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Recap of Election Night 2018

Good Evening. I'm Chris Wallace. Welcome to another Election Night in New England. Tonight: The Prime Minister is trying to hold on to power amid a fractured political left, with the rising star of Bernie Sander's Social Democrats. On his right the Conservatives under Elinor Carbone have been surging in all the polls. Can the Prime Minister hold on? Will Bernie Sanders do the impossible and claim the Prime Minister's chair? Or will Carbone win a landslide victory reminiscent of 2005?

I'm joined tonight by NECN's panel of experts, throughout the night we will track how you, the people, voted. In just under an hour's time the first exit poll will be released to the public.

As always, New England, this is your choice.


Chris Wallace: Let's first take a look at the seats Labour would be looking at picking up. Now, keep in mind if we are going off the polls being taken prior to the election it is unlikely Labour would be a serious contestant in these seats. However, they are listed here in the margins from the last election. As the first ridings begin to be declared after the polls close, we can get an indication if those polls are correct or not.

CW: One important thing to note here is that the Supreme Court had ruled Connecticut's ridings as unconstitutional. So while we will continue to show them here, all of the electoral boundaries have shifted so comparing them will not be possible tonight.

Tom Dudchik: Now the riding I will be watching the most out of this list is Northport-Kings Park. It's close enough to Brooklyn that there's a lot of people who work in the city, but it also has some working class appeal. If the Social Democrats start surging here Labour could be in real trouble tonight.

TD: Another one that I will be interested in Holyoke-Chicopee. The Conservatives have never been competitive in western Massachusetts Bay, and this riding was won by vote splitting. If they push forty, fifty percent here? Man, it's gunna be a quick night.

Tom Dudchik: Looking at the Conservatives, man, I don't know what to tell you if this whole board isn't blue by the end of the night. 2016 was a good year, not a great year, for the Conservatives. Chris Wallace: You think the swing will be beyond four percent?

TD: I think it will be beyond that, even if you were looking at it as a two-party vote. The Social Democrats will come into play here. Even if they only capture a couple of percentage points, that's the margin of victory in these ridings. That's what makes this so easy for the Conservatives to run off to a commanding night.

CW: Now which one of these ridings are the most interesting to you? TD: Look first I am going to be checking Saint John. Parti Francophone has put great effort into reinventing themselves, and this will be their true test.

Teresa Dufour (TDu): This is true, had it not been against the regulations, they would have changed back to the Acadian Party. TD: Exactly.

CW: Now in terms of seeing the vote splitting between Labour and the Social Democrats, where are you looking on this board? TD: Look, I'm going be looking at Danbury. This is one of the few ridings in Connecticut that didn't change in the redistribution. It has suburbs and a strong urban core. If the Social Democrats dominate in the urban areas and the Conservatives take the suburbs with Labour placing second or third, it will be a nasty night.

CW: Now how do you think the rural areas, like Connecticut-Sullivan, will go? TD: That's all up for grabs at this point Chris.

Chris Wallace: And now the million dollar, or should I say billion dollar? question: The Social Democrats. Tom Dudchik: They will be most competitive in areas that are under performing economically, such as downtown Brooklyn and areas of Boston. I could see them winning in some economically depressed rural areas. Teresa Dufour: Do you see them as a threat in Vermont?

TD: I don't think so. Labour has a stronghold on that province. Maybe Sanders can win a victory in Burlington, but that will be about the only one they can pick up in that province.

CW: Lawrence is on here I see

TD: The Social Democrats have campaigned really well here. After O'Dowd opened his house to victims of those gas explosions his stock has been meteoric. It's also one of the few clustered urban areas outside of the major six.

TDu: It will be interesting to see how the fight for Brooklyn turns out. Could the Conservatives even capture a lot of the seats there due to vote splitting?

CW: We will soon find out.

Chris Wallace: And now, as the Custom House Tower begins her chimes, I still cannot legally reveal the results of the exit poll. As soon as it strikes nine, we can make this information public.


Chris Wallace: And our exit poll is showing that the Conservatives, yes Elinor Carbone's Conservatives will form a majority government. Prime Minister Regan's Labour party will fall far behind, and the Sanders' Social Democrats will charge ahead to take their place. It will be a disappointing night for O'Finnigan and the Francophone Party, as they fall well short of their goal and only take three seats. Elizabeth May's Greens will even see a loss of a seat, down to two.

