Ottoman Territory losses without WW1

When it comes to butterflies from no WW1, the Ottoman Empire becoming a powerful petrostate is not in the top 100.

I'm confused - when did I say they'd be a petrostate?

The Ottomans are more likely to benefit from North Iraqi oil than Gulf Oil, as they'll likely lose their Arabian territory.
 
Had the Ottoman Empire not fallen apart during WW1, then the discoveries of oil in the 1930s would've brought new life into the ailing empire. But even without the war, the Ottomans had been shedding territory at a rapid pace for a long time, so in the period between 1914 and 1934 (OTL oil discovered in Iraq), what else would they lose?

I think the Ottomans have a good position to actually regain territory in this scenario.

Legally speaking, they still have Egypt, Sudan, Cypress and Kuwait and if WW1 is anything like OTL's WW1, it will kill the British Empire. Then during the death throes of the British, the local elites in the British dominated parts of the Ottoman Empire might align with Constantinople to drive the British out. If there is a Russian Revolution, the Ottomans also could regain some ground in the Caucasus. And Turkish nationalists might be able to make good on their ambitions of bringing the Turks of central asia into the Empire. There's plenty that could stop the Ottomans gaining from either Britain or Russia, but the possibility is very much there.

As for losing territory, it is possible, but unlikely. Most of the great powers in the world benefit from the Empire continuing and WW1 will radically change the balance of power between the Ottomans and other actors. Especially with the Balkan nations, which if Bulgaria and Romania enter the war, will be badly injured.

The Ottomans meanwhile, are finally starting to see real benefits from the painful work modernizing the state over the 19th Century, will have a big windfall due to WW1 (like Spain I would expect they would make wipe out their debt and end up with a rather large gold reserve from exporting food, minerals, oil and weapons to warring Europe), industry will have been given a real shot in the arm - though there'll be a post war crash, overall the war would leave them in a better economic position if neither war nor crash had happened. Without the chaos of the Empire being dismembered and the cultural vandalism of the Kemal regime, literacy would grow faster than it did in the 20s in OTL, and I would expect that like Spain, Italy and Poland, the Ottomans would experience rapid economic growth after the post-war crash had ended.

However, the Ottomans very much can lose everything depending on how well the political center handles things. There will be two bad economic downturns and as with Spain, whatever regime in running the country could be unable to cope something messy could happen. I'd not bet on a civil war as in Spain however, and more like a badly chosen war to reconquer some part of the former empire leading to bad things.

Thinking about it... An Ottoman Empire without WW1 could look an awful lot like Fascist Italy by the 1930s...

fasquardon
 

Philip

Donor
and if WW1 is anything like OTL's WW1, it will kill the British Empire.

Except it won't be like OTL's WW1. Without the Ottoman Empire in the CP, the Eastern Front completely changes. Bulgaria is unlikely to join. Austria-Hungary must face Russia head on. If the OE is to remain neutral, the Straits should be open to merchant traffic heading to Russia.

I see a fairly rapid Allied victory with the Russian, British, and French Empires coming out in reasonably good health. A-H is dismantled. German investment in the OE ends.
 
Except it won't be like OTL's WW1. Without the Ottoman Empire in the CP, the Eastern Front completely changes. Bulgaria is unlikely to join. Austria-Hungary must face Russia head on. If the OE is to remain neutral, the Straits should be open to merchant traffic heading to Russia.

I see a fairly rapid Allied victory with the Russian, British, and French Empires coming out in reasonably good health. A-H is dismantled. German investment in the OE ends.

I can't see the war ending before 1916 even with Russia being in better health. And that's still going to leave Russia, France and Britain deeply injured.

And I think the war extending into 1917 is not out of the question, in which case, we're in the sort of territory where things will "be like OTL's WW1" in terms of economic impacts. (Though Russia has a good shot at avoiding the second, Bolshevik stage of the Revolution.)

Also, if Bulgaria stays out for a bit longer, Romania may join the war earlier, which could in turn lead to Bulgaria joining later (and both of them could end up as either Entente of Central Powers allies).

I agree, there is a very real chance that the British, French and Russians can come through this in good enough shape that the Ottomans don't gain significantly in relative power. And there is a very real chance that Bulgaria might stay out entirely. But I don't think it's nearly as likely as you seem to think here.

fasquardon
 

kernals12

Banned
I think the Ottomans have a good position to actually regain territory in this scenario.

Legally speaking, they still have Egypt, Sudan, Cypress and Kuwait and if WW1 is anything like OTL's WW1, it will kill the British Empire. Then during the death throes of the British, the local elites in the British dominated parts of the Ottoman Empire might align with Constantinople to drive the British out. If there is a Russian Revolution, the Ottomans also could regain some ground in the Caucasus. And Turkish nationalists might be able to make good on their ambitions of bringing the Turks of central asia into the Empire. There's plenty that could stop the Ottomans gaining from either Britain or Russia, but the possibility is very much there.

As for losing territory, it is possible, but unlikely. Most of the great powers in the world benefit from the Empire continuing and WW1 will radically change the balance of power between the Ottomans and other actors. Especially with the Balkan nations, which if Bulgaria and Romania enter the war, will be badly injured.

The Ottomans meanwhile, are finally starting to see real benefits from the painful work modernizing the state over the 19th Century, will have a big windfall due to WW1 (like Spain I would expect they would make wipe out their debt and end up with a rather large gold reserve from exporting food, minerals, oil and weapons to warring Europe), industry will have been given a real shot in the arm - though there'll be a post war crash, overall the war would leave them in a better economic position if neither war nor crash had happened. Without the chaos of the Empire being dismembered and the cultural vandalism of the Kemal regime, literacy would grow faster than it did in the 20s in OTL, and I would expect that like Spain, Italy and Poland, the Ottomans would experience rapid economic growth after the post-war crash had ended.

However, the Ottomans very much can lose everything depending on how well the political center handles things. There will be two bad economic downturns and as with Spain, whatever regime in running the country could be unable to cope something messy could happen. I'd not bet on a civil war as in Spain however, and more like a badly chosen war to reconquer some part of the former empire leading to bad things.

Thinking about it... An Ottoman Empire without WW1 could look an awful lot like Fascist Italy by the 1930s...

fasquardon
My scenario is no WW1 at all.
 
Top