Ottoman intervention in the Second Balkan War

[ghappy1000]

[P.o.d.: The Ottomans defeat the Greek Navy but lose the 1st Balkan War [probably with Gallipoli, more islands and Anatolia in Greek hands or WW1 occurs over the 2nd Balkan War.]
June 1913
After the Bulgarian role in causing the Second Balkan War, three senior Ottoman ministers and their counterparts decided on taking Greek territory despite the distraction of a growing Bulgaria nearby. Although the debate regarding Edirne and eastern Thrace [which were under Bulgarian control] was underway, the Ottomans finally decided on assisting Bulgaria in attacks against the Greeks and Serbs. This was also assisted by anticipated Russian support for Serbia and the opportunity of recapturing Caucasian territories lost and weakening its Entente allies couldn't be missed. Also, Russia was responsible for the Balkan Wars by creating the independent Balkan states which attacked the Ottoman Empire months ago and Bulgaria might be a potential ally against Russia and other Balkan states.

After final debating, the Ottomans declared war on Greece on 25 June 1913, with Serbia and Montenegro responding on 27 June. Romania awaited the news with anticipation of a Serbian-Greek victory over Bulgaria before launching its offensive against Bulgaria following an Ottoman naval demonstration. The Ottoman Army was first sent to watch the Romanian border with Bulgaria and defeated an offensive by the Greeks at the Struma River intended to reach Kresna and the mountains of southern Thrace. [Redeployment of Bulgarian troops allowed the Greeks to advance slightly further compared to reality, but the Greek offensive was halted nevertheless by Ottoman 1st Army deployment.] The defeated offensive was followed by a counterattack that encircled the Greek Army on 1 August and it took less than a week to defeat the Greeks.
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Kresna_Gorge

In the aftermath, the Ottomans were ordered to push into Greece proper with Bulgarian assistance and Salonika with its surrounding peninsula was besieged on 15 August. The Greek Navy was ordered to support the besieged city, but an ambush led to a pyrrhic Ottoman victory over the Greeks [one battleship, one cruiser, auxiliaries and 2 destroyers lost in the battle for the Ottomans and 2 cruisers, 4 destroyers, a submarine, 3 ironclads and several merchant ships for Greece]. In the aftermath of the defeat, Greece had to abandon Salonika to its fate by starvation over 3 weeks of siege and the city was retaken by the Ottomans before passing into Bulgarian control following Bulgarian requests.

Finally, the Treaty of Salonika was signed on 15 September 1913, 10 days after the fall of Salonika and a week after the armistice. In the treaty, Greece lost Salonika and Western Thrace to the Ottomans, which were later passed to Bulgaria, $1 million for reparations to war damage and several smaller warships to Bulgaria and the Ottomans. Serbia and Romania signed peace treaties with Bulgaria and the Ottoman Empire on 20 September that resulted in another $1 million lost per country [except Montenegro] and disarming [with Greece] of several divisions. This was assisted by the defeat of Serbian and Romanian offensives against Bulgaria.

 

[ghappy1000]

Russian and Austro-Hungarian intervention

Following the defeat of Greece, the Russian Navy mobilised in anticipation of war against the Ottomans. The Russian Black Sea Fleet mobilised and sailed for an attack on Bulgaria and Constantinople with 5 battleships, 2 cruisers and 10 destroyers plus submarines, transports and auxiliaries.
[https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=361213 but with a difference of 3 years earlier.]

After the assaults on Constantinople, the Ottoman Navy readied the remnants of its fleet and guns. In response, guns and artillery were moved from the Dardanelles to Constantinople in anticipation of the attack, but the Ottoman Navy lost its remaining battleship, 2 cruisers and 8 destroyers and torpedo boats. The Russians lost 3 battleships, 2 cruisers and 4 destroyers and were entering the palace compound when the danger to the empire arose. Ottoman troops were withdrawn from Gallipoli and the Levant to defend the capital city. A diversion to intercept Bulgarian reinforcements sank several light vessels in return for a sunken battleship.

