the previous century of American and European history. He realised his Americo-centric worldview made it inevitable he would find this odd, but he had managed to glean some understanding of them straight from the horse’s mouth. This was the man he was now looking for in entering the tea room.
Eventually Major Friedrich Krummacher popped his head out from a curtain at one side. Robert spotted his contact and Krummacher waved before beckoning him into the small, secluded area where the Major was sat with another man. Both were dressed in the light blue uniforms of the Nationalist army.
Krummacher had previously been involved with a Reichswehr mission to the Nationalist forces, providing training in exchange for a chance to develop their own theories and improve Sino-German economic relations at the same time. In this regard the military effort had become almost as important as the official German diplomatic mission in determining relations between the two regimes. Now the Reichswehr no longer existed and rather than attempt to join the People’s Guard or simply return home, Krummacher had opted to remain with the Nationalists.
The man was now a nationless adventurer helping to build a new nation on the other side of the world, it was a compelling story and made Krummacher an interesting person but beyond that he was German. After spending the best part of a decade in Berlin, Robert was glad there were still people in Nanking he could relate to beyond American businessmen. He felt Krummacher might have a fondness for him as well, even if it was clear the German was interested in the fact he was attached to the American embassy. Robert had no doubt the Major’s Chinese counterpart was here for the same reason.
“Professor Oaks, it is good to see you again. Allow me to introduce you to General Shao Baichang, he is the man we depend on for the defence of the capital, should the time come.”
“Let’s hope we don’t have to add that to the list of our worries just yet.” General Baichang quipped with a chuckle, before shaking Robert’s hand.
To Robert’s quiet surprise, the Chinese officer spoke excellent German.
“I have taken the liberty of arranging a meal whilst we talk.” The General continued with a gesture to what seemed to be a more junior officer who had appeared to have followed Robert in. It wasn’t long before the man had returned with a pot of tea and a plate of sponge cakes. Robert would have guessed it was a dessert by its appearance but urged on by the general he managed to fumble a piece into his mouth with two chopsticks. The doughy cakes had a sort of meaty gravy inside of them, they were savoury but delicious.
“Have you had much opportunity to sample our local cuisine Professor?”
“I am afraid my embarrassing chopstick technique gives me away, General.” Krummacher laughed at that, even as he displayed his own prowess with the implements.
“I became very well acquainted with German cuisine during my time there, I must say it took a while to work off. This is why I like tangbao so much, German pork and dumplings reminded me of it just as it now helps remind my German friends of their homeland.”
“It is a more welcome reminder than the shared Communist problem.” Krummacher replied somewhat awkwardly.
“Ah yes,” The General responded more naturally, he was clearly the better actor of the two.
“It has been a hard fight but we have their army trapped and they will soon be defeated on the battlefield. Which is precisely why Stalin is sending his bandits into the north, to put pressure on us to make another deal with his treacherous puppets.”
“And do you fear you may be forced to yield to these pressures General?” Robert made his enquiry in between mouthfuls of tangbao.
“Chiang Kai-shek would never allow it. We do have our left-wing of course but our Generalissimo is the greatest anti-communist in China. If not the world. Will is not our issue, economics are. If we were to have American support our Communist problems would disappear very quickly. “
Robert had assumed this was the point of the meeting but to hear it plainly spoken left him confused nevertheless. He might have been the State Department’s unofficial man in Nanking but here he was being treated as if he was the Secretary of State.
“I can pass on these thoughts of yours if you wish me to General however I would say that I doubt any advice from myself will carry much weight. My country is having elections in November after all, we may soon have a new administration and I have only been here for a few months.”
The upcoming elections were more straightforward than anything in Chinese politics. The Republicans were doomed, with President Hoover’s handling of the depression making it almost certain that Franklin D. Roosevelt, the governor of New York, would defeat Hoover and become President next year. Robert just hoped Roosevelt would be in power quickly enough to stave off a revolution stateside.
“Yes of course, your democracy is strong and that is something to be appreciated, we will do the same in China but that will happen sooner with your help Professor. I do not expect you to act as one man, history rarely changes upon the actions of an individual but if we can rely on a large number of esteemed Americans to relay the truth of what is happening in China, we may be getting somewhere.”
“I am a diplomat general, I can be relied upon to relay things to my government as truthfully as I see them.”
“That is all that I ask!” The General boomed, “And now I think it is time for something stronger than tea!”
---
The painting is Landscape by Song Meiling (Madame Chiange Kai-shek)
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Interesting update, nice to see what's going on in the rest of the world.
There are a lot of threads here on AH about what if Germany and China had kept their economic partnership going instead of Germany allying with Japan but I can't see Red Germany forming an alliance with Japan or China, unless of course China were to go communist a decade earlier.
Now there's a hell of a butterfly, one Mothra could be proud of.
There are a lot of threads here on AH about what if Germany and China had kept their economic partnership going instead of Germany allying with Japan but I can't see Red Germany forming an alliance with Japan or China, unless of course China were to go communist a decade earlier.
