Ottoman Territory losses without WW1

kernals12

Banned
Had the Ottoman Empire not fallen apart during WW1, then the discoveries of oil in the 1930s would've brought new life into the ailing empire. But even without the war, the Ottomans had been shedding territory at a rapid pace for a long time, so in the period between 1914 and 1934 (OTL oil discovered in Iraq) with no WW1, what else would they lose?
 
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Deleted member 94680

More British incursions around the periphery in the Gulf region? An expansion of Kuwait or backing the Sauds to take more in the South?

I doubt there would be an "Arab Revolt" without significant external support and without a War, I doubt that support would be forthcoming.

You might even get the British propping the Sublime Porte up in exchange for oil rights or similar.
 

elkarlo

Banned
Agreed. I see support of the ottomans. Better a large weak empire like the Qing, they are easy to manipulate and to force bad deals on
 
Had the Ottoman Empire not fallen apart during WW1, then the discoveries of oil in the 1930s would've brought new life into the ailing empire. But even without the war, the Ottomans had been shedding territory at a rapid pace for a long time, so in the period between 1914 and 1934 (OTL oil discovered in Iraq), what else would they lose?

When exactly were the Ottomans losing territory without war? I really am curious. I can only think of Serbia and that has its reasons.

Most territory like Bulgaria, Arabia, Greece and other lands were lost due to constant wars.

If there was no WWI Ottoman participation. there was Yemen to lose (North Yemen). It was distant and had no more priority than Mosul or Palestine. And that is the most likely of all Ottoman ruled territories. Then there were also Egypt and Cyprus. While ruled by the British, it was up until 1914 Ottoman territory. Now the British won't likely return those back so you can count those as lost.

The size of the Ottoman borders will depend on whatever actually happens to Russia. If Russia turns communist the British are likely to preserve the existing borders of the Ottoman Empire. If the White Russians win there is no telling how the British will act. There is no red terror in the East to fear. But still not very keen to lose the oilfields to Russia.
 
I say the Dodecanese are lost. The Italians were supposed to return, it never got around to it. Perhaps we also see the small area the Ottomans ceded to Bulgaria being lost here? They did it in the lead up to when the Germans and some Turks did a false flag operation to bring the Ottomans into the war. Though I suppose one could say the assassinatoin of the Archduke was the same for the Serbs. I dunno.

How many things had been 'officially' lost at this point? Egypt was still officially a Khedivate I think, and it is possible that Some other place was as well.
 
The size of the Ottoman borders will depend on whatever actually happens to Russia. If Russia turns communist the British are likely to preserve the existing borders of the Ottoman Empire. If the White Russians win there is no telling how the British will act. There is no red terror in the East to fear. But still not very keen to lose the oilfields to Russia.

Maybe. The Western powers generally didn't want to see Russia on the Mediterranean so it's more likely they'd either rein the Russians in completely or make sure the Russians only get tiny bits and pieces here and there. A little bit more in eastern Anatolia but not much else.
 
I say the Dodecanese are lost. The Italians were supposed to return, it never got around to it. Perhaps we also see the small area the Ottomans ceded to Bulgaria being lost here? They did it in the lead up to when the Germans and some Turks did a false flag operation to bring the Ottomans into the war. Though I suppose one could say the assassinatoin of the Archduke was the same for the Serbs. I dunno.

How many things had been 'officially' lost at this point? Egypt was still officially a Khedivate I think, and it is possible that Some other place was as well.

There is Cyprus
 
North Yemen is going to be lost.

The British likely will try to expand Kuwait and in doing so they'll likely drive the Ottomans out of Eastern Arabia.

The British and French will probably seize Palestine and Lebanon. Britain wanted Palestinian ports to secure Egypt.

Losing nominal authority over Dodecanese, Tunisia, Cyprus, and Egypt is a possibility.


The Hijaz Railroad and the Baghdad Railroad make me think that the Ottomans can maintain control over Iraq and Hijaz.
 

kernals12

Banned
When exactly were the Ottomans losing territory without war? I really am curious. I can only think of Serbia and that has its reasons.

Most territory like Bulgaria, Arabia, Greece and other lands were lost due to constant wars.

If there was no WWI Ottoman participation. there was Yemen to lose (North Yemen). It was distant and had no more priority than Mosul or Palestine. And that is the most likely of all Ottoman ruled territories. Then there were also Egypt and Cyprus. While ruled by the British, it was up until 1914 Ottoman territory. Now the British won't likely return those back so you can count those as lost.

The size of the Ottoman borders will depend on whatever actually happens to Russia. If Russia turns communist the British are likely to preserve the existing borders of the Ottoman Empire. If the White Russians win there is no telling how the British will act. There is no red terror in the East to fear. But still not very keen to lose the oilfields to Russia.
In my scenario, it's not that the Ottomans don't participate in WW1, it's that there is no WW1. So adjust your predictions for Russia accordingly.
 

kernals12

Banned
North Yemen is going to be lost.

The British likely will try to expand Kuwait and in doing so they'll likely drive the Ottomans out of Eastern Arabia.

The British and French will probably seize Palestine and Lebanon. Britain wanted Palestinian ports to secure Egypt.

Losing nominal authority over Dodecanese, Tunisia, Cyprus, and Egypt is a possibility.


The Hijaz Railroad and the Baghdad Railroad make me think that the Ottomans can maintain control over Iraq and Hijaz.
Does "Eastern Arabia" mean the part of modern day Saudi Arabia that's on the Persian Gulf?
 
With all of these, it makes a difference if there is a general European war that decade on some other date, or if no general European war breaks out for another century.
 

kernals12

Banned
I imagine that the Ottomans would try to take back the territories they lost a la the 1974 Turkish invasion of Cyprus.
 
Without the Great War the Ottomans should have more opportunity to survive. I feel its biggest threat would be Russian designs on the Straits but we know the other powers are strictly opposed. I can see why folks argue that Britain is sharpening the carving knife but I am dubious. Britain was the biggest creditor to the Ottomans and just before the war had come to terms with German investments, the Iraqi oil was divided in favor of British interests, Britain holds the Ottomans in the noose from Aden to Kuwait but had no love for the Arabian tribes who were just as must a threat to them. Germany had few places to pour money so the OE was its ersatz Empire, so long as they are in the mix I think Britain is happier to exploit things rather than shatter it. Britain holds the Persian oil, the biggest part of Ottoman concessions and will be pressed to develop more. I think Russia is still far more focused on China to go to war for some more Islamic lands, rather I see it meddling in Persia where there is wealth not peasants. And I think we underestimate American interest in oil once Arabia is realized to have huge potential, until then she is the biggest exporter. So the OE will be sized then in the late-1940s or 1950s. But the British and Germans likely have a better working relationship on the ground and would need to fend off the American desire to get a piece of the bonanza. The better threat is rebellion once the Arab tribes realize they sit on the wealth.

The OE will shake off its debt and its dependence, but will it do more than just survive? Overall I think the evolution is longer termed and overall even with massive revenues from oil the OE remains rather hodge-podge in development, the wealth distribution will be almost as unequal as in any sheikdom, the bulk of monies likely skimmed, wasted or overspent on vanity projects or military hardware, discontent might run just as high, so oil wealth is not the panacea but the OE might do far better, that is the potential.
 
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