Ottomans and the Black Curse

The resource curse refers the fact that countries despite having abundant natural resources, usually don't flourish economically, or flourish in any way whatsoever. Contra-intuitively, countries with abundant natural resources tend to have a worse economical development than countries with few.

They tend to enrich, massively so, a very small part of the country's population. Oil and and democratisation also tends to be as hard to mix as oil and water. Not enough that few oil-exporting countries are very democratic, but democratisation processes are often halted after a country has discovered oil. The discovery of oil also tends splash a big fat X on a country, and make foreign powers more prone to try to come in and grab a share of the spoils. The only two countries who've handled oil wealth well is Norway and Canada.

Things to consider for a surviving Ottoman empire, especially considering members of this board often tend to see the Ottoman empire having a very large source of oil as an inherently good thing for the country's development. Much depends on how much of the Balkans are still intact, and how left-wing and democratic the empire is.
 
Germany, the United States...

What countries with little did better economically than either of those?
 
I think one reason why Middle-Eastern oil rich countries have not done so well OTL is partially because a lot of them are relatively unsophisticated monarchies, who ruled very poor states before oil was found. It may be a poor analogy, but consider when poor people win the lottery. A lot of the time, rather then spending and investing the money wisely, they waste it. Its a similar case with the Khaleeji Monarchies. In short, its not so much the oil that hampers social development in the countries, but the conditions in the countries before oil was found.

The Ottomans had ruled a sophisticated state for centuries which had been through a number of difficult times, so would be unlikely to just spend the money like a teenager in a shopping mall. Another plus the oil would bring is solving one of the Ottoman Empires most persistant problems in the 19th century, which was a lack of money. Since the Ottomans ruled a much larger area, the oil wealth is more likely to be spent on more then just the Gulf.
 
The so-called "resource curse" has more to do with a developing country that has one main export (let's say Iraq and pottery) replacing that main export with oil. The economy was already unbalanced.

Germany, the US, Norway and Canada already had diversified economies when they found oil. So the Ottomans would be a-ok.
 
The resource curse refers the fact that countries despite having abundant natural resources, usually don't flourish economically, or flourish in any way whatsoever. Contra-intuitively, countries with abundant natural resources tend to have a worse economical development than countries with few.

They tend to enrich, massively so, a very small part of the country's population. Oil and and democratisation also tends to be as hard to mix as oil and water. Not enough that few oil-exporting countries are very democratic, but democratisation processes are often halted after a country has discovered oil. The discovery of oil also tends splash a big fat X on a country, and make foreign powers more prone to try to come in and grab a share of the spoils. The only two countries who've handled oil wealth well is Norway and Canada.

Things to consider for a surviving Ottoman empire, especially considering members of this board often tend to see the Ottoman empire having a very large source of oil as an inherently good thing for the country's development. Much depends on how much of the Balkans are still intact, and how left-wing and democratic the empire is.

I can see understand where are you coming from.

It certainly depends on the strength and diplomatic competency of the empire. I guess that, the later the PoD, the lesser possibility that oil will become a good thing for the Ottomans. Basically, you will need to lessen the frequency of the empire getting beaten around. With Ottoman Empire that prevailed over Russia in 1878, I think oil will become an imminent advantage. Things will become less certain with later PoD though, especially with an empire that survived WW1, but still, got ravaged by the war. That won't spell doom for the Ottomans, but it's still a setback and they will have to depend on more luck.
 
The so-called "resource curse" has more to do with a developing country that has one main export (let's say Iraq and pottery) replacing that main export with oil. The economy was already unbalanced.

Germany, the US, Norway and Canada already had diversified economies when they found oil. So the Ottomans would be a-ok.

I think one reason why Middle-Eastern oil rich countries have not done so well OTL is partially because a lot of them are relatively unsophisticated monarchies, who ruled very poor states before oil was found. It may be a poor analogy, but consider when poor people win the lottery. A lot of the time, rather then spending and investing the money wisely, they waste it. Its a similar case with the Khaleeji Monarchies. In short, its not so much the oil that hampers social development in the countries, but the conditions in the countries before oil was found.

The Ottomans had ruled a sophisticated state for centuries which had been through a number of difficult times, so would be unlikely to just spend the money like a teenager in a shopping mall. Another plus the oil would bring is solving one of the Ottoman Empires most persistant problems in the 19th century, which was a lack of money. Since the Ottomans ruled a much larger area, the oil wealth is more likely to be spent on more then just the Gulf.

These are clearer explanations then what I can pull off at the time
 
The so-called "resource curse" has more to do with a developing country that has one main export (let's say Iraq and pottery) replacing that main export with oil. The economy was already unbalanced.

Germany, the US, Norway and Canada already had diversified economies when they found oil. So the Ottomans would be a-ok.

Precisely, though the subjects who don't want Ottoman rule are probably going to be eager to get outside assistance against them, Mesopotamians and Arabs in particular.

