OTL Election maps resources thread

Discussion in 'Alternate History Maps and Graphics' started by Thande, Sep 10, 2011.

  1. Alex Richards A mapper I, from near Dar-bai. Donor

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    That's quite the dramatic difference.
     
  2. Nanwe Left-Macronista

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    I think I can now report that my love/hate relationship with mapping Czechoslovakia may be coming to an end after discovering the most amazing database of Slovak electoral results at the municipal level dating back to the 1920 election.

    WIP: 1946 election. Finding the seat allocation is being tricky, but worst case scenario I can try and calculate it myself. Note that some of the urban districts in Bohemia need to be checked, the map is a WIP after all.

    [​IMG]
     
  3. Nanwe Left-Macronista

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    The Czechoslovak election of 1946 was one of the only two free elections held in the post-WWII period in what would become Soviet-occupied Europe. Unlike the Hungarian 1946 elections, where the Soviet Army remained in place and therefore played a role in influencing the electoral results (not that it did much good for the Hungarian Communists), Czechoslovakia had no foreign military presence to influence the outcome.

    However, the conditions of the vote were a bit authoritarian. In 1946, and following the Benes decrees, the over two million German-speakers and half a million Hungarian-speakers who had not proven their loyalty to Czechoslovakia in the 1935-1945 period were to be expelled from the country. Needless to say, they did not get a vote on that or a vote in the election for that matter. Only Czechs, Slovaks and other Slavs were allowed to vote. Furthermore, as a part of the Kosice Government Programme of 1945 [1], only the parties that belonged to the National Front were allowed to run in the election. Unlike later in the Communist era, the parties had strong differences of opinion on most topics. This meant that the Republican Party, the most important centre-right party of the interwar period was not allowed to compete, its voters divided between the People's Party (CSL) and the National Socialists (CSNS), the two most right-wing members of the coalition in the Czech lands.

    The most important party in the National Front, especially after the election, was the Communist Party of Czechoslovakia, which paradoxically only run in the Czech portion of the country. The Communists controlled the Interior Ministry, indirectly the Defence one and the ministries that were in charge of the resettlement of ethnic Czech and Slovaks in the former German-speaking areas of the Sudetenland. This explains their strength in those parts of the country. Its Slovak cousin, the Communist Party of Slovakia (KSS) was very weak, however. Slovakia had suffered the most from the Soviet offensive and the Soviets did not behave nor were welcomed as liberators, as it did happen in the Czech parts of the country. That combined with the ability of the Slovak Democratic Party to rally anti-Communists and autonomist against them meant that the KSS was only useful as a tool for the Communists to win extra cabinet seats.

    The largest of the non-communist parties was the Czechoslovak National Socialist Party (CSNS), the party of Benes and Masaryk, a sort of Fabian-esque bourgeois socialist, socially liberal party that was also quite nationalistic. The CSNS had been one of the most important parties of the interwar period and they become the second most-voted party, although far away from the Communists. The CSNS was particularly strong in the cities, coming first in Brno and Ostrava and nearly coming first in Prague itself. The party was the go-to option for most right-wing Czechs in Bohemia, as the territory lacked the active Catholicism that was a fundamental factor in voting for the Czechoslovak People's Party.

    The Czechoslovak People's Party (CSL), or the Populists was (and is) a Christian Democratic party (more in the Italian DC or French MRP vein than the German CDU) that benefitted from its strong roots in historically religious and rural Moravia, but also from an influx of former Republican voters. Because of this, it was the third largest party in parliament. The CSL's Slovak counterpart was the Freedom Party (SS), created in 1945 as a Christian democratic alternative to the Democratic Party that only achieved 3 seats, totally overshadowed by the Democrats.

