Ottoman Empire after a Central Victory?

Discussion in 'Alternate History Discussion: After 1900' started by Roosevelt, Oct 8, 2019.

  1. Roosevelt Yankee In Dixie

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    Let's say the Central Powers prevail over the Entente (Americans stay out obviously, perhaps Italy does too to allow the CP to focus solely on France and Russia). What would become of the sick man of Europe? Would the empire collapse like it did iOTL or would it survive and perhaps even strengthen itself?
     
  2. CountDVB Dual Emperor of the Aztech and Maychanical Empires

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    It depends on the details, but if quickly enough, then the Ottoman Empire Can focus on Arabia, specifically the House Of Saud. Either the British are kicked out of there with their colonies or maybe the colonies remain.

    Regardless, if the Ottomans destroy the House Of Saud, then most of Arabia falls under them through their ally, the House Of Rashid. This presents the possibility of getting oil in the area. If they can reform and last until the 20s, they will reap huge amounts of money from the oil, especially since it would help the Germans.
     
  3. Gukpard hominem populist

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    The ottomans cannot get anything from the british since the most they can get is a victory against france and italy and a white peace with UK.

    However, Kuwait and Cyprus were in theory ottoman territory occupied by the british, maybe they can retreat from both without losing face. Regardless of that Egypt remains british. Lybia is getting to be a ottoman province or a puppet state and the ottomans gain concessions in the caucasus.
     
  4. Snowstalker ...

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    Why wouldn't Germany just throw Turkey under the bus in the peace deal? Germany gets continental hegemony (and its colonies back) while Britain takes the parts of the Levant that it had already seized by the end of 1917.
     
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  5. Oliver Lambkin Well-Known Member

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    A friendly Turkey provides a great source of oil for Germany.

    If the OE can eliminate the various Arabian dynasties (the Sauds and Rashids) and possibly occupy all of Arabia, they stand a good chance of continuing for a long time. The question is: what does Ataturk do here?
     
  6. CountDVB Dual Emperor of the Aztech and Maychanical Empires

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    The Rashids are the Ottomans’ Allies. Just have them join them through marriage.

    When they discover oil, Te Ottomans have the change to go right back up to great power
     
  7. 46566 Well-Known Member

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    I could see Italy joining the central powers at the last minute to try and get Nice and Savoy back. Could we see a pro CP backed Egypt and maybe give the Turks heading rights in the sinai peninsula to sit by a Egypt controlled suez canal. This could give the CP control over the eastern Mediterranean.
     
  8. MichaelWest Well-Known Member

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    If we only remove the USA, I think we should look at the war coming to a stalemate by end of 1916, that is when both sides experience the stalling of their economies. So look at a map of progress to this point, winter of 1916, spring 1917. And 1917 might be the last push for victory before the inevitable negotiated peace arrives. With some optimism 1916 is the biggest push year anticipating 1917 is the likely end. Generally I will speculate that Germany is looking victorious and feels in the commanding position, it should be tempted to go one big offensive to vanquish the French, I do not think it does but I think the Germans sit very high when they agree to armistice and are not backing down from getting expensively bribed to go back to pre-war balances.

    From that we should be able to get Russia to concede defeat and settle out. I believe Kerensky kept them in the war because the USA was coming, absent that I can believe there might not even be a PG, the Czar and leadership can seek peace, or at worst get sidelined as the PG types do it. That frees the CP to go offensive in 1917, worst case 1918, but it opens the door to the Entente seeking an armistice. If we get that, then the Ottomans are not on the carving table. Even if we do see a war more bitterly fought to an end, the Ottomans become a sideshow very quickly, the main event is in France. Against such a backdrop I am leery of assuming the British have seized much, even more so that the weak Arab "revolt" sustains, as soon as it looks like the Germans are back to winning, I think the Arab revolt collapses and that sucks the wind out of Britain's plans for the Middle East. France is going to concede anything to get back what it has lost already, Northern France is a big bargaining chip.

