Ottoman and Romania stay neutral in great war what are effect ?

[NATO1949]

let say ottoman empire and Romania stay neutral in great war until 1917. ottoman stay neutral because British sink SMS Goeben in august 1914.Romania stay neutral because German and Austrian launch limited attack on Ukraine in may 1916 .that prevent brusilov offensive.

German loss was 350k for brusilov offensive and 200 k for Romanian offensive compared against 500k for battle of Somme.Austrian lost in brusilov offensive 750k and 100k for Romanian offensive . Romania supply million ton of grain to central power. that grain was stopped when Romania DOW Austria.that led to turnip winter in 1916

i think year 1915 will end broadly as same as OTL. Russian will have massive loss in great retreat in eastern front.Serbia will be defeated by Nov 1915.ottoman keep strait close and prevent supply reaching Russia.
British and french offensive in 1915 western front will end in failure as OTL

German will launch limited attack on Ukraine because they want Romania and ottoman to joint central power.as example of Bulgaria in fall 1915.

 

[FillyofDelphi]

Can the Ottomans keep the straits closed and remain neutral, though? At some point Britain and Russia are going to start deploying carrots and sticks in order to pry open the route in order to help supply the Russians with war material and allow the exports that would give her the hard capital to pay for it/collateralize their loans from GB and France. By late 1915 or early 1916, I imagine things are going to reach a crisis point and Constantinople is either going to have to open them,pick a side or have one picked for her by having the Brits and Ruskies sending warships to escort their merchant convoys and daring the Ottomans to try and stop them.

 

[patch_g]

It's not like the Ottomans have the navy to face down the Allies. Is it possible in 1915 to block the Dardanelles with block-ships?

 

[GDIS Pathe]

It's not like the Ottomans have the navy to face down the Allies. Is it possible in 1915 to block the Dardanelles with block-ships?

sure if you want to lobotomize the Ottoman economy and piss of Romania and Bulguria

 

[patch_g]

I was thinking more on the lines of in case the Allies start getting too pushy, tell them "If you try to bust through, we'll block the channel"

 

[FillyofDelphi]

I was thinking more on the lines of in case the Allies start getting too pushy, tell them "If you try to bust through, we'll block the channel"

"Then we'll bring in boats to dredge it open. Free of charge. How do you intend to stop the?"

Though, I think the most likely scenario is that the Ottomans agree to sit down and negotiate well before the subtle pokes with the stick reaches that point to negotiate as good a deal as they can for joining the Entente to hit Bulgaria from the rear or at least opening up the channel to commercial traffic. Acceptance of the withdrawal of the Capitulations, Russia renouncing its claims on Constantinople, renegotiation of debt terms, or other minor (to the Entente) economic-political concessions, or minor gains in the Balkans at Bulgarian expense

 

[Mikestone8]

It's not like the Ottomans have the navy to face down the Allies. Is it possible in 1915 to block the Dardanelles with block-ships?

It can certainly be mined as the Danish straits were.

 

[BlondieBC]

Can the Ottomans keep the straits closed and remain neutral, though? At some point Britain and Russia are going to start deploying carrots and sticks in order to pry open the route in order to help supply the Russians with war material and allow the exports that would give her the hard capital to pay for it/collateralize their loans from GB and France. By late 1915 or early 1916, I imagine things are going to reach a crisis point and Constantinople is either going to have to open them,pick a side or have one picked for her by having the Brits and Ruskies sending warships to escort their merchant convoys and daring the Ottomans to try and stop them.

Probably not. And it goes beyond that. Look at the date the British troops left India for Basra. The UK probably attacks the Ottomans for a bunch of reasons.

But to run with the thread's idea. The Ottomans do remain neutral and the straights stay closed (best case Germany). Then we see the troops used at Gallipoli used in Flanders. Germans probably lose the war a year faster or so.

 

[FillyofDelphi]

Probably not. And it goes beyond that. Look at the date the British troops left India for Basra. The UK probably attacks the Ottomans for a bunch of reasons.

But to run with the thread's idea. The Ottomans do remain neutral and the straights stay closed (best case Germany). Then we see the troops used at Gallipoli used in Flanders. Germans probably lose the war a year faster or so.

Of course the troops left for Basra (Which could always be cast as a deployment to Kuwait, The Trucial States, Egypt, Aden... anywhere in Britain's Arabian Penninsula sphere). The Turks had been making loud noises towards Germany for MONTHS now; a treaty of friendship, accepting the Goben and Breslau and tolerating their constant steaming back and forth in front of the British and Russian embassies, taking in large quantities of German gold and guns, withdrawing the Capitulations unilaterally, ect. You'd have to be deaf to see that it had become a matter of if, not when, the Ottomans were going to declare war, so forward-positioning makes perfect military sense. Move the POD back to August, though, and the Goben Breslau affair and its very likely the Turks at least delay their more controversial actions... and don't end up getting effectively forced into the war as an agressor by the "False flag" firings on Svestapol.

As for the troops at Gallipoli going into Flanders... I'm not entirely sure how much difference 5 divisions are going to make on scales there this early in the war, when Germany still has so much of an artillery advantage, the manpower to re-enforce and remanuver her lines in reaction to the enemy ect. Those divisions are also going to be getting ground down by the well-equip soldiers of Germany FAR faster than then by the Turks, especially if the commanders try to keep the Flanders front more active with a greater military presence there. Given Britain's penchant for constantly searching for an "elsewhere" to break the CP without charging directly into the meat grinder of the Western Front, I think there's a very real chance that we see the Salonika front open early in an effort to bail Serbia out from Bulgaria's recent entry: not only does this give them a real chance of saving the Serbian army as an organized fighting force by allowing it to retreat to a secure base in the Balkans, but would serve as a show of strength and warning to Romania and the OE as the Brits try to convince them to align to the Entente cause and knock the Bulgarians and Habsburgs in the rear.

