Ottoman Genocides, ethnic cleansing, borders, and population transfers without WW1

How would ethnic and religious issues go within the Ottoman Empire without ww1? What would borders be? This can relate to a empire that stays united, survives but with losses, or gets completely partition. Your statement can be whatever one you think is the most likely to happen.

My guess is that the ottomans would eventually try to put in place population transfers and movement policies. This coming into full effect by the 20s. This causes the European powers to get upset at the ottomans due to Christian minorities being one of the heavily targeted groups. They use this as a excuse to divide up and partition the ottomans between themselves. Russia and Britain probably getting the biggest chucks of the empire but France, Germany, and maybe Italy getting some decent bits too. Britain takes much of Gulf regions and majority of Arab holdings like OTL but under official colonial rule and not mandates. Probably a system similar to the Indian one. Russia takes much of Anatolia. Russia might take some border lands and if they play things right maybe take Constantinople for themselves and rest of Thrace is given to Bulgaria or Greece while dividing up the rest of Anatolia into a few puppet kingdoms under Christian Orthodox and Russian monarchs. Two Greek kingdoms and one Armenian kingdom who are given very generous concessions of land within the former empire based on their claims. The Greek ones being favored over Armenian ones. Many of these new states have to depend on Russian or foreign assistance often times due to being outnumbered by the Turk or Muslim population within their own country. The Armenian nation maybe becomes the most stable and solidly majority government if Russia deports or “encourages” their Armenian population into the country. The Muslim and Turk populations get completely screwed over during the partition of the empire. They are either given a very downsized state or not one at all if Russia feels like they could get away with that.

What are your thoughts and what do you think would happen?
 

Germaniac

Donor
I don't see that as realistic, but it could depend on who is in power at the Porte. I may be in the minority opinion, but without WW1 i don't see the Ottomans collapsing. It would take a European consensus and that is simply not going to happen in the eastern question.

No one, not even allies, wanted to see each other gain advantageous positions in the region and even a lesser statesman could play those intetests off each other for long enough to solidify power. Id argue the Ottoman fall rests on the military wing of the CUP and specifically Enver Pasha, without WW1 their power is not absolute.
 
There defiantly won't be any ottoman ethnic clinsing without ww1, it was the combination of the war and the general exotion it caused that allowed it to happen in the first place, whith out it any ottoman attempts would be shot down very quickly ( most likely literally which mite cause ww1 anyway).
 
Its not as if Ottoman massacres started with the Young Turk coup. The Hamidian massacres did a lot to diminish western European support for the Ottomans against Russia.

My assumption is that there would be low level persecution against the Greeks and Armenians anyways, especially as the Balkan Wars are not butterflied im this scenario.
 

Germaniac

Donor
Its not as if Ottoman massacres started with the Young Turk coup. The Hamidian massacres did a lot to diminish western European support for the Ottomans against Russia.

My assumption is that there would be low level persecution against the Greeks and Armenians anyways, especially as the Balkan Wars are not butterflied im this scenario.

I hate to nitpick... but its a stretch to call the military coup of 1913 a "Young Turk" coup. The young turks took power in 1908... it was the young military officers who launched a coup in 1913. The period between the resumption of the constitution and Envers coup saw little ethnic violence (unless you count the Balkan war) save for abdul hamids counter coup in 1909.

If you want to get technical there was another coup by another branch of the young turks in 1911 as well ... the 2nd constitution era is messy.
 
Its not as if Ottoman massacres started with the Young Turk coup. The Hamidian massacres did a lot to diminish western European support for the Ottomans against Russia.

My assumption is that there would be low level persecution against the Greeks and Armenians anyways, especially as the Balkan Wars are not butterflied im this scenario.
I think even low level persecution of Christians, Greeks, and Armenians could eventually lead to a war between the Ottomans and European powers looking for any excuse to start a war with them in hopes of gaining something out of it. Britain might want that oil under more direct control after it is discovered. Russia wants what it always try to get in the region for strategic reasons. Other powers just hop in to get a piece of the pie. Also without ww1 I think the still strong European powers will be looking around for new possible regions for imperial expansion with much of the world already under their control. That leaves the ottomans as a possible region of expansion for them.
 

Germaniac

Donor
So let's just say Enver remains in control...

Enver was definitely in favor of Turkification as opposed to the Ottomanism most of the Young Turks professed. I don't think you will see the ethnic cleansing in Armenia, especially since the reform package will be implemented https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Armenian_reform_package

The Greeks would be a different story. The Greek population of the Aegean area were very much radicalized (definite blame on both sides) and had actively sought to support Greece during the Balkan war going as far as hundreds joining the greek army and leaving anatolia in the weeks before the war broke out. I couldnt blame the Turks for being incensed. Many of the turks of the area were revent arrivals as refugees from Rumelia and Crete and had no sympathy for the greeks and will likely push for population exchanges... which the Greeks will not suppirt as they want the territory for themselves, so thing will get bad between them... however is the Greeks couldn't beat the Turks after WW1 then they are not beating the Ottomans without WW1
 
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