I feel like the referendum's result won't be recognized simply because for a decision like this, a two percent difference isn't going to cut it. Perhaps a two-thirds convention might be created by the Supreme Court as the minimum threshold for secession- and I doubt the Canadian military would pull out of Quebec that quickly, despite what you've said.
OUI: Vive le Québec libre
- Thread starter DStecks
- Start date
The problem with the federalists not recognising the result is that they never specifyed prior to the vote that they would not accept a simple majority and the fact they participated in the campaign means that they recognised the validity of the referedum itself.
What this mean is that not recognising afterward the result would be seen by others as changing the rules post facto which would create ever more instability, something which neither the canadians nor the quebecois would want.
If the canadian government went *after* the result to the supreme court, it would perceived by local and international observers as a sign of being sore losers and even if you had a result from the judges that agreed with them, it would be seen as politically motivated and probably ignored.
I still maintain that apart from some grumbling, th canadian government would accept the result fairly quickly and try to negociate the exit of quebec in a way that would have cause the least ripples in the economy of Canada.
Bingo. The federalists never planning for a "yes" victory will probably screw them in the Supreme Court, since they never specified a necessary goal before the votes were tallied. Of course, a Supreme Court ruling would be months away, so there's other matters to deal with first.
I remember reading years ago that a speech was prepared for the prime minister in case of a "yes" victory but it was a short one that basically went "we have understood the message but it is not to break the country" and so on.
There was also apparently an unofficial meeting of some liberal MPs from outside Quebec 8 days before the vote lead by Brian Tobin about trying to get Chretien to step down in case of a Yes victory as being from Quebec and representing a ridding there would pretty much take away his legitimacy in negociations.
As for the military, there was a speech made in 1991 by Canadian Army Chief John de Chastelain in which he had said that "The Canadian Armed Forces' role is not to fight to preserve the unity of a country which we did not have the common sense or the will to maintain otherwise". The general had also stated that apart from invoking a State of Apprehended Insurection, it would be impossible for the Canadian government to legitimitaly deploy troops in Quebec.
(I found some notes I made years ago for a similar timeline)
It isn' t necessarily the federal government that might go to the Supreme Court though- if the federal government decides to partition Quebec, then the Quebec government might go to the Supreme Court, or alternatively residents in areas that strongly voted 'Non' might also take the case to the SCC.
the federal government cannot unilateraly partition quebec. Defining provincial borders is not part of their powers.
But in that transition period would Quebec continue to be seen as a province?
And what about that borders of 1867 issue that they might bring up?
In any case, they could certainly pressure groups within Quebec- they don't need to partition it outright.
I remember comments in the news media about how the equipment of the armed forces could have been split between Canada and an independent Quebec. I also recall some pro independence commentators not being very enthused about maintaining a significant military going forwards. In particular one comment that stands out In my memory concerned the commentators not wanting their share of the navy. I doubt there would have been much argument over how to divy up the armed forces especially as the land and air elements of the armed forces were downsizing in the early to mid 90's in any event.
Other than the CF18's, four destroyers and the new frigates there wasn't much worth arguing over anyways
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Update 3
BY PHIL RYAN | Traffic on border highways has become an endless gridlock, for the thousands of Anglophones now fleeing Québec following the referendum. Fearing how they believe an independent Québec may treat English-speakers, they have flooded into Ontario and New Brunswick border towns. Matthew Coon Come, Grand Chief of the Quebecois Grand Council of the Crees, released a statement that his people would not be vacating their homes in the north of Québec, and would be standing firm in their ancestral lands. The Grand Council of the Crees has long opposed separation, and have insisted that they sit in on any negotiations determining the terms of sovereignty.
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Eddie Goldenberg[1] took a long sip of coffee.
There was a long silence.
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An awkward quiet filled the meeting room, as the eighteen Liberal MPs sat, waiting for Don Boudria to arrive. Between them were some of the most powerful men and women on the hill: Marcel Massé, Paul Martin, André Ouellet, Patrick Gagnon, Denis Paradis, Mark Assad, Clifford Lincoln, Michel Dupuy, Sheila Finestone, Warren Allmand, Martin Cauchon, Bernard Patry, Robert Bertrand, Eleni Bakopanos, Lucienne Robillard, Shirley Maheu, Alfonso Gagliano, Nick Discepola, and Raymond Lavigne.
Don Boudria[2] entered the room, holding his day planner.
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[1] Eddie Goldenberg served as one of Jean Chretien's most trusted advisors throughout his career.
[2] Don Boudria was Chief Government Whip in the House during 1995.
EXODUS IN QUEBEC
-The Globe and Mail, November 3rd, 1995
-The Globe and Mail, November 3rd, 1995
BY PHIL RYAN | Traffic on border highways has become an endless gridlock, for the thousands of Anglophones now fleeing Québec following the referendum. Fearing how they believe an independent Québec may treat English-speakers, they have flooded into Ontario and New Brunswick border towns. Matthew Coon Come, Grand Chief of the Quebecois Grand Council of the Crees, released a statement that his people would not be vacating their homes in the north of Québec, and would be standing firm in their ancestral lands. The Grand Council of the Crees has long opposed separation, and have insisted that they sit in on any negotiations determining the terms of sovereignty.