 

[BlondieBC]

Of course the troops left for Basra (Which could always be cast as a deployment to Kuwait, The Trucial States, Egypt, Aden... anywhere in Britain's Arabian Penninsula sphere). The Turks had been making loud noises towards Germany for MONTHS now; a treaty of friendship, accepting the Goben and Breslau and tolerating their constant steaming back and forth in front of the British and Russian embassies, taking in large quantities of German gold and guns, withdrawing the Capitulations unilaterally, ect. You'd have to be deaf to see that it had become a matter of if, not when, the Ottomans were going to declare war, so forward-positioning makes perfect military sense. Move the POD back to August, though, and the Goben Breslau affair and its very likely the Turks at least delay their more controversial actions... and don't end up getting effectively forced into the war as an agressor by the "False flag" firings on Svestapol.

As for the troops at Gallipoli going into Flanders... I'm not entirely sure how much difference 5 divisions are going to make on scales there this early in the war, when Germany still has so much of an artillery advantage, the manpower to re-enforce and remanuver her lines in reaction to the enemy ect. Those divisions are also going to be getting ground down by the well-equip soldiers of Germany FAR faster than then by the Turks, especially if the commanders try to keep the Flanders front more active with a greater military presence there. Given Britain's penchant for constantly searching for an "elsewhere" to break the CP without charging directly into the meat grinder of the Western Front, I think there's a very real chance that we see the Salonika front open early in an effort to bail Serbia out from Bulgaria's recent entry: not only does this give them a real chance of saving the Serbian army as an organized fighting force by allowing it to retreat to a secure base in the Balkans, but would serve as a show of strength and warning to Romania and the OE as the Brits try to convince them to align to the Entente cause and knock the Bulgarians and Habsburgs in the rear.

It would eventually be 12 divisions at Gallipoli and a lot more than 12 divisions of supplies. As to the impact, the Germans had to transfer 330 battalions in a week or two to avoid their lines collapsing IOTL in late 1915. Kaiser had to personally order Hindenburg to release them and to go on the defensive. The one good chance before 1918 to win the war would have been in Flanders. 5-12 divisions, is probably enough. Say 10 divisions at 15 battalions each for the UK and France. These 100 plus battalions are probably enough since at this point and time the Germans have very near zero strategic reserve for the Heer.

Now I will concede the British may well try to open up another front. Salonika is possible, but I would not rule out Jutland since that is what prewar plans called for. And at this time in the war (1915), the Germans would have been able to do little besides block Jutland with a corp or maybe a reinforce corp. Then we would see the two fleets fight the war they were designed for. The Grand Fleet is at sea in case the HSF comes out. The British cruisers are trying to force German ports and rivers.

As to the Ottomans, it was not my first ATL that cause me to believe they will almost always join the war. It was a ATL support another writer where I went through the Ottoman war plans. The Ottoman war plans closed the straights very earlier in the mobilization process, and the closing was simply triggered by Russia entering the war. So once Russia mobilizes and the UK has not brought off the Ottomans, it becomes difficult to keep the Ottomans out of the war.

I have also Goben/Breslau type changes. I looked at writing an where these ships are unable to start the war. My choice would have been enough extra damage that these ships are not operation until 1915. This will turn into an Ottoman wank compared to OTL. Ottomans might win or lose the war, but they will do better. The main change is it avoids the fiasco that happened in what is OTL eastern Turkey. Roughly speaking without German actions, the flow of the war is likely.

• Russia mobilizes.
• Goben is sunk, Goben is damage and can't attack Russia, Goben officer just makes different decision.
• British have troops leave for Basra. Ottomans close straights. Not sure which happened first, but both will lead to war.
• Ottomans don't have forces to deal with Basra in 1914, so will stay on defensive down there.
• The Ottoman mobilization was the only defensive one. i.e. No plans to attack anyone. It was also a very slow mobilization. 90 days or more. Seems like straights close about 45 days in.
• By the time the Generals are given the release to attack and war is declared, the snows will be down. We will be waiting til May 1915 for Turks to launch an attack. IMO, the Ottomans will not declare war over the winter.
• UK will start applying pressure on the Ottomans to open straights. Ottomans will not open their capital to attack. At some point the British will attack, my guess is roughly the time window between OTL naval action near Gallipoli and OTL land action near Gallipoli. Nothing in this POD changes the rate British forces become operational.
• After the British start the war, the Ottomans will begin some offensive operations.

The net effect of this is interesting, but not in a way that makes an ATL people like to write. The Ottomans will be up a couple of corp in the east. The Ottomans will have several more months to import munitions via sea using German loans. The Russians likely have a half army less men fighting around Poland. The Ottomans are much better trained and supplied than OTL. The Ottomans probably avoid any losses ITTL besides the area around Basra. The Ottomans easily hold Arabia. Ottomans send a few more regiments into Persia and Afghanistan. Fascinating interplay post war. The A-H/German/Russian battles are interestingly different and probably in subtle ways since Russia is operation with about 1/2 less of an Army in this area.