Ottoman Persia TL

So, after much wrangling, I've finally decided what TL I'm doing after I finish my current one-Ottoman Persia! I'll be using two PODs, the first being that Shah Ismael I-essentially the founder of modern Iran-is killed by the Aq Qoyunlu tribe before his rise to power (I'll have to reread some Safavid history to get the exact details, but IIRC they came really close), and the Safavid order disintegrates. Instead of being supplanted by the Safavids, the Aq Qoyunlu stay in power and go up against the Ottomans in the early 16th century.

Now, IMO, the Aq Qoyunlu would do worse against the Ottomans than the Safavids did, for several reasons:

1)They got wiped out by the Safavids in 1501 IOTL, despite having a numerically superior army

2)The Safavids were a religious order (at first), and the Aq Qoyunlu were a tribal confederation united by the strength of their leaders. IMO, the AQ would be much more likely to collapse after a couple defeats by the Ottomans than the Safavids were, since they are not united by religion

3)Related to #2, the Safavids were Shia, which enabled them to cast their struggle against the Sunni Ottomans in religious terms. The AQ were Sunni, and so won't be able to do this with their struggle against the Sunni Caliph (the Ottomans claimed this title at the time).

I think that 2 and 3 in particular mean the Aq Qoyunlu will have far less cohesion and legetimacy than the Safavids did, and thus the outcome of an Ottoman-Aq Qoyunlu rivalry would be the collapse of the latter and the eventual occupation, by the Ottomans, of the AQ holdings in western and central Iran.

POD 2 will be the establishment of Hungary as an Ottoman vassal and buffer state between the Ottomans and the Hapsburgs (this TL won't have an attack on Vienna-the Ottomans will be too busy in Iran). I am considering two PODs to do this-one is having Louis II of Hungary survive the Battle of Mohacs and become the Ottoman's Hungarian king, the other is having John Zapolya (who tried to fit into this role IOTL) win the Battle of Tarcal. (The problem with this is that I have checked both a history of Hungary and a history of the Ottomans, and both contained less detail about John Zapolya's reign than Wikipedia, so I can't decide on an exact POD and am hesitant to go this route without more information on the subject).

Anyway, if anyone has ideas for this TL, feel free to contribute! I'm going to plain it out in this thread before I do the formal TL.
 
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Couldn't POD #2 be a butterfly of POD #1?

Well, I suppose I could have Mohacs happen a few years earlier or a few years later, when the Hapsburgs are busy (earlier actually seems good-the Hapsburgs will be busy with the Italian Wars, and give John Zapolya some time to consolidate his position which he didn't have IOTL).

An important part of this TL is that I want to eventually make Hungary Calvinist (Hungary IOTL had a strong Calvinist movement, especially in Transylvania). Calvinist Hungary will be a little Protestant island in a sea of Catholics and Orthodox, which, until the mid 17th century, will give it an incentive to maintain its alliance with the Ottomans and not try to challenge their power in the Balkans.

I'm trying to think of POD 2's knock-off effects on Germany-the early modern HRE is my second favorite place to write TL's, besides the Middle East.
 
Ottoman Army conquer Astrahan and build Don-Volga canal in 1571.
Ottoman Navy conquer Caspian Sea.
Ottoman Army conquer Iran in 1590s supplied by Ottoman Navy at Caspian Sea
 

Don Grey

Banned
So, after much wrangling, I've finally decided what TL I'm doing after I finish my current one-Ottoman Persia! I'll be using two PODs, the first being that Shah Ismael I-essentially the founder of modern Iran-is killed by the Aq Qoyunlu tribe before his rise to power (I'll have to reread some Safavid history to get the exact details, but IIRC they came really close), and the Safavid order disintegrates. Instead of being supplanted by the Safavids, the Aq Qoyunlu stay in power and go up against the Ottomans in the early 16th century.

