Ottoman Victory in the Indian Ocean Conflicts: Consequences?

[FillyofDelphi]

The 16th century saw a radical shift in the commercial environment of what John Green dubbed "The Monsoon Marketplace"; with the Portugese rounding of the Cape of Good Hope and aggressive military and commercial expansion via the Fietoria system of trading posts/fortresses and clientization of the East African city-states permanently hooking Europe directly into the Indian Ocean trade. This control of long distance oceanic routes by a singe power not only critically undermined the dominance of the Muslim merchant class that had been on the accent in the previous centuries: a vital source of custom's wealth for several polities, but lead directly to the introduction of a military and political presence in the affairs of India and the East Indies. However, this effort to dominate the area was contested several times by the Ottomans and their own allies over the 6 decades following their conquest of Egypt, representing the last real threat by the Near East to checking the rising global reach of Western Europe.

So, as an exercise in alternate history, what if the Ottoman factions in the Indian Ocean had managed to beat back the Portugese (let's say its a factor of a more robust and modern shipbuilding industry being present in the Red Sea for some reason, giving the Ottomans a stronger base to form an eastern navy and leverage their Med. experiences and technology). How would this affect the affairs of India, Swahililand, the Horn, and the East Indies? What about the Portugese, without having the spice trade wealth to tap into. Would we see a doubling down on Brazilian development or efforts to gain control of productive facilities or more commercial outlets in West Africa? And what about the effects on the Turkish economy?

 

[Koprulu Mustafa Pasha]

The 16th century saw a radical shift in the commercial environment of what John Green dubbed "The Monsoon Marketplace"; with the Portugese rounding of the Cape of Good Hope and aggressive military and commercial expansion via the Fietoria system of trading posts/fortresses and clientization of the East African city-states permanently hooking Europe directly into the Indian Ocean trade. This control of long distance oceanic routes by a singe power not only critically undermined the dominance of the Muslim merchant class that had been on the accent in the previous centuries: a vital source of custom's wealth for several polities, but lead directly to the introduction of a military and political presence in the affairs of India and the East Indies. However, this effort to dominate the area was contested several times by the Ottomans and their own allies over the 6 decades following their conquest of Egypt, representing the last real threat by the Near East to checking the rising global reach of Western Europe.

So, as an exercise in alternate history, what if the Ottoman factions in the Indian Ocean had managed to beat back the Portugese (let's say its a factor of a more robust and modern shipbuilding industry being present in the Red Sea for some reason, giving the Ottomans a stronger base to form an eastern navy and leverage their Med. experiences and technology). How would this affect the affairs of India, Swahililand, the Horn, and the East Indies? What about the Portugese, without having the spice trade wealth to tap into. Would we see a doubling down on Brazilian development or efforts to gain control of productive facilities or more commercial outlets in West Africa? And what about the effects on the Turkish economy?

Depends on when they beat the Portuguese. Anytime during the reign of Suleiman I means more portuguese efforts in Brazil and West Africa. Later on, it might affect any foreign attack on Brazil or West Africa. The Portuguese will be much stronger there. And the chance of Portuguese Caribbean Islands are much more likely.

If it is after Selim II reign, it might be pretty much the same OTL minus the Dutch-Portuguese War in the 17th century. Spain will have less income to deal with the Dutch. Nothing crucial but the Dutch don't need to fight the Portuguese in India.

The Ottomans will have boost of income in the Spice Trade with no Portuguese meddling. The boost last until the Europeans start to return to the East Indies which is not that long. The war with the Safavids and Habsburgs may turn out better than OTL.

The Portuguese Towns, Forts and Factories pretty much return to the native rulers. There is a good chance the Ottomans do not fight the English or Dutch. The Portuguese conflicts started with the Portuguese harassing the Muslims. The Ottomans may pressure the smaller and weaker states to not give favourable deals but that is pretty much it. Unless the new European Merchants start to harass Muslims in the region there is 0 chance of war.

 

[Tanc49]

I would reply more later but for now, I'll just say the big difference you'd have to make is that the Ottoman did not care about territory but about allegiance, like they did ud with Aceh, there was no conquering.
Even the Portuguese gave that bit up after a while. You could say the Ottoman actually succeeded : by creating a new solid threat and threatening their naval supremacy, they added a massive financial burden on the Estado da India which just piled on all the other issues they were having (dissolution of central authority among others)

 

[FillyofDelphi]

Depends on when they beat the Portuguese. Anytime during the reign of Suleiman I means more portuguese efforts in Brazil and West Africa. Later on, it might affect any foreign attack on Brazil or West Africa. The Portuguese will be much stronger there. And the chance of Portuguese Caribbean Islands are much more likely.

If it is after Selim II reign, it might be pretty much the same OTL minus the Dutch-Portuguese War in the 17th century. Spain will have less income to deal with the Dutch. Nothing crucial but the Dutch don't need to fight the Portuguese in India.