    At bottom I would not assume the Ottomans are broken, that the Empire is collapsing or that the CP shoves the Ottomans under the bus for peace. Indeed, Germany can push harder for terms and the Ottomans should benefit. While I might not swallow the Ottomans getting back Kuwait or Egypt, I can swallow that they are not forced to give up anything. The capitulations should die, the position of British and French influence should evaporate, the Ottomans come out in debt to Germany, bloodied and scared but intact. I do not factor in oil wealth until the 1940s, likely later still, unless Germany can invest in getting it developed. I think the Germans have a good idea how much oil lurks under Mesopotamia, they will not let it go, that is their Persia, what will make them able to shift to oil as did the UK/RN. I would write off the Saud family and wahhabism, but I would not discount that Islam will see pressure to radicalize, to resist the secularization I think is coming to the Ottomans. And the Arab population will be tempted to split from the Turkish who are influencing things in Constantinople, the fracture lines will be set, but this is also a world with other sharks swimming around, the British may not have won but they are not defeated, they can swallow anyone breaking away. For me the biggest change would be (1), no USA getting excited at intervening overseas and not translating economic power into geopolitical/military power, and (2) the lack of a revolutionary USSR sponsoring "independence" or terrorism, anti-Westernism, and destabilizing the colonial world as well as Middle East. Long term that might keep a lot more of this world tottering on rather unchanged on the surface. That gets us the Ottomans inside their borders mostly, mostly out from under the old indebtedness and poised to build something forward.
     
  9. Dorknought Well-Known Member

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    The Ottomans will owe Germany £250,000,000 - probably more. The war cost 6 times more than expected at about 3m Turkish lira per month. Part of the terms for the August 1914 Turko-German Alliance was a 5m lira loan (100m gold marks) at 6% interest from the Germans which was supplied in October 1914. Even this wasn't enough for the Turks to declare war and Souchon took it apon himself to provoke the Russians, with tacit approval of the War Minister, by having the navy attack the Russians at the end of the month to cement the alliance.

    The economic measures being imposed saw the resignation of the Turkish Finance Minister on November 2nd 1914. A further 80m gold marks were supplied in April 1915 by which stage the Turks had also run up 150m gold marks in credit with German arms manufacturers. In addition to money printing (causing inflation and debasing the lira) and 50m lira worth of requisitions, the Ottomans also borrowed a total of 235m lira from Germany (about 4 billion gold marks).

    The resilience of Turks was quite impressive. For GB the war doubled prices, France they tripled and Germany quadrupled before collapse. Turkish prices went up 18 fold. By 1918 GDP had declined 40% and the cost of living had risen by 2000% since 1914, impoverishing anyone on a fixed salary.

    The Germans bankrolled the Ottoman war effort through gold and credit. They will be wanting it paid back and with Turk debt running at 400-500% GDP the Turks will just be handing over resources to Germany for generations. In a German victory, Turkey would have been reduced to economic servitude to pay back these massive debts.
     
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  10. Richter von Manthofen Gnome Fighter Ace

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    On the "Military Side" the Absence of the US is indeed a sign that the CPs can win

    The Ottomans still hold their own in 1916 - and even in 1917 the losses are not that bad in the Palestine area. In Mesopotamia the Situation is more dire after the loss of Bagdad, but the Brits stopped for the rest of 1917.

    If we assume that it ran in 1917 basically as OTL (the US had basically no Military Impact until 1918) then the POD might lie in the decision of Germany to Focus on Italy first - supporting an Austrian Spring offensive in 1918. Thus kicking Italy out of the War. In the remainder of the year increasing numbers of A-H troops will show up on the Western Front, the Balkans and even in Palestina and Mesopotamia (not big numbers are needed but experienced Formations might tip the balance)

    I assume we get a summer/autumn offensive in France which result in France finally "Breaking" (Without US help I assume the CP will gain the upper Hand)

    So in the end of 1918 Britain will be the only remaining Entente member in the fight with the only remaining Frontline against the Ottomans (I assume the Balkans will fall towards the CP with all the changes)

    Indeed I think the Brits will have to decide - fight on or ask for terms

    Given the OTL dire Situation of the CPs I assume they will not press the war and accept basically a "White Peace"

    Which results in giving back Ottoman territory (and thus crussing both Saud and Hashemite ambitions.

    Given OTL Turkish Performance angainst the Greek I assume the Turks will stabilize fairly quick. I also assume they will get back the Dodekanese and Maybe even Libya . Maybe even some Greek Islands a sGreek like OTL joined the Entente in 1917...