Now, IMO, the Aq Qoyunlu would do worse against the Ottomans than the Safavids did, for several reasons:

1)They got wiped out by the Safavids in 1501 IOTL, despite having being numerically superior

2)The Safavids were a religious order (at first), and the Aq Qoyunlu were a tribal confederation united by the strength of their leaders. IMO, the AQ would be much more likely to collapse after a couple defeats by the Ottomans than the Safavids were, since they are not united by religion

3)Related to #2, the Safavids were Shia, which enabled them to cast their struggle against the Sunni Ottomans in religious terms. The AQ were Sunni, and so won't be able to do this with their struggle against the Sunni Caliph (the Ottomans claimed this title at the time).

I think that 2 and 3 in particular mean the Aq Qoyunlu will have far less cohesion and legetimacy than the Safavids did, and thus the outcome of an Ottoman-Aq Qoyunlu rivalry would be the collapse of the latter and the eventual occupation, by the Ottomans, of the AQ holdings in western and central Iran.

POD 2 will be the establishment of Hungary as an Ottoman vassal and buffer state between the Ottomans and the Hapsburgs (this TL won't have an attack on Vienna-the Ottomans will be too busy in Iran). I am considering two PODs to do this-one is having Louis II of Hungary survive the Battle of Mohacs and become the Ottoman's Hungarian king, the other is having John Zapolya (who tried to fit into this role IOTL) win the Battle of Tarcal. (The problem with this is that I have checked both a history of Hungary and a history of the Ottomans, and both contained less detail about John Zapolya's reign than Wikipedia, so I can't decide on an exact POD and am hesitant to go this route without more information on the subject).

Anyway, if anyone has ideas for this TL, feel free to contribute! I'm going to plain it out in this thread before I do the formal TL.


The POD sounds good. Best time i can think of it would be selims time. If he had only lived longer things would have been diffrent. Suleyman also tried to take persia. He took persian azerbeyjan and persian kurdistan region. Suleyman was looking for a pitched battle so he could destroy the persian army thus eliminating there fighting power. But the persians were clever they new fighting the otto army on open field would be suicide so they just harrased the army and forced it to go deeper and deeper into persia's harsh interior. After a while suleyman realized that this was pointless so pulled back keeping persian azerbeyjan and kurdistan regions.It becomes so much more easy without the safavids but even with them with a battle on open field selim or suleymen at the head there situation doesn look good.

As for the second one i like it too. Its nice to see the ottomans not beating there heads against the hapsburg wall.They already had a fair chunck of the balkans vessalising hungary is great idea. If the persians are nocked out early and permanantly then that would free up lots of troop for western expantian in the future.
 
Ottoman Army conquer Astrahan and build Don-Volga canal in 1571.
Ottoman Navy conquer Caspian Sea.
Ottoman Army conquer Iran in 1590s supplied by Ottoman Navy at Caspian Sea

Thats a lot of money and effort for a project on the vulnerable fringe of the Ottoman sphere, especially as it wouldn't be a deep-water canal. Why not just build a fleet in Baku at a tenth of the cost.

This is without going into how control of the Caspian will do jack and shit for aiding in controlling Persia, what with the Persian heartlands being on the other side of the Alborz mountain range and the Caspian sea littoral being not that relevent to the state.
 
in OTL Ottomans builds 1/3 parts of Don-Volga canal in 1569 but failed this operation cremian tatars didn't support.
also baku in safavid empire in 1570s
if Don-Volga canal was built ottoman army may be landed Khorasan.
ı think money not problem for Ottomans.Empire has gigantic resources,can suppy 150000 troops
also uzbeks may be supports İran invasion.
 
Because the Grand Prince will just leave them alone when they take Astrakhan, right?

I think getting established there, they acquire themselves a persistent enemy a whole century earlier and that in the long run may well distract them from consolidating in Persia, and also weaken them regarding the West.

Ak Koyunlu sounds like a bettr possibility to me.
 
Because the Grand Prince will just leave them alone when they take Astrakhan, right?

I think getting established there, they acquire themselves a persistent enemy a whole century earlier and that in the long run may well distract them from consolidating in Persia, and also weaken them regarding the West.

Ak Koyunlu sounds like a bettr possibility to me.

This. I'm not going to have a Volga-Don Canal ITTL, for the reasons Nugax listed. Much easier for the Ottomans to just take Tabriz, which would then serve as a good base for striking either the north or southwest of Persia.

Thanks everyone for their ideas!
 
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