OTL Election maps resources thread

From a quick comparison with the latest election map, it looks like Harrow East is the only majority-BAME seat not held by Labour. Is there anything special about the seat that explains that result?

Other than its general Harrow-ness, the largest ethnic group is Indians (most often Hindu Gujaratis) who are more likely than other BAME groups to vote Conservative.
 

Thande

Donor
I find the idea of the Greens nearly gaining most of Oswestry plain hilarious - it hardly seems like their natural territory.
The only places that seem to have voted Green in the 2017 local elections are places that you would never expect to vote Green based on the usual metropolitan Green stereotypes, while the places you would expect to vote Green, and did in the past (like Norwich and Oxford) pretty much all fell to Labour.
 

VT45

Banned
I took the results of the Irish general election and added in the first preference vote share:
nOJlCt9.png
 

Thande

Donor
I took the results of the Irish general election and added in the first preference vote share:
nOJlCt9.png
Good work but as TB says you really need different colours for FF and SF.

Hilariously (given what it signifies in Northern Ireland) some Irish pollsters use orange for SF.
 
Good work but as TB says you really need different colours for FF and SF.

Hilariously (given what it signifies in Northern Ireland) some Irish pollsters use orange for SF.
I have never believed there is any possible way that's not deliberate on their part.
 

VT45

Banned
I mean I just used the Wikipedia colours. I can go back and pick a better one for SF. I ain’t using orange though. There’s an FG TD with my last name returned from the same constituency as Gerry Adams, and that’s enough for me to not wanna piss them off :p
 

Thande

Donor
I mean I just used the Wikipedia colours. I can go back and pick a better one for SF. I ain’t using orange though. There’s an FG TD with my last name returned from the same constituency as Gerry Adams, and that’s enough for me to not wanna piss them off :p
I am literally Martin McGuinness' cousin and you don't see me complaining :p

Yellow then?
 

It would be interesting to see how many candidates the Healy-Raes could get elected in Kerry if they put up more members of their family. It was fascinating looking at the transfers at the last election and seeing a massive 4,000 vote transfer from Michael to Danny getting them both across the line by the second count.
 
Here's the map of the "uninominal" districts in the Italian Senate election. The colours denote the coalitions, not individual parties. Note that in the two South Tyrolian districts the winning SVP candidates did not contest under the centre-left banner, hence why I coloured them black. Furthermore, Aosta Valley was won by the Aosta Valley coalition. The other colours seem quite self-explanatory.

I might make one for the Chamber districts later as well.

P.s. I should note counting hasn't finished yet, so this map may still change.

0lifIuA.png
 
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Thande

Donor
Nice work Oliver.

This one stemmed from a discussion earlier today with @AndyC and @iainbhx about some polling data for the London local elections and what it said about current trends among Labour and the Conservatives' shifting appeal, with the data split both by ethnicity (white vs all BAME/other) and social class (ABC1 / C2DE).

I realised we don't actually have a map for ethnicity by Westminster constituency analogous to the ones @Reagent has done for America, so I looked around and found that the 2011 census data by constituency is available - which is good - in a really stupid format not an easily editable spreadsheet - which is bad. I haven't yet found the class data by constituency, but if it exists I will map that as well.

Note that as this is census data, it reflects the whole population not just the electorate (and, of course, is now 7 years out of date...)

View attachment 372139

I eventually found the class data, although it only covers England and Wales. This is the NRS classification of social class grouped into ABC1 and C2DE, which is sometimes equated to middle and working class respectively - although, as @iainbhx has mentioned here a few times, this is really really questionable nowadays due to many of the metrics being very dated and not taking into account how the nature of employment has changed. Nonetheless, it is worth mapping because--as with the ethnicity map I did--this tends to be a chosen metric for UK pollsters to break down their data by group, for better or for worse.

I deliberately chose the blue/yellow colour scheme to see if there was correlation with the EU referendum - the answer is 'yes, but' as the broad pattern looks familiar, but the South is obviously far more middle-class than it was Remain, as is North Yorkshire and the rural bits of the Midlands. The curious concentration of ABC1s in Wimbledon and Richmond Park also doesn't correlate to the referendum result, which was strongly Remain there but not so much as it was in inner London. Obviously there are also plenty of other factors in the mix too. The closest correlation between ABC1/Remain and C2DE/Leave is seen in Wales, North East England, Cumbria and Cornwall.

Social class 2011.png
 
Good work but as TB says you really need different colours for FF and SF.

Hilariously (given what it signifies in Northern Ireland) some Irish pollsters use orange for SF.

Reminded of this one documentary I saw way back when I knew even less about Irish politics, and at one point the person being interviewed (who talked about FF during De Valera’s leadership) said ”Fianna Fail rode high in the polls on portraying themselves as being the Greenest of the Green of all parties!” and it took me a few seconds to realize that they were saying that FF were successfully capitalizing on Irish nationalism and patriotism, not that Ireland in the 1950s were ultraconcerned with having to answer Al Gore’s grandchildren when they asked ”Momie, Daddie, why didn’t you do anything to save the polar bears from drowning?”
 
Nice work Oliver.



I eventually found the class data, although it only covers England and Wales. This is the NRS classification of social class grouped into ABC1 and C2DE, which is sometimes equated to middle and working class respectively - although, as @iainbhx has mentioned here a few times, this is really really questionable nowadays due to many of the metrics being very dated and not taking into account how the nature of employment has changed. Nonetheless, it is worth mapping because--as with the ethnicity map I did--this tends to be a chosen metric for UK pollsters to break down their data by group, for better or for worse.

I deliberately chose the blue/yellow colour scheme to see if there was correlation with the EU referendum - the answer is 'yes, but' as the broad pattern looks familiar, but the South is obviously far more middle-class than it was Remain, as is North Yorkshire and the rural bits of the Midlands. The curious concentration of ABC1s in Wimbledon and Richmond Park also doesn't correlate to the referendum result, which was strongly Remain there but not so much as it was in inner London. Obviously there are also plenty of other factors in the mix too. The closest correlation between ABC1/Remain and C2DE/Leave is seen in Wales, North East England, Cumbria and Cornwall.

What seems fascinating to me is how many towns and cities with two constituencies now have the more C2DE seat being (more) Conservative and the more ABC1 seat being Labour. Just at a glance, this seems true of Norwich, Reading, Swindon, Milton Keynes, Newcastle (Central vs East), Barnsley, Cheltenham/Gloucester, Portsmouth, Southampton, Plymouth, and Lancaster/Morecambe. There are probably other examples too. While there are some areas that go the other way (Sunderland, Thanet and Oxford are the main ones) these seem much rarer.
 
I have never believed there is any possible way that's not deliberate on their part.

I was kind of amused a few months ago that in Singapore and Japan, the natural colour for left-wingery is blue, which only immediately made sense when I learned why: they considered themselves the parties of blue-collar workers.
 
I was kind of amused a few months ago that in Singapore and Japan, the natural colour for left-wingery is blue, which only immediately made sense when I learned why: they considered themselves the parties of blue-collar workers.
Are we sure there's no US influence involved?
 
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