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Eddie Goldenberg[1] took a long sip of coffee.
"This isn't going to work, and you know it, Prime Minister," he said.
"A constitutional amendment is now our only hope of holding the country together," Chretien replied.
"Well, then maybe we don't have any hope," said Goldenberg. He sat down in his chair, in front of the PM's desk.
"A Supreme Court ruling is going to take time," he continued, "but there just is no way that we could rush a constitutional amendment through faster. And that's even if all of the Premiers sign off on the first thing we propose."
"You're certain we couldn't rush it through the provincial legislatures? Get them all to make it the very next vote?" asked Chretien insistently.
Goldenberg grabbed his hair, exasperated. "Québec would never pass anything we propose anyway!"
"If they won't vote, then we just do it without them," replied the Prime Minister.
"It doesn't work that way," Goldenberg said, standing up and walking over to a window. "To amend the constitution, you need the support of all the provincial legislatures. If we discount Québec, it's a tacit recognition that Québec is no longer a province of Canada."
"A constitutional amendment is now our only hope of holding the country together," Chretien replied.
"Well, then maybe we don't have any hope," said Goldenberg. He sat down in his chair, in front of the PM's desk.
"A Supreme Court ruling is going to take time," he continued, "but there just is no way that we could rush a constitutional amendment through faster. And that's even if all of the Premiers sign off on the first thing we propose."
"You're certain we couldn't rush it through the provincial legislatures? Get them all to make it the very next vote?" asked Chretien insistently.
Goldenberg grabbed his hair, exasperated. "Québec would never pass anything we propose anyway!"
"If they won't vote, then we just do it without them," replied the Prime Minister.
"It doesn't work that way," Goldenberg said, standing up and walking over to a window. "To amend the constitution, you need the support of all the provincial legislatures. If we discount Québec, it's a tacit recognition that Québec is no longer a province of Canada."
There was a long silence.
"Damn," said the Prime Minister.
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An awkward quiet filled the meeting room, as the eighteen Liberal MPs sat, waiting for Don Boudria to arrive. Between them were some of the most powerful men and women on the hill: Marcel Massé, Paul Martin, André Ouellet, Patrick Gagnon, Denis Paradis, Mark Assad, Clifford Lincoln, Michel Dupuy, Sheila Finestone, Warren Allmand, Martin Cauchon, Bernard Patry, Robert Bertrand, Eleni Bakopanos, Lucienne Robillard, Shirley Maheu, Alfonso Gagliano, Nick Discepola, and Raymond Lavigne.
Don Boudria[2] entered the room, holding his day planner.
"I assume you all know why you're here," he said.
"You're sending us home?" asked Massé.
"No," Boudria replied, "None of you are going home, unless you were already planning to. Even though your ridings are all in Québec, you are to continue your duties as if nothing happened. If circumstances change, then I will inform you. Until such a time, you will continue to caucus with the rest of the party, you will vote on bills, minister your portfolios, and proceed with business as usual. Understood?"
"You're sending us home?" asked Massé.
"No," Boudria replied, "None of you are going home, unless you were already planning to. Even though your ridings are all in Québec, you are to continue your duties as if nothing happened. If circumstances change, then I will inform you. Until such a time, you will continue to caucus with the rest of the party, you will vote on bills, minister your portfolios, and proceed with business as usual. Understood?"
---------------------------
[1] Eddie Goldenberg served as one of Jean Chretien's most trusted advisors throughout his career.
[2] Don Boudria was Chief Government Whip in the House during 1995.
Cuāuhtemōc
Banned
I don't think many Anglophones would just pack their bags and just leave if Quebec had won its independence. Quebec would probably be partitioned between pro-independence and anti-independence areas, no?
That's to be decided, but the separatists would be against any partitioning whatsoever.
Well then, I guess nobody can accuse you of hiding where your loyalties lie
Anyhow, interested in seeing where this'll go, keep it up!
Well then, I guess nobody can accuse you of hiding where your loyalties lie
Anyhow, interested in seeing where this'll go, keep it up!
There's nothing inherently political in saying that the Feds were arrogant and the separatists presumptuous, but personally, yes, I oppose separatism. That having been said, my goal with this TL is to be extremely even-handed, and simply chart the most likely historical trajectory.
I remember comments in the news media about how the equipment of the armed forces could have been split between Canada and an independent Quebec. I also recall some pro independence commentators not being very enthused about maintaining a significant military going forwards. In particular one comment that stands out In my memory concerned the commentators not wanting their share of the navy. I doubt there would have been much argument over how to divy up the armed forces especially as the land and air elements of the armed forces were downsizing in the early to mid 90's in any event.
Other than the CF18's, four destroyers and the new frigates there wasn't much worth arguing over anyways
plus there's no RCN base in quebec. The closest thing is a coast guard base in Quebec City.
Will you include any updates on the Québecois pop culture (Céline Dion, for example) and the future of Société Radio-Canada (Francophone CBC, the public broadcaster).
I really see this causes a lot of problems for the US, UK, France, and, of course, Canada.
