Ottoman Libya

With a POD of the Italian 1911 invasion of Libya let us say that Britain stands aside and let the Khedive of Egypt permit the passage of Ottoman troops and supplies into Libya across Egypt. What might change from OTL as a result?
 
Well the Italians are going to be very angry with the British, even more so if they're humiliatingly defeated by the Ottomans, which might potentially make them more open to fulfilling their commitments under the Triple Alliance. The Ottomans had been trying to gain an official alliance with people in the years prior to the Great War, the Ottoman foreign minister even bringing it up during a visit to France IIRC, but was rebuffed for reasons I'm not sure of. An interesting scenario would be a Great War with Italy in the Central Powers or at least neutral and aligned with them whilst the Ottoman Empire is a member of the Entente or aligned with them.
 
Well the Italians are going to be very angry with the British, even more so if they're humiliatingly defeated by the Ottomans, which might potentially make them more open to fulfilling their commitments under the Triple Alliance. The Ottomans had been trying to gain an official alliance with people in the years prior to the Great War, the Ottoman foreign minister even bringing it up during a visit to France IIRC, but was rebuffed for reasons I'm not sure of. An interesting scenario would be a Great War with Italy in the Central Powers or at least neutral and aligned with them whilst the Ottoman Empire is a member of the Entente or aligned with them.

So if the Ottomans win in Libya then they may stay neutral at least in WW1 and Italy align with the Central Powers?
 
So if the Ottomans win in Libya then they may stay neutral at least in WW1 and Italy align with the Central Powers?
Well it depends on whether it leads to Anglo-French and Ottoman relations taking an uptick or if their designs on the Middle East still preclude an alliance. As I said the Ottomans tried sounding out the British and French about an alliance or some form of diplomatic agreement but weren't able to make it happen for some reason, without knowing why that wax can't really say for sure what the possible consequences of the point of divergence might be.
 
So if the Ottomans win in Libya then they may stay neutral at least in WW1 and Italy align with the Central Powers?

Than the British might invade Italian colonies in Eastern Africa and there is a African theather in WW1 or earlier.
 
Err... there was an African theatre in the Great War in our timeline. Rather a lot of people died in it.

Yes, I mean in Eastern Africa ( Eritrea, Abyssinia, Somaliland etc.) not only German South-West Africa etc.
 
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Yes, I mean in Eastern Africa ( Eritrea, Abyssinia, Somaliland etc.) not only German South-West Africa etc.
Ah right, the 'and there is a African theather in WW1 or earlier' made it read as though you were suggesting there wasn't one in our timeline. Even Eastern Africa was a bit ambiguous considering Tanganyika.
 

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With a POD of the Italian 1911 invasion of Libya let us say that Britain stands aside and let the Khedive of Egypt permit the passage of Ottoman troops and supplies into Libya across Egypt. What might change from OTL as a result?

Wasn't there a degree of infiltration in OTL? And if the Ottomans were marching through Egypt as an army, wouldn't the Italians be waiting for them with prepared defenses, which could be effective against a mighty thirsty and tired Ottoman Army that's just marched and caravanned through the western desert?
 
Smart Ottomans would ship troops to the port that was closest to the Libyan border, then march along the coast until they could capture a Libyan port like Benghezi.
 
With a POD of the Italian 1911 invasion of Libya let us say that Britain stands aside and let the Khedive of Egypt permit the passage of Ottoman troops and supplies into Libya across Egypt. What might change from OTL as a result?

The problem is, it's nearly ASB for them to formally allow the Turks to do so. The border actually was fairly porous, as many Muslims tried helping out against the perceived aggression; formally allowing the passage would be seen as an hostile gesture towards Italy and, more importantly, lengthen a War that was already felt as stretching too long. Also of note - the Ottomans did manage to keep Italy from occupying but a tiny coastal strip OTL, so it's not like they needed more troops. They were doomed by a simple lack of true friends - if Austria-Hungary, not exactly an Italy-friendly power, was the one to suggest a peaceful transfer of the province, you can imagine how little the others would care. Italian friendship and stability were both more important...

But let us assume Britain dislikes it, and allows the troops through.
I would then expect a stalemate - the Turks might be able to expel the Italians, but they are hopelessly outclassed on the sea and there might be more serious follow-ups to the occupation of the Dodecanese.
In the end, a negotiated settlement where Italy may not even get Libya, but only stronger, kinda meaningless guarantees on their economical penetration, will ensue; the First Balkan War probably happens similarly to OTL (the Turks are feared more, but can field less defenders as they're warring on two fronts), and Italy probably is less desired as an ally and more distrustful, leading to a later WW1 entry.
 

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Wasn't there a degree of infiltration in OTL?

The odd officer moved through Egypt by their own means, but no body of troops were permitted.

And if the Ottomans were marching through Egypt as an army, wouldn't the Italians be waiting for them with prepared defenses, which could be effective against a mighty thirsty and tired Ottoman Army that's just marched and caravanned through the western desert?

Depends when the Ottomans send troops across, early enough and the Italians are still trying to secure their beachheads so won't have the ability to be waiting for them.

Smart Ottomans would ship troops to the port that was closest to the Libyan border, then march along the coast until they could capture a Libyan port like Benghezi.

You know Libya was Ottoman at the time, right? Or do you mean re-capture if the Italians have got there first? From what I've read, Benghazi took a while to fall, so the Ottoman army might be able to prevent that from happening.
 
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