CW: Now this is just the exit poll, and it could very well change, but for now after all of the interviews we conducted we can confidently say that Elinor Carbone will be New England's next Prime Minister, the first female Prime Minister in the country's history.

Tom Dudchik: Look, this really isn't anything groundbreaking. We all knew the Conservatives would be walking away with a victory here. It's now a matter of how big it will be.

CW: Indeed. Thanks Tom, and stick with NECN throughout the night as we get the results of the ridings in. We expect the first one in about fifteen minutes time.

Chris Wallace: And now the race is on, who will be the first to declare? It's always a race between Needham-Foxborough in Massachusetts Bay and Middleboro—Bridgewater in Plymouth.


Chris Wallace: And we have this just in, yes, Needham-Foxborough.

Tom Dudchik: Wow. Let's take a look at this. We are seeing a surge in voter turnout. Jolitz won this riding in 2016 with twenty four thousand votes, and the Conservatives not only met that, they surpassed it by twelve thousand.

CW: This is beyond what I've seen, this is an unprecedented spike in turnout.

TD: There is a chance we could be seeing voters tiring of the constant back and forth between Labour and the Social Democrats. Some of the polling we've seen indicated that across the board people were against the bickering between the two parties.

Teresa Dufour: Another interesting thing to note is the collapse of the green vote. Cheryl Jacques ran in 2016, and then she managed nearly one and a half thousand votes. Tonight? Only five hundred and two.

TD: Yeah, this is why we've been showing such an underwhelming result for the Greens in the exit poll. But, Teresa, Chris? Seeing these numbers for the Conservatives... Wow!


Chris Wallace: Ah, and here we have Carbone's riding in now.

Tom Dudchik: This isn't surprising. She's a popular leader in a mostly rural district. There was some speculation she might do poorly because of how the redistricting was handled, but she seems to be soaring to victory here. This is going to be a safe seat for some time.

CW: We can add this to the long list of Conservative victories, at this point even the Greens are on the board with the declaration out of Cape Cod.


Chris Wallace: Here's an important one, Brooklyn Ward 16. This is a wealthier part of Brooklyn. It looks like the Conservatives will hold on to this one, but barely.

TD: Yeah. John Bush really isn't the most popular person for that job. His brother has sinking approval ratings in Long Island, and Brooklyn is starting to struggle due to their legislation. Regardless, this is good news for the Social Democrats, they've really captured a huge share of the vote here. It will be interesting to watch the rest of the results trickle in.

TDu: Normally once the first Brooklyn riding comes in, they start to come fast.


Tom Dudchik: Wow! Look at this in Adirondack! I've never seen this before.

Teresa Dufour: Could this be fallout from the Adirondack Government's recent plans to introduce more logging into the region?

Chris Wallace: That could be. TD: While it wasn't a Green victory, for them to pull such numbers in a city in Adirondack is truly stunning. Wow.

CW: And Labour lost their deposit.

TDu: For a city that mostly speaks French, they also soundly rejected the Francophones.


Chris Wallace: Here's the first real stunner of the night. Great Park, in the heart of the Adirondacks.

Tom Dudchik: Look, I think it's clear what's happening here. Premier McDonald made a stupid move politically, and his move cost both Labour and the Conservatives support federally. This does bode well for the Adirondack Liberals moving forward.


Tom Dudchik: The Prime Minister has held on to his seat, but with a very slim majority. In all his years as an MP, he's never had a majority this small. There was some talk that he could lose his riding, If he did his leadership time would certainly be over. Even with this reduced number, his time is up.

Chris Wallace: Indeed, already there have been Labour members saying they refuse to support Regan moving forward. Who could they now turn to?

Teresa Dufour: Kennedy?

TD: I dunno, Kennedy is rather young, and the Kennedy family is still known as being the "Conservative Family."

CW: Even with Caroline Kennedy being a prominent member of the Kirk Government?

TD: She was one of the most moderate members of the cabinet.


Tom Dudchik: This one is probably going to be the closest of the night, razor thin margin here!