Now there's a hell of a butterfly, one Mothra could be proud of.
To be honest I'm a bit sceptical that this sort of crypto-Hegelian veneration of 'Prussian virtues' had maintained itself amongst the Japanese elites by this juncture, or at the very least such a belief in such had been separated from the destiny of the German nation. To otherwise follow that logic we would see a Germany that repeatedly made a mockery of their so-called Japanese allies, not only helping to build up the NRA but being one of the main sources of opposition to Japanese influence within the KMT at the same time, actively fighting with the NRA against the Japanese invasion until direct Japanese pressure on the Germans to desist. The Anglo-German Naval Agreement leaving Japan in the lurch at sea, then the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact leaving them in the lurch on land, signed at a time when Japan was fighting a heated border war against the Soviets which seemed like it may escalate, with the Japanese not even being consulted on either. And then there was the need for repeated Japanese diplomatic interventions in order for their subjects within Germany to be treated as the 'honourary Aryans' they Germans claimed to regard them as. This littany of distrust and outright betrayal should have doomed the Control Faction, if their radicalism had been tied to German success.
So here we have the Reichswehr who have not only been defeated by the United Front but didn't even have the decency to fight to the death. Instead they effectively surrendered at the expense of their own Emperor. This could be embarrassing to people who tied their political capital to the old German law and army but is it not also worthy of a deeper reflection that perhaps the Germans betrayed their own worthy virtues? After all the Wehrmacht's defeat at the hands of the Red Army and the 20 July coup attempt didn't exactly moderate the IJA.
That is possible but is it really to their benefit? Part of the Control Faction's clout over the way the Imperial Way was that they too were opposed to the liberals and moderates whispering in the Emperor's ear but they also had the added benefit of being sane. Granted you can take exception to the latter part (I certainly do) but that was the spiel all the same and if they change that to "After a period of introspection we have come to the conclusion that the liberals and moderates whispering in the Emperor's ear were right all along" I could see that actually benefitting the Imperial Way rather than leading to less foaming at the mouth overall.
IIRC Japan was also running out of hard currency at this juncture. That could be alleviated by a form of Lend Lease ITTL which in itself could be a good motivation for them not to stir things up or, conversely, become an object of resentment.
Thanks!
I think the DAR would go for it, their own history is based upon a United Front after all. Granted for that reason Chiang might be averse to it, given he had to be literally dragged kicking and screaming into accepting the Second United Front IOTL.
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Disclaimer, all I really know about this comes from the early chapters of this book which I admit I've not yet finished. Anyways, this sequence of events seems more like German hostility than German failure. Like the Japanese militarists could be mad at Germany for not being a help, but can't deny what their totalitarians are doing works for them-- so therefore it's a valid model of statecraft. it's not an outright worship of the Prussian model/Nazi exaggerations of it, so much as a perception that it endorses what they want for their own country. Other totalitarians were interested in Marxism as a similar sort of endorsement (but of course, they toss out the class struggle because what do you mean the Volk can't get along w/ each other???). The "German model" is an intellectual inspiration, one of many, for that group which came out on top in the Taishobowl.
But now Germany is, in the militarist view, neither helpful nor functional. And so if the Control Faction want to maintain the appearance of sanity, if that's an image they care about cultivating, they have to address this somehow, they can't plug their ears as easily as the Imperial Way might.
I'm not sure if this kamikaze mindset is quite as popular in the early 30s as the mid 40s. For one, instead of the Wehrmacht's defeat coming at a point when Japan is too far gone to just give up, it's coming at a point when they literally haven't even started-- they haven't taken Manchuria, so militarism as a policy (as opposed to Kita Ikki/Nissho rambling) has not yet begun. Without Manchuria people like Hideki Tojo and Nobusuke Kishi never get their first taste of high office. Without Manchuria particular corporate-military alliances (Nissan taking half the ownership/responsibilities of Manchu industry) may not be established either. There's plenty of bureaucrats and businessmen that drifted to the totalitarians out of the belief that it was the most efficient way to allocate resources (vindicated by the """success""" of Chinese slave-labor), and get Japan to the forefront of economic and scientific power. In these circumstances, when the ball of militarism is not yet rolling and there's seemingly good reasons to not begin rolling it, overly-managerial capitalism starts, as in the 1950s, to look better than out and out fascism.
For sure there's always going to be the ramblers screeching about fighting to the death, but cut off from the Imperial Court, from the nobility, from the new-money and the old-money businessmen, from the bureaucrats, and from their own comrades... yeah they can bomb shit and kill people but after a thorough defanging (and reaching an understanding with a government that doesn't hate them as such, just wishes they'd kill less politicians) they could be reduced to just another special-interest-group among many. It could be a kind of Fidesz-Jobbik relationship-- here, you stand to our right to make us look like centrists, and we'll occasionally make concessions to you.
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