(OTL) Charles V & Ferdinand I without a Habsburg Spain

[Imperator Hollandica]

Why don't you just switch the marriages of Charles and Ferdinand. So Ferdinand becomes the King of Spain (Castillia, Aragon and Napels) and have get Milan too. Have Charles marry Anne of Hungry. Once Charles is successful in beating the Ottomans, re-establish the Kingdom of Burgundy and perhaps he will retake the Swiss lands.

With Spain having no bounds with Burgundy (i.e. The Netherlands) and therefore no expensive wars the might stay in power for a bit longer than in our timeline. And if Charles and his son Phillip pays more attention to the needs/demands of the Burgundians then the "protestant" revolt might not just happen there. As for the remainder of Germany anything goes.... Perhaps a civil war and as a result you have the Empire split in a "Burgundy " catholic" part and an Austrian/Hungarian "protestant" part.

Even more fun when the Spanish agree to divide the Americas with Burgundy when Ferdinand takes the Spanish Crown.


If you decide the Habsburg not the have the Spanish Crown(s) why don't you have Ferdinand be elected as Polish King. And have him succeed in making that crown inheritable. A combined HRE Polish/Lithuanian Commonwealth would be a possible power base.

 

[Janprimus]

Just an idea: IOTL there was a short period when Wurttemberg was annexed to the Habsburg territories. Could Charles make Ferdinand the new Duke of Wurttemberg in order to give him a new territory and title?

House of Habsburg-Württemberg - now that's an interesting TL.

This could be the division during the reign of Philip the Fair with Philip in control of 'Burgundy', Charles in Hungary, Bohemia and the Austrian Lands and Ferdinand in Württemberg-Further Austria*/'Swabia'. (*= Further Austria (not Tyrol) is sometimes called Swabian Austria.)

 

[SavoyTruffle]

This could be the division during the reign of Philip the Fair with Philip in control of 'Burgundy', Charles in Hungary, Bohemia and the Austrian Lands and Ferdinand in Württemberg-Further Austria/'Swabia'.

And I assume the Burgundian inheritance passing to Charles upon his father's death?

The Imperial possessions of the Habsburgs could be subject to further division, or re-division, in the future.

 

[Mikestone8]

Do the Habsburgs remain Catholic?

If there is no likelihood of inheriting the Spanish crown, they may as well go along with the reformers. OTL they and about half of the Wittels bachs were about the only major dynasties to stick with the old Church.

 

[TyranicusMaximus]

Do the Habsburgs remain Catholic?

If there is no likelihood of inheriting the Spanish crown, they may as well go along with the reformers. OTL they and about half of the Wittels bachs were about the only major dynasties to stick with the old Church.

Protestant Wank anyone

 

[SavoyTruffle]

Do the Habsburgs remain Catholic?

If there is no likelihood of inheriting the Spanish crown, they may as well go along with the reformers. OTL they and about half of the Wittels bachs were about the only major dynasties to stick with the old Church.

Protestant Wank anyone

Possible, but I'm thinking that they could go Lutheran like most German princes, which might not go well with the Hungarian nobles if they go partly Calvinist as OTL.

 

[Gonzaga]

Possible, but I'm thinking that they could go Lutheran like most German princes, which might not go well with the Hungarian nobles if they go partly Calvinist as OTL.

I wonder how Philip would deal with Luther if he is still the Emperor at the time.

Actually, is interesting how short Philip's life was short compared with his father and grandfather. Frederick III was 78 when he died, and Maximilian I was almost 60. If Philip lives at least as much as his father then he would die in the late 1530's, and so he would be the Emperor when the religious troubles would start.

 

[Janprimus]

And I assume the Burgundian inheritance passing to Charles upon his father's death?

The Imperial possessions of the Habsburgs could be subject to further division, or re-division, in the future.

The main line will certainly keep control over Hungary, Bohemia, Austria (proper) and 'Burgundy', but Styria, Carinthia, Carniola and Tyrol could pass to younger sons.

Religion will be interesting, certainly if Ferdinand manages to keep Württemberg and the other Swabian possessions, a more personal rule might be better than indirect rule by lieutenants. Potentially Southern Germany could be returned to Catholicism, OTOH even the Habsburgs IOTL knew that reforms were needed; maybe some sort of 'Gallicanism'for the (Catholic) church in the empire (more independent from Rome). If they turn protestant then Lutheranism or some sort of imperial variant on 'Anglicanism' seem the most likely alternatives.

