alternatehistory.com

So, after much wrangling, I've finally decided what TL I'm doing after I finish my current one-Ottoman Persia! I'll be using two PODs, the first being that Shah Ismael I-essentially the founder of modern Iran-is killed by the Aq Qoyunlu tribe before his rise to power (I'll have to reread some Safavid history to get the exact details, but IIRC they came really close), and the Safavid order disintegrates. Instead of being supplanted by the Safavids, the Aq Qoyunlu stay in power and go up against the Ottomans in the early 16th century.

Now, IMO, the Aq Qoyunlu would do worse against the Ottomans than the Safavids did, for several reasons:

1)They got wiped out by the Safavids in 1501 IOTL, despite having a numerically superior army

2)The Safavids were a religious order (at first), and the Aq Qoyunlu were a tribal confederation united by the strength of their leaders. IMO, the AQ would be much more likely to collapse after a couple defeats by the Ottomans than the Safavids were, since they are not united by religion

3)Related to #2, the Safavids were Shia, which enabled them to cast their struggle against the Sunni Ottomans in religious terms. The AQ were Sunni, and so won't be able to do this with their struggle against the Sunni Caliph (the Ottomans claimed this title at the time).

I think that 2 and 3 in particular mean the Aq Qoyunlu will have far less cohesion and legetimacy than the Safavids did, and thus the outcome of an Ottoman-Aq Qoyunlu rivalry would be the collapse of the latter and the eventual occupation, by the Ottomans, of the AQ holdings in western and central Iran.

POD 2 will be the establishment of Hungary as an Ottoman vassal and buffer state between the Ottomans and the Hapsburgs (this TL won't have an attack on Vienna-the Ottomans will be too busy in Iran). I am considering two PODs to do this-one is having Louis II of Hungary survive the Battle of Mohacs and become the Ottoman's Hungarian king, the other is having John Zapolya (who tried to fit into this role IOTL) win the Battle of Tarcal. (The problem with this is that I have checked both a history of Hungary and a history of the Ottomans, and both contained less detail about John Zapolya's reign than Wikipedia, so I can't decide on an exact POD and am hesitant to go this route without more information on the subject).

Anyway, if anyone has ideas for this TL, feel free to contribute! I'm going to plain it out in this thread before I do the formal TL.
Top