On September 11, the battle for the city seemed to be over after 10 days when the Russians faced an attack from troops based from Gallipoli. In the battle, the Ottomans lost several lighter vessels while the Bulgarians lost 2 torpedo boats in sinking the remnants of the Russian Black Sea Fleet. Although the battle for Constantinople was won by the Ottomans, it would come at the costly price of losing almost its entire navy to Russian guns. And the Russians would be building their dreadnoughts.

To the east, the Russian Caucasian Army built up its strength and launched its offensive against the Ottoman Third Army, capturing Trebizond after declaring war on 11 August and besieging Erzurum, which fell to the Russians during the battle of Constantinople. By the end of the phrase of war, the Russians had effectively routed the Ottoman 3rd Army with heavy casualties in the beginning.

After requests for assistance, Germany and Austria-Hungary mobilised and prepared to attack Russia in support of the Ottomans. As Germany had to go on the offensive in the west with the Schlieffen plan, Austria-Hungary had to go on the offensive in the east, capturing Komarow and several Russian troops shortly after the declaration of war on Russia by Austria-Hungary on 28 August and Serbia received a declaration of war on 30 August. In early September, Germany and Austria-Hungary were at war with the Entente powers [Britain, France, Belgium, Serbia, Montenegro and Russia] exactly 11 months earlier than reality. At the same moment, the Russians prepared to invade East Prussia and 'Greater Poland' in anticipation of war and the survival of its Balkan states.

To the south, Austria-Hungary mobilised its army for operations on the borders with Serbia and Romania. The Austro-Hungarian 2nd Army was to attack Romania and northern Serbia before turning east while the 5th and 6th Armies had to operate against Serbia proper. Due to the change in the tide of world events, this would never occur as wished and planned.

 

[ghappy1000]

The conflict turns into a world war [France]

After the German declaration of war on France, the Germans prepared to face the French offensive from Alsace-Lorraine while the 1st, 3rd and 2nd German Armies invaded Belgium and the 4th made its way through Luxembourg to France. The 6th and 7th Armies would defeat the French offensive and launch diversionary attacks from Alsace-Lorraine to divert French attention and permit the German Armies to march into Paris.

Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_the_Frontiers
On 5 September, the French Army launched its offensive into Alsace-Lorraine towards Mulhouse. After the German 2nd Army order of battle was captured on 7 September, convinced Joffre that the strength of the German forces on the flanks had left the centre weak and vulnerable to an offensive towards Alsace despite the heavy fortifications. On 8 September, Joffre issued General Instruction No. 1, with his intention of declaring the destruction of the German defensive armies as more important than capturing ground.
The offensive into Alsace and Lorraine by the French First and Second armies into Lorraine, if done to plan, would divert German defensive forces and reinforcements, weakening the main offensive further north and outflanking both the German centre and northern forces coming from Belgium to Alsace with an entrance into Alsace before flanking movements. As the attack into the German centre would be most profitable for the French with minimal German opposition, the First and Second armies would advance to envelope the German defences around Metz–Thionville from the south, with the Fourth Reserve Group securing the offensive's northern flank and cover the Chimay Gap besides diverting any German attack. The strategy would work only under the assumption that the main German force were advancing through Luxembourg and from Metz–Thionville, with reduced forces than expected in Belgium and a gap that would allow the French to exploit and destroy German Army units.
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Mulhouse
After 3 days of fighting since 7 September through Alsace, Mulhouse was lost to the French with one division decimated, but the French 1st Army faced a counterattack from German Corps coming from Strasbourg and was forced to evacuate the town, with the Germans fighting a covering action in support of the counteroffensive. On 20 September, a counterattack took the towns securing Mulhouse's southern flank and was cut off from German communications temporarily, but the Germans counterattacked after holding the French offensive with the defensive terrain of Alsace and the Rhine. However, the surrounding Rhine bridges and valleys leading into Germany were lost and French troops had gained control of Upper Alsace, threatening the German 6th Army. Captured ground was consolidated and troops prepared to continue the offensive, but results fell below the support that the Army of Alsace had been demanded. The German 7th Army threatened the French First Army's right flank, which moved troops after a small encirclement. On 23 September, attack preparations were halted as defeats in Lorraine and Belgium were known and 2 decimated corps were shifted to the Somme. To provide reinforcements for the French armies closer to Paris, the French Army retreated to Altkirch and prepared a line that could be better defended. The Army of Alsace was disbanded simultaneously after an army was defeated decisively.