Chris Wallace: It's starting to look like there's significant support for Labour still. Many of us were expecting to go into this seeing the Tories capture sixty per cent of the vote, and now here Labour still has some life in them.

TD: While it will help them in the Senate, it won't do much for their prospects in the House of Commons.


Chris Wallace: Let's take a step back for a moment here and check where the popular vote is at the moment. As you can see, the Conservatives have a commanding lead here, and the Social Democrats and Labour are close to tied.

Tom Dudchik: We still having urban ridings reporting in. We haven't talked about them all night, but take a look at the Republicans. They started out with a bang and ran candidates in nearly a hundred ridings. We haven't talked about them tonight, and no returning officer has even called their name, lumping them in with "other." A dismal showing.


Tom Dudchik: This one is actually a real shock to me. The Trudeau family is immensely popular in Brooklyn, he's the last one I would have imagined to lose his seat, and not only lose it, lose it badly.

Chris Wallace: Could this be connected to his leadership bid?

Teresa Dufour: I'm thinking it is this, and the fact that people have really been turned off by both Labour's message, and Trudeau's message personally. He is not seen as relatable to the average person in Brooklyn.


Chris Wallace: This one is going to hurt.

Tom Dudchik: Burlington was always going to be hard. Leahy held on during the 2005 wave election against Labour, he was the only Labour MP in Vermont during that time. I had myself put Sanders up to losing this seat.

Teresa Dufour: As we are seeing across the country, there is a pronounced surge for the Social Democrats, but mostly in the cities. They simply cannot get traction outside of these urban areas, except for Vermont?

Tom Dudchik: Look, Vermont has always been different. I'm not surprised that they are sweeping the province now. I'm very impressed with the Greens performance here, they will be a presence in this next Parliament.

CON 5,704,127 - 44.30%
LAB 3,681,790 - 28.59%
SDP 2,120,083 - 16.46%
GRN 760,521 - 5.91%
FRA 381,660 - 2.96%
OTH 229,399 - 1.78%

LABOUR: 30 Seats
GREEN: 4 Seats
I expect electoral reform will soon be popular within the Labour Party after the disastrous results for them (coming third despite having beaten the Social Democrats in the popular vote.)
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Chris Wallace: And we have this just in, yes, Needham-Foxborough.
Don't get me wrong, I'm pumped that my seat is first in, but I was under the impression that in the UK, the first seats in are usually ultra-safe seats in tightly clustered areas.
CON 5,704,127 - 44.30%
LAB 3,681,790 - 28.59%
SDP 2,120,083 - 16.46%
GRN 760,521 - 5.91%
FRA 381,660 - 2.96%
OTH 229,399 - 1.78%

LABOUR: 30 Seats
GREEN: 4 Seats
The magic of FPTP.
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Don't get me wrong, I'm pumped that my seat is first in, but I was under the impression that in the UK, the first seats were usually ultra-safe seats in tightly clustered areas.

Different counting methods. It is legal for either:

A town to administer the election results, counting all of them in their separate localities and submitting it to Elections New England, where it will then be declared.
All votes to be sent to one place (i/e a school) for the count to take place in and the Election Officer will declare it there.
What happened to Mark Levin, Rush Limbaugh, and Sean Hannity? (Levin and Limbaugh were born in Pennsylvania and Missouri, respectively; Hannity was born in NYC, but grew up on Long Island.)
@Kanan that was absolutely great to read. I love the blending of styles for the graphics (BBC and Sky); everything just looks so...real and professional. Awesome job!
Pollsters going to get fired en masse. How could they be THAT wrong. They got the percentages and the seats wrong for everyone and by a good margin also.


Pollsters going to get fired en masse. How could they be THAT wrong. They got the percentages and the seats wrong for everyone and by a good margin also.
Well, it is the first three-party election in New English History so their mechanisms aren't taking things like tactical voting into account.
I think my favorite part of the results is that, by my reading, the Greens have 4 MPs, the same as at dissolution, but none of their MPs were re-elected. Do I have that right, or did someone carpetbag to another riding? (Though I guess there aren't as many negative connotations with switching ridings in parliamentary, as opposed to presidential, democracies.)
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