Ottoman-Italians War

Hashasheen

Banned
What if the Ottomans won the war against the Italians? :confused: They were getting pretty hammered in Libya with only the local garrisons and tribes, as I recall; so if the Ottomans did decide to fight a full war, would they have won?
 
Even if the Ottomans had the won the war, it would have made little difference (assuming they still went along with the Germans in WWI). The Ottomans would have retained Tripoli for another few years, then would have been mandated or given a protectorate to some other power. Same outcome, really.
 
Even if the Ottomans had the won the war, it would have made little difference (assuming they still went along with the Germans in WWI). The Ottomans would have retained Tripoli for another few years, then would have been mandated or given a protectorate to some other power. Same outcome, really.
That assumes we'd get a WW1 that is identical to the OTL one, which is not a given. For one thing, if the Ottomans win the war with Italy, the First Balkans War will be affected, which would influence Serbian attitudes (the idea of supporting terrorism in the Habsburg Empire might be less influential if Macedonia is still under Ottoman rule, for instance)...
 
What if the Ottomans won the war against the Italians? :confused: They were getting pretty hammered in Libya with only the local garrisons and tribes, as I recall; so if the Ottomans did decide to fight a full war, would they have won?

The italians were getting "hammered" because they understimated the lybian resistance and sent only 20000 men (the goverment actually believed that the lybian desired to seced from the ottoman empire). Once realized that no one were awaiting them with flowers, the italian sent a larger army and took the chance to experiment the first aerial bombardaments.
The ottomans, on the other side, were even less prepared than the italians to war and their fleet was in particular vastly inferior to the regia marina. In fact the italians, during the war, took anything they could from the empire, without having to to land on the turkish mainland, where they would have been defeated by the larger turk manpower. The war actually stalled because both could not hurt the other effectevely.

A stronger turkish navy could have put the italians in difficulty. An italian defeat would have probably butterlied away the first balkan war, since the balkan nations attacked Turkey to exploit the perceived empire weakness. Without the war, the geopolitical situation of the area change considerably and this, in turn could alter the WW1.
 

yourworstnightmare

Banned
Donor
1. Ottoman victory would affect the Balkan wars, would probably not happen. Serbia, Greece, Montenegro and Bulgaria would still be uneasy allies with the weakening of the Ottoman Empire as their main foreign policy goal, the Serbs would not turn their interests towards the Habsburgs.
2. Italy being humiliated could also create Italian butterflies, not an expert on Italian interior policies at this time, but I guess changes would happen.
3. With Serbia still more agitated by the Ottoman Empire, than the Habsburgs, a certain murder in Sarajevo would not happen, and the first world war would start due to some other reason altogether.
 
2. Italy being humiliated could also create Italian butterflies, not an expert on Italian interior policies at this time, but I guess changes would happen.

It was only marginally more stable than it was in 1919, so if this is a humiliating loss then it could have major political ramifications. Might lead to an earlier Italian political crisis as it would make the liberal government look weak. A lot of the more vocal nationalist/imperialist factions of the time loudly supported the war, and depending on how and why things went bad might a) lose them public support or b) actually turn this into a political victory for them by claiming (as they did post-WW1) betrayal and incompetence by the government.

Assuming a), most of the radical politics of the time were anti-state socialist and syndicalist, with part of the latter drifting towards nationalism (and the foundations of Fascism)...at the most moderate a more socialist/syndicalist parliament; at weirdest the rise of a decentralized (Balkanized?) socialist/syndicalist Italy?

Assuming b), at the most moderate a more right/imperial leaning parliament; at weirdest case...well, at this point D'Annunzio's a lot younger and more energetic...maybe the rise of a Decadent proto-Fascism under D'Annunzio ala the Fiume Republic? :eek:
 
Assuming a), most of the radical politics of the time were anti-state socialist and syndicalist, with part of the latter drifting towards nationalism (and the foundations of Fascism)...at the most moderate a more socialist/syndicalist parliament; at weirdest the rise of a decentralized (Balkanized?) socialist/syndicalist Italy?

It might be one of my idea fixa, but might this not be a time where the Two Sicilies (even as a revolutionary republic) might reestablish itself?
 
It might be one of my idea fixa, but might this not be a time where the Two Sicilies (even as a revolutionary republic) might reestablish itself?

No, it was too late for such a division. The Bourbons had lost any real support in Italy and the southern higher classes had been integrated into italian politic. A disastorus defeat in the 1866 war could do the trick, though I've some doubts anyway.

Italy being humiliated could also create Italian butterflies, not an expert on Italian interior policies at this time, but I guess changes would happen.

As Geekhis Khan wrote, it depends on how bad was the defeat. Head of goverment was at the time Giovanni Giolitti, a true master in the art of survival politic. Sinking the old dinosaur would be quite difficult, but the right wing parties, if played their cards well, could in effect gain the goverment. Since this faction still followed the political lines laid down by Crispi at the end of 19th century, the main conseguence would be probably a Central Power Italy in 1914.
 
What if the Ottomans won the war against the Italians? :confused: They were getting pretty hammered in Libya with only the local garrisons and tribes, as I recall; so if the Ottomans did decide to fight a full war, would they have won?

Completey changes the world, I'd imagine Libya would get gobbled up by the British or French Empires eventualy.

No Ottoman collapse in the Balkans means that the states like Serbia who benefited from the war are far weaker and can get gobbled up in turn by the Hapsburgs (Who placed Imperialist ambitions that way after defeat in Italy and Germany), by that I mean creating protectorates and such in Serbia and Montenegro and sphere of influence on the rest of the Balkans. Russia as such doesn't create its Slavic alliances and as such don't come to blows with AH.

I'd imagine the great powers would come to blows eventualy however it would involve a stronger AH an Italy less willing to (and less capable of) being involved in a wider European war (Potential neutrality) Russia is weaker and the Ottomans are more powerful and more involved on the CP side. This combination has the potential for A CP victory TL and the inevitable Germany wank and Federalised A-H empire that follows.

Regards Bobbis
 
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