Ottoman Empire in late CP victory

I've been wondering what would be the fate of the Ottoman Empire in late CP victory where France falls in 1917 and Britain is pretty much forced to make peace with Germany?
 
In this case the Ottomans might actually be able to negotiate from a view of strength. Only in Mesopotamia would they be having any problems at all depending on a 1917 scenario. Everywhere else, including in Mesopotamia, the only Ally to give them a real fight is the Russian Empire....
 
Would Britain be obliged to make peace with the Ottomans?


Unless the Germans are willing to make a separate peace from their allies, presumably the war (and in particular the u-boat war) goes on until she does. How long do seamen go on being torpedoed for the sake of a corner of Mesopotamia?
 

Esopo

Banned
They are going to disintegrate: the state is weakened from the wars and from the ethnic tensions already arisen.
 
They are going to disintegrate: the state is weakened from the wars and from the ethnic tensions already arisen.
No, actually not. Though the Ottoman state has been weakened by the war, it has not been weakened terminally. The Ottomans will likely make a few gains (places like Egypt are off the cards, but many of the Gulf states, Aden and Kars will be theirs) so that will placate the people to some degree. The Ottomans will probably attempt to abolish the capitulations (at least for the allies) in the peace treaty, so that will resolve a number of their economic problems, as will the arrival of oil in the economic picture.

As for ethnic tensions, they were overstated in the late Ottoman Empire. The real problem were religious ones, although with many of the Armenians dead, they may cease to be a problem. The Ottomans will likely allow the return of the Armenians to Eastern Anatolia at the end of the war, but at the most, no more than a few hundred thousand will be willing to go.

The "Arab Revolt" under Sharif Hussian, if it wasn't defeated in the war will be crushed within a matter of months, with no other fronts drawing Ottoman military resources, and few Arabs outside of the Hijaz (and indeed, few enough inside the cities of the Hijaz) are likely to mourn the defeat of Hussain, and as long as the Ottoman Empire continues to stress its position as the main independent Muslim state (as Egypt may have very well become independent) and caliphate, fellow Muslims will not present a huge problem to the Empire.

Overall, the future is fairly bright, although they have to deal with the temporary effects of war exhauston, and there are still economic problems (and maybe the Russian problem) on the horizon, but the Ottomans are in a better state to deal with.
 

Esopo

Banned
Overall, the future is fairly bright, although they have to deal with the temporary effects of war exhauston, and there are still economic problems (and maybe the Russian problem) on the horizon, but the Ottomans are in a better state to deal with.

Whitout even a change of government? italy, a single ethny and single religious state, had fascism even if winning.
 
The "Arab Revolt" under Sharif Hussian, if it wasn't defeated in the war will be crushed within a matter of months, with no other fronts drawing Ottoman military resources, and few Arabs outside of the Hijaz (and indeed, few enough inside the cities of the Hijaz) are likely to mourn the defeat of Hussain, and as long as the Ottoman Empire continues to stress its position as the main independent Muslim state (as Egypt may have very well become independent) and caliphate, fellow Muslims will not present a huge problem to the Empire.

Istr reading some years ago (possibly in the Times) that documents had been discovered showing that Hussein was in correspondence with Constantinople almost to the end of the war, keeping his options open to defect back to the Turkish side in the event of a CP victory.
 
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Whitout even a change of government? italy, a single ethny and single religious state, had fascism even if winning.


Enver Pasha may well fall at some point, but that's not at all the same thing as the Empire collapsing.

After all, a Turkey utterly defeated in war was still able to see off the Greeks and Armenians. A victorious one might well have been able to retain the Arab lands as well.
 
Whitout even a change of government? italy, a single ethny and single religious state, had fascism even if winning.
Italy had been (at least in the eyes of its nationalists) humiliated in the treaties, not getting what they had been promised by the allies before entering the war, despite the huge losses suffered by the Italians in the war, and the fact that the Italians had beaten Austria-Hungary pretty badly in the end. This unresolved irredentism, along with the ineffectual rule of the governments of liberal Italy created the conditions that persuaded the king to just embrace the fascists, rather then just shoot them all which wouldn't actually have been all too difficult.

The Ottoman Empire may very well have a change of government (It is not too unlikely for the 3 Pashas to lose their power) but there will not be a massive change in its governmental system. If anything, a general loss of power by these may encourage the Arabs to stay in the Empire, as pan-Turkic ideas such as those held by Enver were still not too popular in the upper circles of the empire. They could be replaced with a government a bit more founded in reality (and chastened by the huge losses of the war).
Istr reading some years ago (possibly in the Times) that documents had been discovered showing that Hussein was in correspondence wirth Constantinople almost to the end of the war, keeping his options open to defect back to the Turkish side in the event of a CP victory.
Now this is very interesting. I think I remember reading something similar, but my memory is fuzzy and I can't remember what the Turkish reaction would have been. On one hand, it would make restoring order to Arabia much easily, but on the other hand, he stabbed them in the back, and may do so again in the future.
Enver Pasha may well fall at some point, but that's not at all the same thing as the Empire collapsing.

After all, a Turkey utterly defeated in war was still able to see off the Greeks and Armenians. A victorious one might well have been able to retain the Arab lands as well.
It could do fairly easily, as long as they didn't undertake actions grossly offensive to the Arab population, which is highly unlikely. Indeed, most of their gains will be made in the Arab world in the event of a victory.
 
The Ottomans will likely make a few gains (places like Egypt are off the cards, but many of the Gulf states, Aden and Kars will be theirs)
Kars, probably, yes...
... buthe best that the Ottomans can realistically hope for from Britain, unless Germany is a LOT more insistent on their behalf than I think would realistically be plausible, is probably the status quo ante bellum. I suppose that Kuwait might switch allegiance in the case of a CP victory, but can't see any of the Gulf states that don't actually border the Ottomans as very likely to do so (because, apart from anything else, the Turks are unlikely to match the British subisidies to those states' rulers) and Aden -- with its key position at the mouth of the Red Sea, on the route between India and Suez -- would definitely be off the cards.
 
The most I see the Ottos getting is Cyprus, Kars, and the Sinai. Kuwait is possible, and maybe some Aegean islands, but that's about it.
 
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