    On the economic side I concede economic turmoil, but being the victor I assume the Entente Pays much of the bill.
     
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  11. Atterdag Well-Known Member

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    I remember reading that post Brest-Litovsk German-Ottoman relations were becoming increasingly strained over influence in the Caucasus. I could see Germany if not outright giving up on the Ottomans atleast threathening to do so.
     
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  12. Clandango Disestablishmentarianist

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    I presume Germany would still want the railroad going down to around Kuwait. Berlin to Baghdad was it? Might be some arguments can be made that Cyprus, Egypt, Sudan, and such would officially get handed over to the British and their puppets. If the Ottomans do end up giving up Oalestine or other areas then I imagine the British would need to deal with Arabs revolting over their lack of independence. Might work out for the Ottomans. We would need to look over things internationally to see if the British think they are getting the best out of the war. They had asked the Ottoman Sultan/Caliph to keep people from revolting (the Americans did the same) so they might want to keep that possibility around.
     
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  13. MichaelWest Well-Known Member

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    Europe as a whole, and the world to the extent it relies on European trade, will be impoverished, but recovery will begin. Repayment will be structured over a longer term, the Ottomans will be able to reduce some spending since they have no serious external threats, and Germany will be working to keep them floating, within 20 to 30 years the oil flow will generate a lot of cash, better if Germany invests in infrastructure to export oil rather than just ship it, a rail network would be strategically smart and spur development of the interior. Once the global economy recovers things should look rather bright. Thus I do not predict the OE becomes filthy rich like a fictional oil sheikdom but it will have wealth enough to really go places.
     
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  14. MichaelWest Well-Known Member

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    That is about where I got with a longer war, it really draws down the home front and makes everyone more disillusioned, but I think it is quite plausible. Once you get Russia out, France will be straining, Italy likely falls out next, and that should break France, leaving only the UK versus Germany, A-H is spent and the OE is not really a help. Germany cannot defeat Britain and Britain cannot win the war against Germany, there it ends with a deal. How bad a deal depends on just how far Germany gains ground. For the OE, will the UK sustain efforts there after the shift? If we are correct, once things turn for the worse the UK is putting more into Italy just to hang on and the rest into France, it should abandon efforts to conquer the OE, as I think it mostly did post-Baghdad. That gives the OE breathing room. France is not demanding anything and Britain is not really asking for stuff anymore, it can hold what it has, so I doubt Egypt, Sudan or Kuwait are handed back, Germany should insist on Mesopotamia as they know oil is there and it will be theirs here. The UK will focus on keeping Persia secure, so I see some meddling in what goes on in the Caucasus, Britain might simply opt to retain an expanded Aden (Yemen) and hold onto the straights, Oman and UAE at the coast to control the gulf, Palestine is symbolic but less vital, otherwise cut loose from the Middle East per se. And I doubt the British actually cared about the Arabs. Britain can return as a trade partner later, they tend to view the Ottomans as not worthy of worry. If I were to predict where the arguing occurs it will be over how close Germany gets to Persia here, that is really what concerns the UK, there is where things could stay ugly.

    Libya might get on the table but I might suspect Germany takes that as its payment, but I would not argue against the OE has it returned to punish Italy. I think it depends on how Italy bows out, if they must be crushed then they get wrung dry, if they bow out and beg forgiveness then Germany might not be bothered much, I think they have bigger fish to fry at the moment of decision. Same with Greece, the King is still related by marriage and a friend of Wilhelm, the Greeks can argue the French took them hostage. If Germany can gain influence there the Greeks might get off the hook. We saw very well how former enemies get light hands when they switch in time.

    I think there will be reparations of a sort but in a cold peace I doubt they are punishing. Only France can really be made to pay up, so Germany looks there to get something for the effort, Britain will not pay except to hand over the German colonies, maybe pay for lost ships and seized assets, but no out of pocket penalty. Russia might pay but I think it loses some dirt instead, and the not so beloved people there, so not too bad. When I get to a white peace I sort of think nobody gets much beyond what they came with and everyone leaves paying their own tab. So I do not actually see these as much of a "wank", rather it just gets us back to square one.
     