 

[ghappy1000]

Austro-Hungarian mobilisation and operations against Serbia

After the declaration of war on the Austro-Hungarian Empire, Serbia proceeded to prepare for defensive operations should the Austro-Hungarians invade the country and the capital city was moved south to Nish in anticipation of Austro-Hungarian movement against the country. Luckily for them, the 1st diversionary offensive launched on 15 September 1913 was defeated.

Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Cer
After the Austro-Hungarian offensive began on 12 September, the cities of Belgrade, Smederevo and Sabac faced extremely vigorous shelling by artillery and guns, resulting in successful attempts at crossing the Danube by Austro-Hungarian troops with several losses. Most of the Austro-Hungarian troops near Serbia were intended to attack in Bosnia, and the Serbian General Staff, although initially deceived by these diversions on the Danube, realised the truth later. To support the attacks, 5th and 6th Austro-Hungarian Armies crossed the Drina at Ljubovija and the Sava at devastated Sabac, and these attacks were seen as more significant. On 13 September, Austro-Hungarian troops made their first entrance into Serbia by capturing Loznica, a border town on the Drina and crossing it. There, and in Lesnica, the Austro-Hungarian troops penetrated the line, while on the same day, the 4th Army Corps of Austria-Hungary crossed the Sava to the north of Šabac and captured it, while other Austro-Hungarian troops penetrated Serbian defences along the Drina. The diversion to the north threatened to outflank the Serbian Army, but the Bulgarian threat to the south nearly kept the Serbian 2nd Army from the Austro-Hungarian front.

By 14 September, over the approximately 100 miles long front, the Austro-Hungarian 5th and 6th Armies had crossed the rivers and captured Valjevo after outflanking. The Austro-Hungarian 2nd and 5th Armies approached and besieged Belgrade, where they encountered the Serbian 1st, 2nd and 3rd Armies. On 15 August, Potiorek ordered his forces into a decisive offensive against Serbia. However, the Serbian 2nd Army was coming despite its hasty return from the Bulgarian border.
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Cer , 11 months earlier for the battle than reality with slightly worse Serbian performance.]

Despite this, the battle was a reason [along with the surrender of Greece] that ended the second Serbian war with Bulgaria and [1st after 1900]. After the Austro-Hungarian offensive, a Serbian offensive failed and this prompted the Austro-Hungarians to invade Serbia again with Bulgarian assistance. The next offensive would refute the myth of 'Serbia winning against its bigger northern neighbour' as it was decisively defeated. [To be continued.]

