OTL Election maps resources thread

Democracy in action! Another thing which New Zealand has on us.
This is highly unusual, most of the time most of the countryside is rock-solid for National. You see the same thing in reverse with places like South Auckland, so I don't really think "NZ has no safe seats" is an argument that really holds up for scrutiny.
 

Gust

Donor
2018 congressional districts. To my knowledge a map like this (though this is by no means perfect) hasn't really been done much.
I'll be printing this for election night. Be warned that the electoral districts for North Carolina (though similar) are outdated for 2020.
puTb0v8.png
 
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Finally, my first map. It's just the most recent California gubernatorial election, but I mapped it four different ways. I think it provides a better picture of the election than just one map does.

Thanks to @FriendlyGhost for help with the basemap. Data is from the Supplement to the Statement of Vote for November 2018 (I can provide a link if you want).

CA_18gub (Wiki small).png


EDIT: A link to the full-size map
 
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- If you did fix it, it isn't showing up in the map.
- I went through the entire map, and the only other... discrepancies I could find are in TX's 10th in Dallas and NY's 22nd in upstate, both of which should be Dem/blue.

Not only that, but it should be labeled 30. The actual 10th is the one between Houston and Austin.
 
Not only that, but it should be labeled 30. The actual 10th is the one between Houston and Austin.
You're both right and wrong. It isn't the 10th, but I was talking about what should actually be the 24th district, not the 30th.
Not sure how I missed this earlier, but Illinois should absolutely not be entirely blue. Outside of your Chicago inset, the only blue districts should be 2, 14, and 17
Too used to glossing over it on Presidential maps, perhaps?
 
Looks like you switched California's 1st and 2nd districts.

In fairness so did the California legislature when they did the last redistricting. :openedeyewink: (Seriously, I've always wondered why they randomly switched it so the 1st was the interior district and the 2nd the coastal one after over a century of it being the reverse?)
 
In fairness so did the California legislature when they did the last redistricting. :openedeyewink: (Seriously, I've always wondered why they randomly switched it so the 1st was the interior district and the 2nd the coastal one after over a century of it being the reverse?)

True, except it wasn't the legislature. We the voters kicked them out of the redistricting business just in time for the last census, thankfully.

As for the numbering, I have no idea either. With the State Senate, you have the staggering of elections between odd- and even-numbered districts, but I have no explanation for the numbering choices on the congressional and assembly maps. Seems to get more random the further south you go.
 
If you're like me, you've seen the PVI reported for various US states and congressional districts and wondered, "What about the counties? Or even the state legislative districts? Don't they know there are other things to measure the partisan lean of besides congressional districts and states??"

But since you're not exactly like me, you probably didn't go ahead and make PVI maps for four different divisions of the largest state by population, which I'm sure has been good for your sanity. Had I known what a pain in the ass all those little labels would be, I would've asked somebody else to do it for me :p

So without further ado, here's the current (for today) PVI of California's counties, congressional districts, state senate districts, and state assembly districts:

CA PVI (post-2016, small).png


Full-size image
 
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I hope this is OK to post here- here's the current Electoral College map as of 16:15 GMT. Obviously it's subject to change, but at the moment, assuming he wins NE-02 and Trump wins ME-02 (which is what as far as I gather is the expected result) Biden gets exactly 270 electoral votes to win. If this stays the case it'd be the smallest EC margin since 1876, and if both the districts I mentioned go Trump instead it's a hung EC for the first time since 1824!

Generated Map


And here's the current majority margin by state. (Annoyingly I can't find margins for Nebraska and Maine's districts, only the at-large popular vote.)

1604505542895.png


Some random analysis:
  • The polls were totally wrong again, apparently, and if Biden's not lucky we could be looking at the third wrong-winner presidential election in 20 years. Cheers, Electoral College!
  • I'd be remiss to analyse this election without mentioning The Mail-In Ballots (tm). Odds are they'll be strongly Democratic, though if they'll do much more than bolster the unusually anaemic Dem margins in Illinois and New York (which I suspect are so low right now either due to most of their Dem vote being mail-in this year, or because their voters just didn't turn out for Biden) and narrow the result in Pennsylvania remains to be seen.
  • Speaking of Pennsylvania, you wouldn't think it by looking but it's probably the big state to watch right now given only 64% of the vote has been counted there and most of that is apparently the on-the-day vote, not the mail-in ballots.
  • I would be curious to see if any other states change hands because of mail-in ballots, though- Michigan and Wisconsin already have, and I'm wondering if there's any substantial amount in Nevada, North Carolina or Georgia that would affect those states similarly? (Unlikely in the former because, as said, mail-in votes are largely pro-Dem and in the latter two because they're already up to over 90% of the vote counted.)
  • The result in Alaska is probably the least accurate on these maps since less than half the votes there have been counted.
  • Biden's victory in Arizona would make him the first Dem ever to win that state without winning the election if he loses in the EC in the end.
  • Probably the biggest surprise for me (as I had a feeling the polls were being very generous to Biden) is the big swing to the Dems in Minnesota- I suspected there might be an upset Trump win there due to Democratic turnout being depressed what with the Minneapolis police scandal, riots etc. but if anything it seems to have bolstered opposition to Trump there.
 
genusmap.php


And here's the Electoral College as of 16:15 GMT on Friday. Provisionally, Biden is now looking at 306 EVs, though counting is still ongoing in Arizona (which is probably going to end up being a plurality and might even flip to Trump), Georgia, Nevada and Pennsylvania, so they can't call the election for Biden yet. Supposedly North Carolina is still counting too, but it's been sat at 94% reported for over 2 days now so I'm pretty sure the mail-in vote counting is delayed or something.
 
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Some Massachusetts maps, which I am growing a sizable collection of (and should probably keep them somewhere...). These really highlight the progressivism of Franklin and Hampshire counties out west.

2020 MA Democratic Presidential Primary:

Biden: 33.4%
Sanders: 26.6%
Warren: 21.4%
Bloomberg: 11.7%

MA 2020 Democratic Presidential Primary.png


Ralph Nader reached over 6% of the vote in Massachusetts in the 2000 presidential election. His strongest areas are Dukes County, Hampshire County, and Franklin County (where he got 36% of the vote in the town of Wendell, within 10% of Gore).

MA 2000 Nader Strength.png
 
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Gust

Donor
The 1918 Danish Folketing election featured quite a weird electoral system. It was essentially a version of mixed MMP and PR. The country was divided into the regions of Copenhagen, the islands and Jylland. In Copenhagen all of its 24 seats was elected using party-list PR, while the rest of the country elected 93 MPs in redrawn single-member districts. After that, there were 20 regional levelling seats distributed to parties, taking into account the seats already won in that region. Finally, there were three national levelling seats to attempt to take into account the national results after having applied the other levelling seats.
This system was pretty flawed and was only used in this election; future elections would consist of PR elections in districts based on the counties.
1024px-Folketing1918.svg.png
 
Swing between the 1996 and 2020 presidential elections in Massachusetts. The margin was almost identical (33.38 vs 33.46)
 

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