The reign of Philip will be another important point, firstly the election of the king of the Romans will occur earlier with the older Philip surviving. In fact this could even give him a better position at the election. IOTL the opinion of him was better in 'Burgundy' than in Castille. He now will at least be seen as a native monarch.
Another interesting development will be the influence of thinkers as Erasmus.

 

[Janprimus]

Especially religion will be interesting. There already was the influence of thinkers like Erasmus, the Burgundian Habsburgs even supported reform in monasteries and recognized some issue of the church needed to addressed. IOTL the very powerful Charles V preferred a general council and not an imperial one to address the grievances in the empire. The idea of a 'imperial church council' became increasingly urgent, especially when it took so long for a general church council to be organized.
With a weaker position and less realms to take in consideration, the Habsburgs are very likely to go along with an imperial church council with the idea to reform the church from within. The question will be how much they're allowed to do. If there's a Gallicanistic solution, they might get somewhere; however if it turns into a conflict between the empire and the papacy, this could result in some sort of German Catholic Church independent from Rome (but in theory re-unification could happen in the future).
I suspect that the Habsburg view could be like that of Henry VIII, who was like the head of the English Catholic church and didn't approve of all types of protestantism. The Habsburgs in general saw themselves as good catholics, but a conflict with the papacy could lead to troubles with Rome; so politics could lead them to be perceived as protestant, but I don't see them turning into radical protestant. They IMHO are more likely to reform the Catholic church in the empire (but not too radical), which could lead to problems with Rome; but OTOH if these issues and grievances are addressed early enough then these might not have become too radical yet.

 

[Janprimus]

No further ideas about religion?

The next concern will be the Italian and the Ottoman wars.

There position in Italy isn't stronger than IOTL and Maximilian didn't have too much success in Italy. OTOH a Sforza Milan or maybe they even have to accept a compromise, where a younger son of the king of France is made the duke of Milan.
The latter would be set back and neither sides (Valois and Habsburg) would be too happy, but all other sides could pressure them to accept.

OTOH a Trastamara-Habsburg alliance could still defeat France and restore the Sforza dukes, a later annexation will be much harder. In fact alliances will start to shift, when one side is winning; especially the pope will find a Northern Italy dominated by France or the Habsburgs equally unappealing (even though the Habsburgs are less powerful now).
Besides the Habsburg main focus will be the Ottomans.

The Ottomans were the great power on the Balkan and Hungary had managed to weaken itself. IOTL Hungary-Bohemia and the Habsburgs, also became very close and with the Spanish inheritance this became an even larger threat.

If somehow Louis II never becomes king of Hungary and Bohemia, but instead Charles and Anne are married quite early (IOTL Louis also married early) and succeed Vladislaus right away. In fact IOTL 1515 the double wedding was already arranged (formal treaty for these marriages) only a wedding ceremony was needed to finalizde them. This could ensure earlier and more Habsburg support. As a consequence of the marital arrangements, Charles will spend the last years of his education in Austria, under the supervision of Maximilian, but also in Hungary and Bohemia. Maybe Vladislaus will eventually even adopt him, his son in law, as his heir, if something happens to OTL Louis II or there is no Louis II now. This would make an eventual election much easier. Hungary might be in a better shape with an occasional conflict with the Ottomans. A situation without territorial loss, but under constant Ottoman threat and no chance of any expansion in the Balkan region would however be the general idea.

Furthermore as a part of these arrangements, Maximilian and Philip promise to give Charles the control over the Austrian Lands to improve their position in Hungary and Bohemia, for similar reasons as IOTL Ferdinand was granted the Austrian Lands. However at the same time it will be promised to Ferdinand that he will get lands and title.

The situation in Württemberg is unlikely to change, the OTL duke had a lavish life style, so he had a lot of debt; and he had made many enemies. When duke Ulrich of Württemberg was driven away, they offered to sell it to the Habsburg emperor in 1519.
Now I can see Philip the Fair buying it and granting it to his son Ferdinand and he (Philip) could also persuade Charles to give up the Swabian Further Austria to his brother (or he has already promised to do so by (a family) treaty (when he gets control over the Austrian Lands) maybe originally including Tyrol, but with Ferdinand getting Württemberg, he's allowed to keep Tyrol). Furthermore it will be very possible that Holy Roman Emperor (elect) Philip recreates the duke of Swabia title for his son.
So archduke Ferdinand will be duke of Swabia, Württemberg and Teck, he will also be in control of a strategic region, which connects the Austrian and the Burgunian lands (with a similar strategic importance as the duchy of Milan IOTL, in fact it later was questioned, why they let Württemberg go that easily IOTL).

