Ottoman Empire Sits Out WWI mark II

The Ottoman empire sits out WWI. They sell oil and agricultural products to both sides and slowly build up their army as they study the two sides and learn the lessons of modern war. They also industrialise to a small extent as their former suppliers concentrate on military demand. They are on good terms with the British and take over their positions in the Gulf as the British concentrate on the western front in France.
Russia is able to import through the Straits, but still falls because the Germans attack them instead of France after 1914. Germany figures that Russia with Straits access to French weapons and British money is too dangerous. They have plenty of space to fall back on in the west, so they send all their spare troops and munitions east instead of attacking in the west.
Building railroads behind them and treating the natives well they take Poland, Belarussia, the Baltics, and Finland, cutting Russia off from the northern ports by the end of 1915. They lose Belgium and the submarine ports. Austria and Bulgaria knock Serbia out of the war as in OTL, and defend against the Italians.
In 1916 they take the Ukraine and fall back to the prewar border in the west, retreating from the French. France and Britain have run out of overseas assets and the Americans are now loaning them money. The sub war is not important because the British aren't importing that much from America. There are no incidents where the Germans sink American ships without warning and there are no incidents where the Germans try to set up a war between Mexico and America.
In 1917 they take Moscow and fall back to the Rhine in Alsace and Lorraine, all the way back to the pre1871 borders, where they hold. They also have cut Russia off from the Black Sea ports. Russia is still getting supplies over the transiberian railroad. America is not worried about the Germans conquering western Europe and don't lend the British and French any money. The war slows down and progress pretty much ceases.
Russian radical groups holds election behind German lines during the armistice talks and elect a new and democratic government, which reconsitutes an army out of the German POW camps and invades Russia proper. The Tsar's army is out of money and supplies from Britain and France because they are out of money. Russia dumps it's empire while the civil war is going on as the Tsar's troops are busy defending Moscow from Trotsky's armies. The 'stans disintegrate into civil war and blood feuds as the soldiers come home to a power vaccum. The Tsar flees to Turkey.
In 1918 the Germans, the French, and even the British give up and sue for peace. Germany signs a treaty accepting French control of Alsace and Lorraine, British, Japanese, and Italian control of their former colonies, and independence for Poland, the Baltics, Finland, Belarussia, the Ukraine, etc. The war is over.
Turkey is more or less pulled into the 'stans as the violence spirals out of control. Russia is very blunt that they do not want to get involved. Britain is bankrupt and also not interested in controlling even Afghanistan itself, much less the rest of the place. Turkey is rich because of the war and the increased demand for oil, and in the mood to use it's army to do something. Not a good reason for war, but wars have started with worse ones.
They build their railroad too, almost all the way to the Hwang Ho outside Sinkiang. China isn't happy about it, but so what? They have Japanese sitting in the German concession in Shantung to worry about. Turkey certainly isn't interested in conquering China, or much else except reorganising and pacifying it's new empire. Oil, ore, agriproducts, and taxable citizens are now available. Arabia is proving to be rich in oil but Iran is still under British protection. For now.
 
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Where to start knocking?

1) The idea of Germany calmly accepting being pushed back out of Belgium, and then to lose the North Sea ports also, is not plausible. Germany is still a relatively new nation, and Hanover(site of the U-boat ports) has historic ties to the British royal family.

2) Likewise the German General Staff assuming they have room to yield in the west, or surrendering Alsace-Lorraine short of near-utter defeat.

3) Retreat to the Rhineland!?! :eek: So no more Saar coal, the perfect border defense for France, and much of German vital industry in artillery range of the Allies?

4) As for a 'Russia first' plicy, it would be contrary to all German strategy. They assumed that there was no chance of ever pushing far enough to knock Russia out of the war. Therefore the only hope was to take France out, and then score sufficient victories over Russia to end the war. Nor did they take for granted Ottoman alliance or even neutrality sympathetic to Germany.
 
Grimm Reaper said:
Where to start knocking?

1) The idea of Germany calmly accepting being pushed back out of Belgium, and then to lose the North Sea ports also, is not plausible. Germany is still a relatively new nation, and Hanover(site of the U-boat ports) has historic ties to the British royal family.

2) Likewise the German General Staff assuming they have room to yield in the west, or surrendering Alsace-Lorraine short of near-utter defeat.

3) Retreat to the Rhineland!?! :eek: So no more Saar coal, the perfect border defense for France, and much of German vital industry in artillery range of the Allies?

4) As for a 'Russia first' plicy, it would be contrary to all German strategy. They assumed that there was no chance of ever pushing far enough to knock Russia out of the war. Therefore the only hope was to take France out, and then score sufficient victories over Russia to end the war. Nor did they take for granted Ottoman alliance or even neutrality sympathetic to Germany.
Well, where to start?
1a. The Germans were only in Belgium on the way to Paris. They give that idea up and concentrate on attacking Moscow, instead of splitting their effort as in OTL. That's the POD, that they decide to attack Russia instead of France, unlike OTL where they attack Russia as well as France.
1b. The sub ports are the ones on the channel, not the ones on the North Sea. In WWI they were important because it let them choke off trade to London and the southern ports, forcing the trade to go through the ports on the east of Britain.
2. The German General Staff was smart in military terms. They are perfectly happy to let the British walk their troops up against machine guns if it will let them win the war in the east. Which is what Conrad wanted in the first place, if you recall.
3. They keep the Saar. Even by 1918 they are only back to their pre1871 borders. Only a few towns on the northern Rhine are in range of French artillary. Not industrially significant ones.
4. That is my POD, that the Germans decide to concentrate on the Russians because the Turks don't close the Straits. With the Russians able to field giant armies, and those armies supplied by the British and the French, the Germans have to knock the Russians out before the French and British can ramp up their munitions production to the point where the Russians can arm those giant armies.
 
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