The Ottomans will have boost of income in the Spice Trade with no Portuguese meddling. The boost last until the Europeans start to return to the East Indies which is not that long. The war with the Safavids and Habsburgs may turn out better than OTL.

The Portuguese Towns, Forts and Factories pretty much return to the native rulers. There is a good chance the Ottomans do not fight the English or Dutch. The Portuguese conflicts started with the Portuguese harassing the Muslims. The Ottomans may pressure the smaller and weaker states to not give favourable deals but that is pretty much it. Unless the new European Merchants start to harass Muslims in the region there is 0 chance of war.

If we're going with a viable POD of having a stronger local shipbuilding industry for the Ottomans to exploit, let's go with the assumption that its takes a few years to build up a suitable naval presence post-Conquest of Egypt, so we're seeing conflicts with the Portugese get seriously in the late 1520's and, say, they're checked back to the Cape of Good Hope by roughly the mid-1540's/

 

[Marc]

A great deal of the of the Portuguese success was a multi-generational R&D program to develop extraordinary ships - and commensurate navel artillery. The Ottomans would have to revamp their naval forces, and be willing to keep fighting in the Indian Ocean for some years, not an easy proposition in terms of time and culture.

 

[Pentapolim]

If we're going with a viable POD of having a stronger local shipbuilding industry for the Ottomans to exploit, let's go with the assumption that its takes a few years to build up a suitable naval presence post-Conquest of Egypt, so we're seeing conflicts with the Portugese get seriously in the late 1520's and, say, they're checked back to the Cape of Good Hope by roughly the mid-1540's/

A great deal of the of the Portuguese success was a multi-generational R&D program to develop extraordinary ships - and commensurate navel artillery. The Ottomans would have to revamp their naval forces, and be willing to keep fighting in the Indian Ocean for some years, not an easy proposition in terms of time and culture.

Like @Marc said, the prowess of the portuguese navy was achieved through decades and generations of development and naval tradition. You can't just place a shipyard facing the red sea and expect them to completely outperform and "check back" portuguese interests out of the indian ocean. That's also no taking into account that, whatever ships the ottomans build on the red sea would be money not being spent in the mediterranean, unless there was an efficient way to transport ships from one side to the other, and there wasn't. The entire shipbuilding logistics in that area were severely lacking overall, and I suspect it would take an unreasonable amount of money to change that, considering it was clearly not as vital an interest to the sublime porte than say, Hungary or Persia.

Depends on when they beat the Portuguese. Anytime during the reign of Suleiman I means more portuguese efforts in Brazil and West Africa. Later on, it might affect any foreign attack on Brazil or West Africa. The Portuguese will be much stronger there. And the chance of Portuguese Caribbean Islands are much more likely.

If it is after Selim II reign, it might be pretty much the same OTL minus the Dutch-Portuguese War in the 17th century. Spain will have less income to deal with the Dutch. Nothing crucial but the Dutch don't need to fight the Portuguese in India.

The Ottomans will have boost of income in the Spice Trade with no Portuguese meddling. The boost last until the Europeans start to return to the East Indies which is not that long. The war with the Safavids and Habsburgs may turn out better than OTL.

The Portuguese Towns, Forts and Factories pretty much return to the native rulers. There is a good chance the Ottomans do not fight the English or Dutch. The Portuguese conflicts started with the Portuguese harassing the Muslims. The Ottomans may pressure the smaller and weaker states to not give favourable deals but that is pretty much it. Unless the new European Merchants start to harass Muslims in the region there is 0 chance of war.

Do the Ottomans ITTL somehow manage to control the entire Indic Ocean, let alone dictate who can trade with whom? Portuguese trade in the indic ocean declined because of competition, debt and complete spanish negligence during the Iberian Union, not because they faced resistance.

 

[Aghstadian]

Interesting scenario and have been disscussed before.

But there are few thing i think need to be address before Ottoman can really project power in Indian Ocean long term.

1. Otl the Ottoman let the Mameluke run the place but in order to develop infrastructure necessary for long term projection in Indian ocean they probably need to go.

2. Instead of conquering Hungary probably better off to just set it up as buffer between them and the Habsburg. Better if this Hungary goes protestant to set it apart from Habsburg. So the resource and manpower spent in the war against the Habsburg can go elsewhere. (Need more disscussion how to do it).

3. Significant resources and commitment for the project. Developing a navy suitable for Indian ocean is a long and expensive project probably need as pet project of Sultan or tie it as part of greater conflict like with Safavid Persia.

4. Finally Canal. Not a must but in order for the Ottoman have the incentive to invest in Indian ocean for long term. Don't have to be as deep as otl Suez canal though more akin to pharaoh canal.

