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See above. In similar fashion to Muhammad Ali of Egypt, could an alternate power player ascend to prominence in the Ottoman Arab provinces. Perhaps the Palestinian strongmen Qasim al-Ahmad or Zahir al-Umar. An early Hashemite ascension? Basically, a situation where the Arab provinces become self-governing and autonomous from Turkic rule from the 1700s onwards.

Given my understanding of the contributions of the Arab provinces to the Ottoman economy (read: not much), I wouldn't expect too much in the way of butterflies on that front, at least.
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