Ottomans take Vienna in 1529. What next?

If the Ottomans had taken Vienna in 1529, they would, at the very least, have gotten what they had gone to war for: a full conquest of Hungary with the Hapsburgs booted out.

What now?
  • Do the Ottomans try to keep Vienna, or do they withdraw, content at having utterly humiliated the Holy Roman Emperor and broken his power in Hungary?
  • Do the Ottomans keep John Zápolya as their vassal, or do they annex Hungary nevertheless?
  • How does the rest of Germany react?
 
If the Ottomans had taken Vienna in 1529, they would, at the very least, have gotten what they had gone to war for: a full conquest of Hungary with the Hapsburgs booted out.

What now?
  • Do the Ottomans try to keep Vienna, or do they withdraw, content at having utterly humiliated the Holy Roman Emperor and broken his power in Hungary?
  • Do the Ottomans keep John Zápolya as their vassal, or do they annex Hungary nevertheless?
  • How does the rest of Germany react?

1. Vienna is, relatively speaking, a major prize both in terms of prestige and in its role as one of the core commercial centers for the Danubian trade (and one of the main routes into the southern German markets). While one could very easily make the argument that, logistically speaking, holding the city with an army based in Constantinople would be next to impossible, I can't see them just withdrawing. I imagine Lower Austria, at the very least, would either be given to some major Magyar nobility to help buy the Hungarians into their new position as an Ottoman vassal, or at the very least be forced into a more enforced tributary situation to the Sultan. In the later case, the tribute alongside surrendering all claims to the Crown of St. Stephen, alongside other political concessions (A crack-down on March warfare and a free hand to deal with the Venetians, for instance) would be part of returning the city to Austrian control. Thanks to its geography, however, I can't see it completely losing its political-economic significance

2. Vassaldom for Hungary was a lot less of a political headache than annexing it directly. Islamization (Or at least Protestantization) would probably have been a tad stronger, and the relationship with the center tighter given the Magyars have no other major power broker to turn to to help enforce their autonomy, but its too far away from Constantinople to be worth the headache.

3. Protestantism probably gets an early boost, as the "decadence" of Catholicism is cast as the reason God is abandoning the continent to the Heathen. The Hapsburg prestige (in Austria at least) also takes a pretty big knock... likely losing their monopoly on the position of HRE and, therefore, leaving the nation more decenteralized and the minor principalities more able to persue their own interests without having to worry about Imperial intervention or contributing to the common Imperial defense.
 
Its far more intelligent for Ottomans expand into Italy. They can swallow vassal Hungary another day.

That would require projecting power into the Central and Western Med. to the extent that they can subdue both the Imperial Spanish and Venetians on their home waters. Maybe they can get to Malta and Sicily if they can tighten their hold on North Africa quickly enough, but its not intelligent to go after anything on the mainland. Certainly, taking Vienna woulden't be the reason for that change: the situation in the Western Med. and HRE are almost entirely separated in the short-medium term.
 
I'm under the impression that the turks just wanted to nullify the treaty they conceded with the Habsburgs after the Battle of Mohacs and take all of Hungary for themselves. This way, an assault on Vienna would just be a sack, with a retreat before a larger german army appears; supply lines were, at that time, too thinly stretched for an annexation of Vienna, and the turks were still digesting their annexation of Hungary.
I expect that such a defeat will weaken Charles V's position significantly, possibly affecting his coronation as Holy Roman Emperor. However, he had defeated Francis I of France four years before at Pavia, so his position isn't fully discredited.
 
Wouldn't such event cause a big counterreaction from Charles, the Pope and atleast from the Southern German princes?

I believe Charles would lead a massive offensive against the Turks in such a sceniario and this time the German princes would maybe let him to lead Imperial arms outside of the Empire. If not, the tercios are still there among others.

If everything goes right, most of the Hungarian nobles will side with him and with Ferdinand almost immediately, or atleast after Szapolyai suffered a defeat or abandoned Buda.

The wisest would be launching this campaign in late October, when the Ottoman war-season already ended. The Ottomans can launch an offensive with theie whole army only in every 3 years, so until then, there would be plenty of time ousting Szapolyai completely and retaking the lost Southern forts from the Ottomans.

If Nándorfehérvár, Jajca and Szabács could be retaken, then all Ottoman efforts could be nullified since 1520.

However Francis needs to be neutralised for this time period.
 
1. Vienna is, relatively speaking, a major prize both in terms of prestige and in its role as one of the core commercial centers for the Danubian trade (and one of the main routes into the southern German markets). While one could very easily make the argument that, logistically speaking, holding the city with an army based in Constantinople would be next to impossible, I can't see them just withdrawing. I imagine Lower Austria, at the very least, would either be given to some major Magyar nobility to help buy the Hungarians into their new position as an Ottoman vassal, or at the very least be forced into a more enforced tributary situation to the Sultan. In the later case, the tribute alongside surrendering all claims to the Crown of St. Stephen, alongside other political concessions (A crack-down on March warfare and a free hand to deal with the Venetians, for instance) would be part of returning the city to Austrian control. Thanks to its geography, however, I can't see it completely losing its political-economic significance

2. Vassaldom for Hungary was a lot less of a political headache than annexing it directly. Islamization (Or at least Protestantization) would probably have been a tad stronger, and the relationship with the center tighter given the Magyars have no other major power broker to turn to to help enforce their autonomy, but its too far away from Constantinople to be worth the headache.