Bonus:
Other power that have interest to compete with Portugese for Indian ocean trade (like Venice for example) willing to commit resources to the canal project.

 

[FillyofDelphi]

@Pentapolim

I'Il readily admit the details of the Portuguese naval-trade acendency of the late 15th and 16th century aren't an area of expertise for me, and that I hadn't really come up with a bullet proof idea of just how the Ottomans decisively winning in the theature of conflict would come out. I was more interested in the impact of the longer existance of the first half of the 2nd millennium Islamic-dominated trade system rather than Europeans "cutting out the middleman" as it were. I suppose we could have something that butterflies away the Portugese innovations, though that would probably not be possible in a way that would hurt their dominance on the Western coast to the point they aren't really contesting the area in the first place. We could also have the Ottomans develop ships better suited for the area in their Med. region and, once they conquer Egypt and get the submission of the Hejaz transfer those experts down south as part of an effort to better establish their presence and legitimacy (Perhaps believing that, to give more legitimacy to their title of Caliphate and engrain the elites of the coastal towns into supporting Ottoman influence and maintaining their system rather than supporting rebels, it would be wise to create a formalized escort system for the Hajj ships like the protections given to OTL's formal caravans?) Then we have the question of why shipwrights would develop a tradition suitable for open oceans in the easily navigable and relatively calm Med. and Black Seas though...

Do you have any suggestions as to the mechanics of this change?

 

[Pentapolim]

@Pentapolim

I'Il readily admit the details of the Portuguese naval-trade acendency of the late 15th and 16th century aren't an area of expertise for me, and that I hadn't really come up with a bullet proof idea of just how the Ottomans decisively winning in the theature of conflict would come out. I was more interested in the impact of the longer existance of the first half of the 2nd millennium Islamic-dominated trade system rather than Europeans "cutting out the middleman" as it were. I suppose we could have something that butterflies away the Portugese innovations, though that would probably not be possible in a way that would hurt their dominance on the Western coast to the point they aren't really contesting the area in the first place. We could also have the Ottomans develop ships better suited for the area in their Med. region and, once they conquer Egypt and get the submission of the Hejaz transfer those experts down south as part of an effort to better establish their presence and legitimacy (Perhaps believing that, to give more legitimacy to their title of Caliphate and engrain the elites of the coastal towns into supporting Ottoman influence and maintaining their system rather than supporting rebels, it would be wise to create a formalized escort system for the Hajj ships like the protections given to OTL's formal caravans?) Then we have the question of why shipwrights would develop a tradition suitable for open oceans in the easily navigable and relatively calm Med. and Black Seas though...

Do you have any suggestions as to the mechanics of this change?

It is indeed a tricky question. The problem with making the ottomans interested in investing resources out of the mediterranean was that there wasn't really an incentive to do it. Even this caravan escort system that you suggested, which is very much possible, would go only as far as projecting power in the red sea, and that's not the objective here. There has to be a reason for the ottomans to actively seek to interfere and engage in indian and southeast asian affairs, and Portugal snatching some coastal towns just isn't going to cut it. Perhaps if there was a major hindu power, preferrably in India, one that would be in a position to threaten the islamic domains in the north and undermine trade to the west. Something like the mughals, but this time it's the islamic part of india that is subjugated to some extent.

Again, this is all a matter of shifting interests. In projecting power in the indic ocean to contest this ATL threat in India and, therefore, hopefully engaging more directly in the trade there, the ottomans would have to come to a conclusion that one or some of their OTL objectives was less important than this newfound project. We might not see such an imminent threat to Italy ITTL, direct involvement in Hungary or even the maghreb. These key areas are, however, much closer to home and surrounded by enemies much more capable of directly threatening Ottoman interest than some hindu empire in India.

Butterflying away portuguese innovations is a bit complicated, since there was no defining "turning point", rather a gradual process of development that can be observed over the course of the entire 15th century and onwards. Of course you could have Portugal be somehow conquered by Castille, but that requires another bunch of points of divergence that we're not interested in here. Besides, an argument could be made that not even this would not stop the naval innovations. However, if your objective is to somehow curb portuguese expansion in the indic ocean, and thus extending the trade dominance of the ottomans - granted we don't know for how long -, you could have them be more invested in the Americas than Asia. This could be done by giving Portugal the more generous piece of the pie in this ATL tordesillas, the one that contains all the wealth from central and south american natives empires, though I suspect that the portuguese would not be so readily able to engage in the conquest of such a expansive landmass, let alone mantain it. Diverging as little from OTL as possible, you could have a portuguese explorer discover the gold in the brazillian highlands, only this time almost 200 years earlier. Even though the spice trade brought unthinkable amounts of wealth to Portugal (some ships had cargo worth half of the entire english trasure at the time), the vast amount of gold might just convince them to invest more in Brasil than in India and southeast asia.