    The Democratic Party (DS) was the electoral juggernaut of Slovak politics at this time. Created by the merger of the non-communist members of the Slovak National Council, the Slovak anti-fascist resistance, the party essentially brought together the two most important political tendencies of interwar Slovakia, Christian Democratic autonomism-to-nationalism (Hlinka's Slovak People's Party) and agrarianism. The anti-communist nature of the party, combined with its calls for regional autonomy (as opposed to the KSS' preference for rule from Prague) won the party an unexpectedly high amount of votes, 64%. The party did, however, contain numerous politicians with ties to the Tiso regime, which was very effectively exploited by the Communist-controlled police and newspapers to weaken it little by little, applying salami tactics.

    Next up was the Czechoslovak Social Democracy (CSSD). The Social Democrats had managed to be, during the interwar period, the most significant left-wing party in the country had been reduced to the status of being the smallest of the large parties of the National Front, with many of its voters departing for the Communists. To further that, the party was internally wrecked by divisions between the pro-Communist left-wing of the party (many times more radical than even the KSC) led by Zdenek Fierlinger [2], who served as Prime Minister between 1945 and until the election; and the party's anti-Communist right-wing, led by Vaclav Majer [3]. To top this all off, the party's Slovak branch, already weaker than the KSC in the interwar period, merged with the Communists during the war. Those few Social Democrats that refused to formed the Labour Party (SP), which would merge in 1947 with the Social Democrats to become the party's Slovak branch.

    As it turned out, 1946 was the last free election in the country until 1990. The Communists came out as the strongest by far party in terms of seats and votes, although they fell short of their goal of obtaining a majority of both, at least in the Czech portion of the country. They came closer to that number than any party since the independence of the country in 1918. The period between 1946 and 1947 was relatively calm, as the Constituent National Assembly slowly drafted a new constitution, the economy was nationalised (by 1948, 60% of all industry was state-owned) and relations between the parties were good. However, the Communists which controlled directly or indirectly the country's most vital ministries were turning the police into a Communist party branch, and same with the state security service. The military was controlled by a Communist-friendly General who served as Minister of Defence, and the party was very powerful in the trade union movement.

    By late 1947 and into 1948, as tensions in the coalition rose over the evident Communist attempts at appropriating the state security apparatus to their benefit, and the place of Czechoslovakia between the West and the Soviet Union combined with constitutional conflicts over the future status of Slovakia were breaking up the coalition.

    At the same time, as it turned out, Communist sympathisers in the police forces had begun a fear campaign against non-Communist politicians, sending mail bombs and so on. On February 1948, the cabinet voted a¡for firing from the police these 6 policemen, but the Communist minister (and premier) refused to carry out the order, causing a constitutional crisis. As a result, the non-Communist ministers resigned hoping that President Benes would ask Communist Premier Gottwald to resign and replace him with a non-Communist premier. The Communists, however, organised massive demonstrations and strikes that gathered over 2 million people. Combined with the Defence Minister's unwillingness to mobilise the Army against them - and the Communist sympathies of the police forces - forced Benes to allow Gottwald to form an all-Communist cabinet, essentially putting an end to the democratic experience and bringing forward a 41-year single-party regime.

    [​IMG]
    [1] An agreement between the Communist Parties, the People's Party, the National Socialists, the Social Democrats and the national Slovak resistance parties (Democratic Party & Freedom Party) and the Labour Party, a social democratic party created in Slovakia by the right-wing social democrats who refused to merge with the Slovak Communist Party in 1945. The Programme called for the expropriation of German- and Hungarian-owned industries and lands, to be nationalised and for the nationalisation of the 'commanding heights' of the economy, among other measures.
    [2] Known after 1948 as Doctor Quislinguer, Fierlinger had been the Czechoslovak Ambassador to Moscow during WWII and was rumoured to be an NKVD operative. He was amongst the strongest proponents of the merger between the Communists and the Social Democrats.
    [3] By late 1947, the anti-communists had come to dominate the party, replacing Fierlinger as party leader with Bohumil Lausman, a centrist social democrat (in terms of neither being on the right nor the left wing of the party). The left-wing Social Democrats, Fierlinger included, however, remained in the cabinet. And would play an important role in guaranteeing the Communist success in the 1948 coup.
     
