Ottomans win the peace in 1897?

[Vinization]

The Greco-Turkish War of 1897 is probably the best example of "winning the war but losing the peace" that I've read about in a while now. Though the Ottomans easily brushed the Greeks aside and occupied a good part of Thessaly in a month, the Great Powers forced them to settle for minor border adjustments as well as turning Crete into an autonomous state.

What would it take for the Ottomans' territorial integrity to be preserved this time? Would preventing the Hamidian Massacres in Armenia be enough? Assuming things go REALLY good for them, could they perhaps retake Thessaly?

Could such a victory put Abdul-Hamid II's paranoia under control and convince him to restore the Constitution?

What was Great Britain's position in the war? The anti-Turkish William Ewart Gladstone was out of office by this time.

Calling in @Osman Aga since he's an expert on the OE.

 

[Osman Aga]

Remind me tomorrow!

 

[AltoRegnant]

Considering wikipedia only mentions italian volunteers, but russia was very interested in the black sea and eastern med at this point, I think we can assume they're the big problems here.

Austria I could see backing the ottomans here, given competiton with Mother Russia. Britain might also have wanted to back them for financial reasons, but that's not gonna get them a favorable deal. The problem is that if austria got involved, I'm sure italy or russia would get more directly involved and just piss on Vienna. (Well maybe not the italians).

Any congress of Russia, Ottos, AH and Italy would probably break down (I don't think greece would be invited tbh). And that just leads to otl or a major war down south. But the 3 powers out west, Britain Germany and france, all have their own interests in keeping the ottomans around and reasonably powerful- fear of Russia, or financial interests. If this Cretian Congress can get ome of them fo back it, you might see something for Turkey

 

[Osman Aga]

The Greco-Turkish War of 1897 is probably the best example of "winning the war but losing the peace" that I've read about in a while now. Though the Ottomans easily brushed the Greeks aside and occupied a good part of Thessaly in a month, the Great Powers forced them to settle for minor border adjustments as well as turning Crete into an autonomous state.

What would it take for the Ottomans' territorial integrity to be preserved this time? Would preventing the Hamidian Massacres in Armenia be enough? Assuming things go REALLY good for them, could they perhaps retake Thessaly?

Could such a victory put Abdul-Hamid II's paranoia under control and convince him to restore the Constitution?

What was Great Britain's position in the war? The anti-Turkish William Ewart Gladstone was out of office by this time.

Calling in @Osman Aga since he's an expert on the OE.

1. It would take a distraction in China as soon as the war started. If the Boxer rebellion starts earlier, this will divert attention to China and thus leave less room for the Great Powers to intervene in Greece. It has to start on the same day of the Greco-Turkish War or anything afterwards as long as the war has not ended.
The Ottomans knew that retaking Thessaly by then creates problems for the future. Some part might be taken but not the whole pie. With the Great Powers trying to move into China and crush the Anti Western Rebellion, the Ottomans can advance further on Athens without thwarting them. This has huge consequences for Greece and for the region later on.

2. No. Not that Abdulhamid II was really as paranoid as they think. But I doubt he will restore the constitution of 1876 even if he was in his right mind. The situation of the Empire is not really solved with these borders. The Bulgarian border was horrendous to defend considering Bulgaria was very militarized. In order to avoid future conflicts he may keep absolute power although I expect the revolution of 1908 to be stalled. The constitution will be reinstated but only by 1908 or later. His rule has more support after this win.

I think Salisbury was active in this period. He was not so friendly either. He will try to divert attention there as well but it will be less likely as London's attention is in China rather than Athens.

Results:
1. Crete stays Ottomans in exchange for the Ottomans retreating out of occupied Greece.
2. Thessaly is demilitarized by Greece and occupied by the Ottomans until war reparations are paid
3. Greek Army and Navy reduced with maybe 50-67%
4. War reparations paid

Greece is paralyzed to have any meaningful assistance for the Other Balkan Nations. The remaining Greek Army and officers depose the King and declare the Third Hellene Republic. This Greece will be far more hostile to the Ottoman Empire but has little ability to do anything. By 1915 this Greece will be a reason for crisis with the Ottomans assuming the Balkan Wars don't break out. Could as well be a reason for WW1.

 

[Vinization]

1. It would take a distraction in China as soon as the war started. If the Boxer rebellion starts earlier, this will divert attention to China and thus leave less room for the Great Powers to intervene in Greece. It has to start on the same day of the Greco-Turkish War or anything afterwards as long as the war has not ended.
The Ottomans knew that retaking Thessaly by then creates problems for the future. Some part might be taken but not the whole pie. With the Great Powers trying to move into China and crush the Anti Western Rebellion, the Ottomans can advance further on Athens without thwarting them. This has huge consequences for Greece and for the region later on.

2. No. Not that Abdulhamid II was really as paranoid as they think. But I doubt he will restore the constitution of 1876 even if he was in his right mind. The situation of the Empire is not really solved with these borders. The Bulgarian border was horrendous to defend considering Bulgaria was very militarized. In order to avoid future conflicts he may keep absolute power although I expect the revolution of 1908 to be stalled. The constitution will be reinstated but only by 1908 or later. His rule has more support after this win.

I think Salisbury was active in this period. He was not so friendly either. He will try to divert attention there as well but it will be less likely as London's attention is in China rather than Athens.

Results:
1. Crete stays Ottomans in exchange for the Ottomans retreating out of occupied Greece.
2. Thessaly is demilitarized by Greece and occupied by the Ottomans until war reparations are paid
3. Greek Army and Navy reduced with maybe 50-67%
4. War reparations paid

Greece is paralyzed to have any meaningful assistance for the Other Balkan Nations. The remaining Greek Army and officers depose the King and declare the Third Hellene Republic. This Greece will be far more hostile to the Ottoman Empire but has little ability to do anything. By 1915 this Greece will be a reason for crisis with the Ottomans assuming the Balkan Wars don't break out. Could as well be a reason for WW1.

Aw, I was hoping to prevent the Boxer Rebellion from happening with a Qing victory in the war against Japan. Would preventing or containing the Cretan uprising be enough for the Ottomans to retain the island? The war with Greece could erupt due to some random border incident.

 

[Osman Aga]

Aw, I was hoping to prevent the Boxer Rebellion from happening with a Qing victory in the war against Japan. Would preventing or containing the Cretan uprising be enough for the Ottomans to retain the island? The war with Greece could erupt due to some random border incident.

Crete uprising not happening is one thing but the Greeks sailing there is what made situation worse. Let the Greek expedition fail to arrive in Crete and there is no war in 1897.

The closest the Ottomans and Greeks were to declare war was in 1881 when the Ottomans had not retreated from Thessaly yet as agreed in Berlin. Maybe the Ottomans refuse to evacuate Thessaly, Greece does not declare war in 1881 but does so in the 1890s. The area had a large Greek presence, larger than Macedonia. So a Greek declaration of war due to a Greek insurgency there is an option.