  15. Snowstalker ...

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    There were also, to my knowledge, quite a few Germans concerned about the ongoing Armenian Genocide (though others who supported it based on the line of Armenians being a Russian fifth column; Imperial Germany was of course no stranger to ethnic cleansing).
     
  16. Dorknought Well-Known Member

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    Countries with 4-5 times debt to gdp ratio owed to foreign countries don’t have rosy futures, especially ones that have just shown might is right. A CP victory would see Tarif walls going up, elimination of the pound as the worlds reserve currency and economic recovery a long way off. Oil will be cheap for decades, not helping the Turks very much.
     
  17. MichaelWest Well-Known Member

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    A tariff war paradigm is likely, but we saw that OTL, I do not see the Pound falling so far, the USA has not become quite as rich with no extra loans out, it has similar gold inflows maybe, maybe more if France is forced to pay in gold, it ended the war with an ample reserve. I do not see Germany strangled by being cut off from France or the Empire, it likely hastens to trade with Russia and the USA. The OE will be kept a float, the USA kept infusing cash into Germany in OTL to avoid the debts going under, Germany will keep the OE solvent. I doubt the economics are worse than OTL, and oil historically was about 1 oz. Gold to the barrel, or $20, relatively cheap, all the way to thec1970s.

    Food for thought though is add up all the oil produced in the OE borders, that is a lot. On volume alone they will be awash in cash.

    A CP victory doesn't seem to break the bank, Germany will want to trade again and it might recover faster if it opens Russia to trade and gets cheap oil from the OE. That makes it valuable enough to trade with again, so the return to global trade can begin as early as the 1940s, about when I think it should have barring the Mickey Mouse games around reparations.
     
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  18. MichaelWest Well-Known Member

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    Although I think an outright CP victory is doable, in most ATLs the end of the war is far more stalemated, I prefer to describe it as undefeated Germany, and although I do not think either A-H or the Ottomans are doomed, they are both worse for wear and badly damaged by the war. I would not argue this is some utopian alternative, the world will not be worse or better, different, and in many ways familiar. I do not know if Ottoman rule is worth saving but I think it could recover and has as many open doors as any other, the future of the entire Middle East will be different. No doubt the Armenians and the Greeks do not find this just, maybe the Arab populace finds it unfortunate, but Ottoman rule could better spread the oil wealth over the region, develop things regionally, and steer down a happier middle of developed, prosperous and engaged, a much brighter long term than how the British and French and later USA and Soviets helped dumpster fire the whole region, aided and abetted by the usual local idiots, crooks and potentates. If we bother, why not breath oxygen on the better embers and let the worst flicker out. That is always my bias. But I do like seeing where the potholes are.
     
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  19. Dorknought Well-Known Member

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    It is if you hand wavium the significant debt issues the CP had at the end of the war. Getting reparations out of GB would require a successful SeaLion and the Germans always banked on making everyone else pay. Thats why the war lasted as long as it did, no one could afford to pick up the cheque.
     
  20. MichaelWest Well-Known Member

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    I think German debt is misconstrued by the later implosion of the economy to tank Versailles. Mist of her debt was internally held by bonds or other means, that means repayment ploughs money into the economy rather than export it, something I think strangled the British recovery. The French had similar style debt and had a better recovery until the global economy broke. So long as Gernany can restrict outflows, that debt gets retired into domestic hands, reinvested, it should stimulate the economy, inflation will still be the concern, Germany has an overcooked economy with heat still on, aside from imported raw materials shortages and slow or no export markets her recovery is inflationary. The UK was overextended differently, she was exporting wealth and had sold off her dividend producing assets, her economy was not really built to export goods to generate wealth, she was addicted to cheap imports and lived off profits from the global finance and trade system. I am not expert enough to say but from what I read the CP is not simply going under, mistakes can still upend it but Germany is already on a floating currency divorced from Gold. If the UK cuts her off it might actually improve the recovery and insulate her from the British woes and if the UK jumps back into Gold to play for dominance again and that blows the world economy, Germany sidelined could miss the Depression in significant ways. So much the better if she can hold together the continent in trade, add Russia as a market economy and extend to the OE. That is a potential market zone as big as Donestic USA or bigger.