    Last edited: Nov 3, 2018
  4. Alex Richards A mapper I, from near Dar-bai. Donor

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    The significant difference in results between Bohemia, Moravia and Slovakia pleases me for vague irrational reasons.
     
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  5. Thande a special man who knows these things Donor

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  6. Analytical Engine Monarchist Collectivist Federalist

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    So, psephologists, are your bodies ready for the Mid-Term results?
     
  7. Alex Richards A mapper I, from near Dar-bai. Donor

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    I mean we're not actually going to get the full results for a few months knowing the usual American habits on that front, but the provisional results are coming in overnight UK time anyway.
     
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  8. Harlow Some kinda socialist

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    [​IMG]

    One of the closest and most crowded primaries I've ever seen.

    Lori Trahan: 20.9%
    Daniel Koh: 20.7%
    Barbara L'Italien: 14.7%
    Juan Matis: 14.6%
    Rufus Gifford: 14.5%
    Alexandra Chandler: 5.5%

    Oh, and happy midterm day, everyone.
     
  9. Analytical Engine Monarchist Collectivist Federalist

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    So, this is what America has instead of cricket - something that takes forever to work out if anyone has actually won.
     
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  10. Utgard96 basically a load of twaddle about freedom

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    If the counting is still going on by New Year’s Day, they award half the seats to each party.
     
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  11. The British Empire Well-Known Member

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    [​IMG]

    According to CNN data. This is subject to change.
     
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  12. Reagent Cartography's Reactionary

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    Dave Wasserman at Cook Political Report has a really good Google Sheets file that will make mapping the 2018 House elections easier. He updates it as results come in, and indicates which totals are final.

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1WxDaxD5az6kdOjJncmGph37z0BPNhV1fNAH_g7IkpC0/edit#gid=0

    In addition to the 2018 House results, it also has the 2016 results by Congressional District and a column that shows the swing between 2016 and 2018 (as well as turnout as a % of 2016 votes).
     
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  13. Alex Richards A mapper I, from near Dar-bai. Donor

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    Have a Virginia map. Basemap originally by Chicxulub.

    Virginia large.png
     
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  14. Analytical Engine Monarchist Collectivist Federalist

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    How many of those counties have more than three men and a dog in them?
     
  15. Oryxslayer Electoral Calculator

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    Thats more a 'Great Plains' Thing. In all seriousness though, all the blood red counties in The west of the state are roughly equivalent to 2.5 Congressional districts, roughly the same as Fairfax County plus all the neighboring Independent cities like Arlington.
     
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  16. Reagent Cartography's Reactionary

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    Comparing the margins of Kander and McCaskill. The losing Democratic candidates in the 2016 and 2018 senate races in Missouri respectively.

    [​IMG]

    Red shows where McCaskill outran Kander. Blue shows where Kander outran McCaskill.

    Hawley campaigned hard in Southeast Missouri (seizing upon McCaskil's comment that “If we do our job in St. Louis County, you know, I can give up a few votes in the bootheel"). Kander's home base is the Kansas City area, so that probably explains the lack of swing to McCaskill we saw in other metro areas.

    Credit to @Chicxulub for the basemap
     
    Last edited: Nov 9, 2018
  17. Thande a special man who knows these things Donor

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  18. Reagent Cartography's Reactionary

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    From Jordan Tessler on Twitter, the 2018 Maryland Gubernatorial Election by Precinct (only on-the-day votes because Early Vote doesn't align with precincts):
    [​IMG]
     
  19. Thande a special man who knows these things Donor

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  20. Thande a special man who knows these things Donor

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    Oklahoma state house (unbelievably, this is actually fewer unopposed elections than a few years ago...)

    upload_2018-11-12_13-31-7.png
     
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