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what if the ottoman made alliance with Sweden in 1711.if ottoman destroy Peter the Great 40000 Russian army in Pruth 1711. For the ottoman the campaign season is over in July 1711; but in spring 1712 they can attack Azov.

The Russian will withdrawal their army in north germany to Russia after Purth catastrophe. Danish - Saxon troop strength after Russian and Polish army withdrawal is 30000 man. Swedish strength is 20000 in north germany. If swedish defeat Danish in early 1712 decisively as in http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Gadebusch .

Then Denemark will drop out the war and leave only Saxony in field. Swedish can ignore the Saxons and attack Russian in late 1712. The Russian will by hard pressed to stop ottoman swedish alliance. Peter the great was very careful not to fight two front war. Ottoman objective is left-bank ukraine and line Kiev to Volgograd. Distance between Azov castle and Volgograd is 400 Km.

In OTL the ottoman didn't give a damn to anything that was to east of Azov castle. In 1711 Russia attack ottoman in Moldavia and after that was planning to attack balkan. It was prudent to ottoman to keep Russian far as possible from Black sea coast. If Russia lose Pruth campaign they will lose more than Peter the great they will more than halve of trained army. Ottoman can get to volgograd in 1715. Swedish goal is the line pskov to novgorod to arkhangelsk. With that border Russia will not have seaport and be crippled .
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