Ottoman Navy used effectively in the Russian-Turkish war[s]

What if in 1877, the Ottoman command decided to defeat the Black Sea Fleet of Russia and force the Russians to retreat from Romania and the offensive operations they did?

P.o.d. involved:

[The Russian Army sends more troops against the Ottomans and threatens the Black Sea coast with encirclement. In response, the Ottoman Navy sorties against the attempt to halt the Russian advance.]

On 24 April 1877, after the Russian declaration of war on the Ottoman Empire, the Russian Army advanced with overwhelming force against the Ottoman Army and defeated the Ottomans over the next 2 months. On 9 July, the Ottoman Army of Osman Pasha was defeated before Plevna and other Ottoman troops would be defeated decisively had it been not for the transferring of troops in the Black Sea fortresses, which were used to quell the Russian advance while the Ottoman Navy sailed to defeat the Russians.

As a result of debates ongoing on the Ottoman side, it was decided that the Ottomans sail to defeat the Russian Black Sea Fleet and divert attention from the offensive. After consultation, the Ottoman Navy proceeded to sortie in conjunction with an offensive from the army of Suleiman Pasha. The Ottoman naval squadron consisted of 8 ironclads and a variety of smaller vessels, plus several transports and this resulted in the Ottomans sortieing with confidence.

On 20 July 1877, the Ottoman Navy defeated the Russian Navy with a bombardment of Odessa and some fortresses and the Black Sea Fleet received its worst day after the Crimean War. In the battle, Odessa was shelled and the Black Sea Fleet lost more or less everything in it following the battle, while the Ottomans lost 2 ironclads. It was believed that the Russians would face a sea invasion and corps withdrawn from the battle allowed Suleiman Pasha to liberate Plevna with heavy losses for his army.

Meanwhile, the Baltic Fleet was to be shifted south in an attempt to stop the Ottoman advance and persuade a Greek entry into the war. The timing was desperate, but with the Ottomans being temporarily distracted, this might work at least for the first weeks. Adherence to the 1856 Treaty of Paris was blamed for the Ottoman victory.
 
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The voyage of the Baltic Fleet to the eastern Mediterranean

After the defeat of the Black Sea Fleet by the Ottoman Navy, the Russians would attempt to interfere with the Ottoman Navy and subsequent operations against the Black Sea coast. A large convoy of 5 ironclads, 10 monitors and assorted smaller vessels and escorts would depart the port of St. Petersburg for Crete and cause the Ottomans to divert their forces against the Black Sea Fleet. On 10 August, the first fleet of ships [ironclads, former Mediterranean Squadron ships and frigate transports] sailed from the Baltic and the presence of monitors forced the British to watch them or face grounding by diversionary movements, which succeeded. It took more than a week to sail the squadron into the Atlantic and another more before entering the Mediterranean. After the entrance into the Straits of Gibraltar, the Royal Navy was alerted, but the grounding of several ships and the threat of war evaded the Russians as they sailed into Crete and had the Greeks cheering. During the resulting battle on 1 October, the Ottoman Navy's Mediterranean Fleet was defeated decisively after being forced aground despite minor losses to the Russians and the Greek majority island was occupied quickly.

Meanwhile, the Royal Navy was preparing for war against Russia and the Baltic was to be blockaded. However, the threat of the Baltic Fleet breaking out temporarily held the British. In the meantime, the Ottomans faced a Greek declaration of war and the loss of 5 ironclads off Crete and 2 after the Greek invasion, with 3 needed to watch other Mediterranean ports. However, the British might be able to save them just in time, like in the previous war. Then, the Russian advance was such that the troops would be in Constantinople after a temporary retreat and the loss of Plevna.

By December 1877, the remnants of the Ottoman Army were trapped in Plevna and were forced to surrender over the next month. The Russian Army prepared to invade Bulgaria and liberate it from Ottoman control. To the south, the Greeks were on a line stretching from Ioannina to Salonika. The Ottomans had to restore the frontline by removing troops from the Serbian and Montenegrin borders, encouraging the bordering nations to declare war in May 1878, after the Russian offensive across the Balkans resumed. 1878 wouldn't look good for the Ottomans despite their earlier naval victory at the Black Sea.

By 22 April 1878, the stage was set for the next Russian offensive, which entered Bulgaria from Plevna and the Shipka Pass. On 15 June, the Ottomans were forced into eastern Thrace and by 3 August 1878, the Russians and Greeks were in Constantinople. Despite the Ottoman defeat over the war of 1877 to 1878, the naval victories in that war would boost spending on the Ottoman Navy over the following decades. As in real life, the Royal Navy's intimidation would prevent the Russians from entering Constantinople despite reaching San Stefano by Russian advance on 23 July 1878 and also from maintaining a blockade of the Dardanelles over the 1878 campaign, although futile until Constantinople was reached. The final peace treaty terms in this scenario, signed on 5 January 1879 in Berlin, were similar to the real life Treaty of Berlin in 1878, apart from Greece, which would receive only Thessaly by treaty [a few years earlier than real life] and Crete would join Greece after a plebiscite in 1882 with Russian and Greek support, earlier peace treaties to end the war having been futile like the Treaty of San Stefano, which was signed in San Stefano and failed to effect peace like in real life between Russia and the Ottoman Empire.

Effects will be a bigger spending on the navy by the Ottoman Empire and Russia due to the initial Ottoman victories over Russian capital ships in the Black Sea off the Russian coast followed by the 1877 to 1878 naval defeats of the Ottomans off Crete, mainland Greece and Albania by the Russians in the Mediterranean Sea, a more decisive victory over Greece in 1897 with naval support, no Young Turks' coup in 1908 and an Ottoman victory over Italy in 1911 and/or the Balkans in 1912. What happens afterwards [including WW1 and the final dismantling of the Ottoman Empire] is subject to butterflies.
 
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Neat! A war of 1877 TL! I don't really know enough to comment usefully, but I am eagerly awaiting more updates.

fasquardon
 
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