Source: [URL="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Kolubara"]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Kolubara[/URL]
Most of the valleys in northwest Serbia encountered heavy rainfall constantly and surrounding mountains were too cold since snow arrived in October. Recognizing the disadvantageous but golden opportunity that such conditions presented, Putnik informed his closest advisors and Bulgaria: "All my strategy consists in placing the 'Serbian national mud' between the enemy's fighting line and his supplies."After several weeks of shelling and preparations, von Frank's 5th Army moved southwards into the region between the Sava and Drina rivers while Potiorek's 6th Army drove west across the Drina and into the Jagodnja plateau. Austria-Hungary's second invasion of Serbia started on 26 November 1913, with heavy shelling wrecking several Serbian border towns. On 27 November, the Austro-Hungarian 5th and 6th armies attacked across the Drina. Despite the odds against the army and the critical need of weapons, the Serbian Army resisted fiercely but futilely as the troops retreated with heavy losses. The 3rd Army defended a road in an effort to stop the Austro-Hungarian advance towards Valjevo by the Jadar River, while the 1st Army retreated southward into the Serbian interior and the Užice Army barely stopped the Austro-Hungarian invasion of the Drina.
On 28 November, the Austro-Hungarians attacked the Serbian 1st Army near Cer Mountain and penetrated the Serbian frontline, entrenching themselves at the foot of the mountain. The 1st and 2nd Armies were given orders to repulse the Austro-Hungarians for the longest possible time and withdraw towards the right bank of the River Dobrava to stop an advance to Valjevo. Elsewhere, the Austro-Hungarians created a gap between the 1st and 3rd Army and caused a chaotic Serbian retreat.Later that day, the Serbian Government and the Serbian Supreme Command discussed Serbia's worsening military position. Putnik stressed that Serbia needed to hold Kolubara and the towns within its vicinity and asked for a peace with Austria-Hungary if impossible. The meeting ended with both Government and Supreme Command agreeing to persist resistance.
Putnik believed in overstretching of the Austro-Hungarian supply lines the deeper into Serbia they penetrated while the Serbs would retain the railroads in the Serbian homeland. On 30 November, a general retreat from the Jadar and withdrawing the Serbian 2nd Army to Kolubara and placed the 1st and 3rd armies north and west of Valjevo. Meanwhile, the Užice Army positioned to defend its namesake town. The Austro-Hungarians pursued the Serbs, hoping to capture Valjevo and its linking railroad. Skirmishes by the Serbian Army temporarily stopped Austro-Hungarians from taking the railroad, but it was obviously clear to Putnik that underestimation of the Austro-Hungarians, who were capable to bring their heavy artillery while wading through the muddy Serbian country roads. Shelling positions were placed on the Serbian side of the Drina and further ruined the Serbian Army, which lost even more casualties. Morale decreased amongst the Serbian troops and desertions began, who were weakened significantly due to deficiency in cold-weather clothing and ammunition and tired after the long retreat deep into the Serbian interior. Putnik noticed that his forces would need to reorganize if they were to provide sufficient resistance to the Austro-Hungarians. Valjevo had to be evacuated and the Serbian Army took up positions around Kolubara. The retreat towards the river was exhausting and long, with the Serbs being compelled to ruin many bridges and telephone lines so that they would be captured by Austro-Hungarians. The Serbian Army also left most of its heavy equipment to accelerate the withdrawal after Hungarians destroyed a battalion.

The Austro-Hungarians entered Valjevo on 10 December, causing excited public celebrations in Vienna. Emperor Franz Joseph praised Potiorek for seizing the town; cities across Austria-Hungary declared Potiorek an honorary citizen and Sarajevo even gave his name to a street.Valjevo's fall made the Austro-Hungarians believe that they were about to defeat Serbia and that the Serbian Army would become useless as a fighting force, but scorched earth tactics used by the Serbs during their retreat slowed the Austro-Hungarian advance. Although the Austro-Hungarians were correct in believing the Serbian Army was doomed, its defensive positions along the Kolubara had been prepared months before. Putnik's carefully timed retreat had guaranteed that Serbian Army casualties were less than if it faced and fought intense battles with the Austro-Hungarians. Moreover, the terrain of northwest Serbia was advantageous for defensive operations since the surroundings of the Kolubara did not support armies invading from the direction of Austria-Hungary. The river itself was cover by mountains. In late October, the Serbs had strengthened the Jeljak and Maljen mountain ranges to prepare for Austro-Hungarian offensives and the advantage over the Austro-Hungarians provided was the fact that it placed them in control of every road needed to assault Kragujevac. The Serbs also established defences to block the roads to eastern Serbia and Bulgarian attacks. The long chain of defences and the difficulty of the terrain which they faced left the Austro-Hungarians only the option of launching offensives across gruelling routes in the Serbian countryside with a virtual lack of communication. But, Austria-Hungary's initial victory paid off.

Suddenly, the Bulgarians struck the southern frontiers and took Macedonia after declaring war on 15 December. The Serbian Macedonian Army was encircled and cut off from supply. After several months of resistance, the 'Macedonian Pocket' surrendered in March 1914, just as losses in the western Ukraine weakened the Austro-Hungarians. Besides, the Serbian 1st Army was destroyed in action since an attempted counteroffensive was aborted and the Austro-Hungarians exploited the gaps formed with the disruption by a counteroffensive and this ruined the chances of Serbian survival as the nation was reduced to a small pocket between Pristina and Kralijevo afterwards. Defeat was coming, even when solely by Bulgarian hands.

 

[Panhomo]

Do you intend to continue this ever?

With the balkan theatre "finished" early on in favour of the central powers, I expect Italy will stay neutral or maybe join the winning side late.