Going back to the OP, it could be ironic that Russia defeated by the Ottomans leads to Russia weakening China which leads to Japan winning earlier, and perhaps more strongly, against China. Which of course could lead to an earlier complete implosion of the Qing.
The Russo-Japanese War is often seen as one step on the chain of causality towards World War One (I think I mixed my metaphors!). But would it even happen, or might it happen later and more powerfully?
Consider that if Japan is able to defeat China earlier, then Russia, despite controlling more ex-Chinese land, is actually navally weaker and is also diplomatically weaker since beating up China doesn't really offset the loss in prestige from losing to the Ottomans.
If Japan ends up able to keep Liaoyang then Russian grievances will be stoked. But with the only available port being Vladivostock (well, only decent port since they also have Petropavlosk but it has the same problem, only worse) then any Russian naval build up in the wake of this is going to be problematic.
If there is a general Chinese collapse, and especially if Russia has puppetised or Khiva-ised Mongolia, then a Russian move on Manchuria as a whole might be seen in the mid to late 1890s. This would be a move whilst Japan holds Port Arthur. Korea would have been independentised after Japan defeated China and would be the battleground it was OTL, just with events ramped up a bit if things start off earlier.
Of course, a Japanese naval build up paid for by a Chinese indemnity, would if this happens earlier, result in a fleet of Majestics, or close equivalents. Good ships but likely to be the equal of, or maybe inferior of, what Russia gets round to building and sending - because the Japanese spent their money earlier.
So, would an earlier stronger Japan in this scenario lead to a Russian victory in a late 1890s Russo-Japanese War?
Best Regards
Grey Wolf
The Russo-Japanese War is often seen as one step on the chain of causality towards World War One (I think I mixed my metaphors!). But would it even happen, or might it happen later and more powerfully?
Consider that if Japan is able to defeat China earlier, then Russia, despite controlling more ex-Chinese land, is actually navally weaker and is also diplomatically weaker since beating up China doesn't really offset the loss in prestige from losing to the Ottomans.
If Japan ends up able to keep Liaoyang then Russian grievances will be stoked. But with the only available port being Vladivostock (well, only decent port since they also have Petropavlosk but it has the same problem, only worse) then any Russian naval build up in the wake of this is going to be problematic.
If there is a general Chinese collapse, and especially if Russia has puppetised or Khiva-ised Mongolia, then a Russian move on Manchuria as a whole might be seen in the mid to late 1890s. This would be a move whilst Japan holds Port Arthur. Korea would have been independentised after Japan defeated China and would be the battleground it was OTL, just with events ramped up a bit if things start off earlier.
Of course, a Japanese naval build up paid for by a Chinese indemnity, would if this happens earlier, result in a fleet of Majestics, or close equivalents. Good ships but likely to be the equal of, or maybe inferior of, what Russia gets round to building and sending - because the Japanese spent their money earlier.
So, would an earlier stronger Japan in this scenario lead to a Russian victory in a late 1890s Russo-Japanese War?
Best Regards
Grey Wolf