Ottoman victory at the first siege of Vienna

Teejay

Gone Fishin'
The POD is that the Ottomans break the first siege of Vienna in 1529, particularly by lot better weather occurring than in OTL.

The way I see it, The Ottomans would control Vienna for maybe a decade if that. Then the Holy Roman Empire reconquers it. However in the longer run the Ottomans would rule over what became the Hapsburg realm of Royal Hungary. One major effect of this would be that in this TL Hungary would became a majority Protestant country.
 
The POD is that the Ottomans break the first siege of Vienna in 1529, particularly by lot better weather occurring than in OTL.

The way I see it, The Ottomans would control Vienna for maybe a decade if that. Then the Holy Roman Empire reconquers it. However in the longer run the Ottomans would rule over what became the Hapsburg realm of Royal Hungary. One major effect of this would be that in this TL Hungary would became a majority Protestant country.

Ottoman victory in Vienna of 1529... Vienna was no major centre of the Austrians at the time. The court fled to Linz when Suleiman arrived. Zapolya can consolidate power in Hungary and the Habsburgs can start restoring power in Austria.

The Ottomans might be less likely to intervene in Hungary in the 40s.

With (most of) Royal Hungary in Zapolya's rule Hungary is less affected by the counterreformation.

Edit: with no Ottoman intervention, Hungarian demographics are less affected.
 
Last edited:

Teejay

Gone Fishin'
Ottoman victory in Vienna of 1529... Vienna was no major centre of the Austrians at the time. The court fled to Linz when Suleiman arrived. Zapolya can consolidate power in Hungary and the Habsburgs can start restoring power in Austria.

The Ottomans might be less likely to intervene in Hungary in the 40s.

With (most of) Royal Hungary in Zapolya's rule Hungary is less affected by the counterreformation.

Edit: with no Ottoman intervention, Hungarian demographics are less affected.

I would agree with your assessments, may I ask how likely that the Ottomans would make the whole of Hungary into a vassal state in this TL?

In Royal Hungary there was a lot of persecution by the Hapsburg's against the Protestant (predominately Calvinist) Hungarians. In the areas that weren't controlled by the Hapsburg's, the Protestants were not persecuted.

In the present day there is a sizeable minority of Hungarians who are Protestant (Calvinist and lesser extent Lutherans), without Hapsburg control of Royal Hungary. There is little doubt that there would be a Protestant majority in present day Hungary. There is little doubt that Hungary would have become as Protestant as the present day Czech Republic was before the Thirty Years War.
 
The way I see it, The Ottomans would control Vienna for maybe a decade if that. Then the Holy Roman Empire reconquers it.
Seems likely, Vienna seems awfully far away and surrounded by enemies. As for the longer term consequences, wouldn't that depend on who expanded how much? Not only would Vienna be a costly endeavor for the Ottomans directly, I think they plausible could neglect other fronts for it.

As for the confession of Hungary, what was the window of time in which the Habsburgs could persecute Protestants effectively before growing religious tolerance made this not possible anymore?
 
I would agree with your assessments, may I ask how likely that the Ottomans would make the whole of Hungary into a vassal state in this TL?

In Royal Hungary there was a lot of persecution by the Hapsburg's against the Protestant (predominately Calvinist) Hungarians. In the areas that weren't controlled by the Hapsburg's, the Protestants were not persecuted.

In the present day there is a sizeable minority of Hungarians who are Protestant (Calvinist and lesser extent Lutherans), without Hapsburg control of Royal Hungary. There is little doubt that there would be a Protestant majority in present day Hungary. There is little doubt that Hungary would have become as Protestant as the present day Czech Republic was before the Thirty Years War.

In some sort of a way Hungary was a vassal of the Ottomans. Paying tribute and so on. But unlike Wallachia and Moldova they would not sendt troops as they are needed for defence. I am pretty sure Vienna would try to get the Hungarian throne.

Maybe fortresses like Buda, Esztergom, Petrovaradin, Ege, Temes, Gyor would have a Turkish garrison just to ensure Hungarian loyalty and defence against the Habsburgs.
 

Teejay

Gone Fishin'
In some sort of a way Hungary was a vassal of the Ottomans. Paying tribute and so on. But unlike Wallachia and Moldova they would not sendt troops as they are needed for defence. I am pretty sure Vienna would try to get the Hungarian throne.

Maybe fortresses like Buda, Esztergom, Petrovaradin, Ege, Temes, Gyor would have a Turkish garrison just to ensure Hungarian loyalty and defence against the Habsburgs.

I would agree with what you have said above. However I would argue that it would be definite that Turkish garrisons would be established in those areas as defence against the Hapsburgs. Also the Hapsburgs would try and get the Hungarian throne.