Discovering oil did kind of mess up the Netherlands' industrial sector but for the most part, the places that are going to be commodity-fueled economies probably don't have many prospects to start with, see Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and Guinea-Bassau (Bauxite).
 
Precisely, though the subjects who don't want Ottoman rule are probably going to be eager to get outside assistance against them, Mesopotamians and Arabs in particular.

Since this scenario won't see the osmosis of modern Arab nationalism from christian cradle into the wider, mainstream muslim majority of Arab people due to lack of European colonial mandate and the still-existence of the Caliphate, we can safely assume this won't be an imminent possibility..
 

Cook

Banned
Germany, the US, Norway and Canada already had diversified economies when they found oil. So the Ottomans would be a-ok.
The Ottoman Economy was not diversified and was almost entirely agrarian; the Industrial Revolution passed them by and left them heavily dependent on imported manufactured goods and as a consequence heavily in debt. Given that Ottoman policy towards the provinces was to extract as much wealth from them as possible while concentrating development in Constantinople and the immediate regions around, the opposite seems more likely.
 
The Ottoman Economy was not diversified and was almost entirely agrarian; the Industrial Revolution passed them by and left them heavily dependent on imported manufactured goods and as a consequence heavily in debt. Given that Ottoman policy towards the provinces was to extract as much wealth from them as possible while concentrating development in Constantinople and the immediate regions around, the opposite seems more likely.
The Ottoman policy was not to extract wealth from the provinces and send it to Constantinople. It was to spend it on things such as the army, navy, and the occasional infrastructural project such as the Medina Railroad. Do remember that the Ottomans suffered from a shortage of money in the 19th century.

As for Ottoman development, it should be rememebered that Industrial development in the empire was hampered by A-The capitulations artificially making foreign manufactures more competetive then they would have been in a normal situation, and B- A general lack of industrial resources and rivers. Obviously, B cannot be solved, but A would most likely go after 1914, which would remove a major barrier to the industrial development of the Empire. It will never be as industrialised as Britain or Germany, but with luck, there can be a sort of 1914-Russian level of Industrialisation (per capita).

Oil would not become a major player in the economy until way into the 20's/30's which could give them a few years of development in a prosperous international environment, which would diversify them quite a bit.

I would additionally argue that diversification is not necessarily the only problem that Oil rich monarchies in the Middle East have. To re-enforce the point I made before, the Gulf Arab states were in no way prepared to be modern administrations. The Ottomans meanwhile, have a governing tradition over 500 years old.
 
The Ottoman policy was not to extract wealth from the provinces and send it to Constantinople. It was to spend it on things such as the army, navy, and the occasional infrastructural project such as the Medina Railroad. Do remember that the Ottomans suffered from a shortage of money in the 19th century.

As for Ottoman development, it should be rememebered that Industrial development in the empire was hampered by A-The capitulations artificially making foreign manufactures more competetive then they would have been in a normal situation, and B- A general lack of industrial resources and rivers. Obviously, B cannot be solved, but A would most likely go after 1914, which would remove a major barrier to the industrial development of the Empire. It will never be as industrialised as Britain or Germany, but with luck, there can be a sort of 1914-Russian level of Industrialisation (per capita).

Oil would not become a major player in the economy until way into the 20's/30's which could give them a few years of development in a prosperous international environment, which would diversify them quite a bit.

I would additionally argue that diversification is not necessarily the only problem that Oil rich monarchies in the Middle East have. To re-enforce the point I made before, the Gulf Arab states were in no way prepared to be modern administrations. The Ottomans meanwhile, have a governing tradition over 500 years old.

Let's not forget the slave curse. The Ottoman Empire was a slave society. Slave societies always have problems in operating diverse and productive economies. Neither slavers, slave owners or slaves are motivated to apply their energies. Once slavery is abolished, the economies frequently undergo a slow collapse.
 
Let's not forget the slave curse. The Ottoman Empire was a slave society. Slave societies always have problems in operating diverse and productive economies. Neither slavers, slave owners or slaves are motivated to apply their energies. Once slavery is abolished, the economies frequently undergo a slow collapse.
Im not quite sure what you mean. The Ottoman empire's economy was never dependent on slaves the way that the Carribean Islands or the Southern states of America were, and at any rate, slavery was gradually phased out during the 19th century anyway. Most of the people who worked the land in the Ottoman empire were small holders who owned their own land (or at least, they thought they did in some cases).
 
The Ottoman policy was not to extract wealth from the provinces and send it to Constantinople. It was to spend it on things such as the army, navy, and the occasional infrastructural project such as the Medina Railroad. Do remember that the Ottomans suffered from a shortage of money in the 19th century.

Well, in many ways they're the same. Especially if (As in no book about the Ottomans I've read had their budget in it) those were the largest components of government expenditure.
 
Well, in many ways they're the same. Especially if (As in no book about the Ottomans I've read had their budget in it) those were the largest components of government expenditure.
Well, the Army in paticular is very important when your surrounded by enemies who wouldn't mind seeing you destroyed. So its not exactly a comparison to places like British India.
 
Top