How would ethnic and religious issues go within the Ottoman Empire without ww1? What would borders be? This can relate to a empire that stays united, survives but with losses, or gets completely partition. Your statement can be whatever one you think is the most likely to happen.
My guess is that the ottomans would eventually try to put in place population transfers and movement policies. This coming into full effect by the 20s. This causes the European powers to get upset at the ottomans due to Christian minorities being one of the heavily targeted groups. They use this as a excuse to divide up and partition the ottomans between themselves. Russia and Britain probably getting the biggest chucks of the empire but France, Germany, and maybe Italy getting some decent bits too. Britain takes much of Gulf regions and majority of Arab holdings like OTL but under official colonial rule and not mandates. Probably a system similar to the Indian one. Russia takes much of Anatolia. Russia might take some border lands and if they play things right maybe take Constantinople for themselves and rest of Thrace is given to Bulgaria or Greece while dividing up the rest of Anatolia into a few puppet kingdoms under Christian Orthodox and Russian monarchs. Two Greek kingdoms and one Armenian kingdom who are given very generous concessions of land within the former empire based on their claims. The Greek ones being favored over Armenian ones. Many of these new states have to depend on Russian or foreign assistance often times due to being outnumbered by the Turk or Muslim population within their own country. The Armenian nation maybe becomes the most stable and solidly majority government if Russia deports or “encourages” their Armenian population into the country. The Muslim and Turk populations get completely screwed over during the partition of the empire. They are either given a very downsized state or not one at all if Russia feels like they could get away with that.
What are your thoughts and what do you think would happen?