3. Protestantism probably gets an early boost, as the "decadence" of Catholicism is cast as the reason God is abandoning the continent to the Heathen. The Hapsburg prestige (in Austria at least) also takes a pretty big knock... likely losing their monopoly on the position of HRE and, therefore, leaving the nation more decenteralized and the minor principalities more able to persue their own interests without having to worry about Imperial intervention or contributing to the common Imperial defense.
Why is holding the city from Constantinople impossible?
 
Why is holding the city from Constantinople impossible?

Distance: The Ottoman Sultans (at least the early ones) always lead major campaigns in person and wanted to keep the army as close to them/under their eye as possible, to prevent any military factionalism that was so often the bane of early nobility (Plus, a permanent standing army was ALOT easier to feed there due to the massive movement of goods and easy access to water: while the Janissaries and other professional troops were better than old feudal levees that most of Europe were still using, they put a bigger burden on the centeral state appraise). So, if they wanted to bring a major military force somewhere they had to get it out and back into Ottoman territory in a single campaigning season, and with the geography and infrastructure of the Balkans what it was it was tricky to get much beyond Hungary. That's why Belgrade was considered so important; not only is it as close to a natural depot as you could get in the Ottoman hiterlands, but it provided a nice forward staging ground into the less-tightly held territories from the Thracian "core"
 

Deleted member 67076

Wouldn't such event cause a big counterreaction from Charles, the Pope and atleast from the Southern German princes?
Yes, but on the other hand it would greatly strengthen Ottoman correspondence with the Protestant princes of the north. And as you said, its a benefit to Francis I, who at this moment is fighting the Spaniards in Italy.

Wouldn't it be tricky for the Imperial forces to launch another major campaign while fighting France and Venice in Italy (which here would be even closer to Ottoman territory)?
 
Distance: The Ottoman Sultans (at least the early ones) always lead major campaigns in person and wanted to keep the army as close to them/under their eye as possible, to prevent any military factionalism that was so often the bane of early nobility (Plus, a permanent standing army was ALOT easier to feed there due to the massive movement of goods and easy access to water: while the Janissaries and other professional troops were better than old feudal levees that most of Europe were still using, they put a bigger burden on the centeral state appraise). So, if they wanted to bring a major military force somewhere they had to get it out and back into Ottoman territory in a single campaigning season, and with the geography and infrastructure of the Balkans what it was it was tricky to get much beyond Hungary. That's why Belgrade was considered so important; not only is it as close to a natural depot as you could get in the Ottoman hiterlands, but it provided a nice forward staging ground into the less-tightly held territories from the Thracian "core"
They can feed the army locally.They should be able to supply the army through the Danube.They can just leave parts of the army to garrison the newly conquered territories.
 
They can feed the army locally.They should be able to supply the army through the Danube.They can just leave parts of the army to garrison the newly conquered territories.

That garrison would have to be pretty big, considering there's no way an army from Constantinople could be informed and arrive in time to relieve the city if it should be attacked (Which it could be, provided the HRE got its house in order or there was a broader Spanish involvement spiraling out of the rivalry in the central Med. No Crusade though; we're a bit too far along for that). Not only does that require sucking in a lot of food from the surrounding countryside in a not particularly agriculturally productive region; especially if you want to maintain Vienna as a craftsmen and trading hub of some degree (The Danube is not as effective, considering you'd have to drag the supplies up rather than downriver), and you effectively create a nucleus of political-military power outside the Sultan's close proximity across some pretty sparce territory. Just getting the money up there to pay the garrison would be a pain and a drain on the treasury... a vassal/tributary payment would be far more profitable, weaken the potential of any power center on vulnerable western border of the Hungarian plains, and create less of a cause for the Christians to strike back. Especially if, by weakening the Hapsburgs, you toss the apple of discord among the other German states as the Hapsburgs drop out of hegemon-strength status and wealth.

That might even give the Hussites a boost if the Czechs in Bohemia (A land now under a more direct Hapsburg thumb, given its the core of their remaining territory) chaff more intensely.

There's a difference between what the Ottomans CAN do and what it makes the most sense given their political culture, the European situation, and general strategic principals
 
Why is holding the city from Constantinople impossible?

Because Christian troops would be in a position to attack the smallish garrison that the Ottomans leave in the city (no food stores) well before a relieving army can march up from Belgrade. An Ottoman army cannot be in Vienna before mid to late July (and may even be later than that, depending on the weather), while a Christian army can use the Danube as a logistic route.
Incidentally, Luther was not gloating at all because a Catholic city had been taken by Ottomans, and wrote a few hymns himself to urge Protestants to join a crusade.
 

Deleted member 97083

I would bet the Ottomans turn Vienna into another Transylvania-like client state, rather than annexing it. Meanwhile, they annex their client states in Hungary.
 
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