I was more wondering on if all of Hungary being not under Hapsburg rule would become a predominately Protestant instead of Catholic (with a sizeable Protestant minority, currently about 14% of Hungarians) nation without the Counter-reformation in particularly affecting Hapsburg ruled Royal Hungary. There is little doubt in my mind that Protestantism in particular Calvinism could become a major part of Hungarian identity. That could mean a loyal Hungarian population, at least when it was preferring being vassals of the Ottomans and than being ruled by the staunchly Catholic Hapsburg's.

One cannot underestimate the effect of the Counter-Reformation on Europe, before it even the regions directly ruled by the Hapsburg's (Austria) were majority Lutheran. Indeed many regions which were majority Protestant or had significant Protestant minorities became overwhelming Catholic. Bohemia is an excellent example, before the counter-reformation and the thirty years war, it was Protestantism (The Hussite Church) was the dominant religion in Bohemia.
 
Last edited:
Some interesting thoughts on how the Reformation in Hungary is affected, but I do wonder how the Reformation overall is affected? In particular, with the Hapsburgs taking such a hit, how does this change the dynamic in the German HRE?
 
Most likely, Imre Thokoly is given another kingdom to play around with. Louis XIV of France will hardly believe his luck, too, and the War of The Reunions might escalate.
I wonder, could a successful Ottoman capture of Vienna lead to further conquests into Moravia, Carniola (Slovenia), and Styria? Those will seem very vulnerable to such raids, without the "anchor" of Vienna.

EDIT: d'oh. Just noticed it's the 1529 engagement. :noexpression:
 
Last edited:
Some interesting thoughts on how the Reformation in Hungary is affected, but I do wonder how the Reformation overall is affected? In particular, with the Hapsburgs taking such a hit, how does this change the dynamic in the German HRE?

The Habsburgs in Austria have less revenue without Royal Hungary so they have hard time to deal with Protestants in the HRE. Odds are more Spanish intervention in the HRE.

Hungary might be a Godsendt gift for the Hussites of Bohemia. Considering that the Habsburgs will still demand the Hungarian Throne there will be conflict. IF the 30 years war still happen after all these changes then the Hungarians might intervene on behalf of the Bohemians. Depending on if the alternate war even takes 30 years.
 
Most likely, Imre Thokoly is given another kingdom to play around with. Louis XIV of France will hardly believe his luck, too, and the War of The Reunions might escalate.
I wonder, could a successful Ottoman capture of Vienna lead to further conquests into Moravia, Carniola (Slovenia), and Styria? Those will seem very vulnerable to such raids, without the "anchor" of Vienna.

EDIT: d'oh. Just noticed it's the 1529 engagement. :noexpression:

Slovenia is a nice place to take over as well as Croatia. The taxbase and manpower is nice. It is also harder to reach from Vienna than Szeged or so.
 
The Habsburgs in Austria have less revenue without Royal Hungary so they have hard time to deal with Protestants in the HRE. Odds are more Spanish intervention in the HRE.
France would have something to say about that, I imagine. Throw in Zwingli living another 15 years or so to give German Protestants more options, and we could see Bavaria leave Catholic influence as well, effectively ending the Holy Roman Empire as a Catholic power, and likely meaning the end of Catholic Hapsburg influence (which the French would like to see all too well).
Hungary might be a God sent gift for the Hussites of Bohemia.
And we have another Protestant nation as well. If England still undergoes its thing, that just leaves Spain, France, and Poland as the major Catholic Powers in Europe, with the second one having the the church under state influence and heavily prioritizing the weakening of the first for the time being.

CONSOLIDATE: Additional thought - would this PoD have any effect on how the Great Matter plays out in England? By the time word reaches Henry VIII, Cardinal Wolsey has only just been demoted; does he now get renewed hope that the Pope will agree to his annulment request, or has that ship now sailed?
 
Last edited:
For Charles V this would be an unpleasant event but affairs of Austria had been handled by his brother. Probably the relevant question is would it make a substantial difference in the War of the League of Cognac but this seems to be unlikely: by 1529 the League was already falling apart, Clement was in captivity after the Sack of Rome, Venice sued Charles for peace, France withdrew from Lombardy and signed Treaty of Cambrai in August of 1529. So Charles would have free hands to deal with the problems in his hereditary lands.
The problem is with:
(a) the timing: the ATL fall of Vienna happens AFTER Charles already dealt with his other problems (War of the Cognac League) and has absolutely free hands to deal with the Ottomans (or to delegate the issue to his brother who was ruling in the hereditary lands). The Pope was in Charles' hands and the rest is OTL.

(b) the geography: Vienna is too far away from anything really important to Charles and Suleiman would not be able to advance too much further due to the usual problems of the Ottoman army organization and logistics. BTW, I suspect that the alleged numbers are blown out of proportion: in 1632 his 2nd attempt to attack Vienna failed because all his army was delayed for 4 weeks by siege of a tiny fortress Güns (Kőszeg) that was defended by 700 - 800 Croatians and did not have any artillery. Surely, if Suleiman had any really big force (forget about alleged 120K) he'd just live a small part of it for the siege and kept marching.
 
Top