 

[SavoyTruffle]

Don't forget that with Ferdinand as duke of Swabia the Habsburgs have effective control of three Imperial Circles - Burgundian, Swabian, and Austrian.

Their position in western and southern Germany is thus powerful.

 

[Janprimus]

Now there still is one obvious question left, which survival would be the most interesting Juan of Aragon (Asturias) or Miguel da Paz?

My guess is that the smoothest succession in Castille and Aragon will be with the survival of Juan. Furthermore Juan was married with the sister of Philip the Fair of Habsburg, Margaret, who due to her treatment at the French court became very anti-French. IOTL after she was widowed for a second time, she was made governor of the Habsburg Netherlands in 1507 and played a large part in the upbringing of the children of Philip the Fair (died 1506).

Miguel would add Portugal and the Portuguese colonies, which could make it the most important European great power; but this position will be envied, so this will affect the foreign politics of the other European Great Powers.
Furthermore since Miguel is rather young, all three crowns will want to have a say in his education and some potential other internal problems.

No matter which course the Iberian crowns won't be the only colonial powers.

 

[Gonzaga]

Now there still is one obvious question left, which survival would be the most interesting Juan of Aragon (Asturias) or Miguel da Paz?

My guess is that the smoothest succession in Castille and Aragon will be with the survival of Juan.

Miguel would add Portugal and the Portuguese colonies, which could make it the most important European great power; but this position will be envied, so this will affect the foreign politics of the other European Great Powers.
Furthermore since Miguel is rather young, all three crowns will want to have a say in his education and some potential other internal problems.

No matter which course the Iberian crowns won't be the only colonial powers.

There is already two TLs here dealing with the survival of Miguel da Paz, so I'm for Juan de Aragon.

 

[SavoyTruffle]

Now there still is one obvious question left, which survival would be the most interesting Juan of Aragon (Asturias) or Miguel da Paz?

My guess is that the smoothest succession in Castille and Aragon will be with the survival of Juan. Furthermore Juan was married with the sister of Philip the Fair of Habsburg, Margaret, who due to her treatment at the French court became very anti-French. IOTL after she was widowed for a second time, she was made governor of the Habsburg Netherlands in 1507 and played a large part in the upbringing of the children of Philip the Fair (died 1506).

That scenario also ensures Portugal will remain independent, but I have an itching idea to have both Juan and Miguel live longer. That would distract me from my TL though.

Miguel would add Portugal and the Portuguese colonies, which could make it the most important European great power; but this position will be envied, so this will affect the foreign politics of the other European Great Powers.
Furthermore since Miguel is rather young, all three crowns will want to have a say in his education and some potential other internal problems.

No matter which course the Iberian crowns won't be the only colonial powers.

True, in fact I have Ferdinand II's later life shaped by the survival of his grandson, and the Columbian race will be more heated TTL...

 

[Janprimus]

Then it's Juan of Aragon, prince of Asturias and Girona, which will also make archduchess Margaret a luckier princess; and her influence will also be very important for the Trastamara-Habsburg alliance to contain France, since she will influence her husband and her children.

In fact IOTL it was rumored, that Juan died, because he loved his wife too much.
Which probably won't mean, that he wouldn't have a mistress (-es) or bastards, but he will be more discrete out than his brother in law Philip; furthermore Margaret upbringing and experiences at the Burgundian Habsburg and French court might have been a better than the one Joanna had in 'Spain' in that regard. Philip was a philanderer in an environment, the Burgundian court, which even encouraged it, but Joanna OTOH could have been a bit naive about a royal marriage.

@Savoytruffle I hope you don't mind, if I use my idea about Swabia, Württemberg and Teck? (Although truth be told I'll use it anyway or not.)

 

[Valdemar II]

Possible, but I'm thinking that they could go Lutheran like most German princes, which might not go well with the Hungarian nobles if they go partly Calvinist as OTL.

Remember that Calvinism was a relative latecomer, for years Lutheranism was spreading in the areas which later became Calvinist. So if the Habsburg goes Lutheran much of the Hungarian nobility will likely follow them.

 

[Valdemar II]

No further ideas about religion?

I personal think that the Habsburg, if they decided to reform Catholism in Germany, would be forced to embrace Luther, because if not they will be a caught between the Catholic hard place and the Protestant rock. But with Habsburg support Lutheranism will likely look a lot different, especially in structure. We will likely see Lutheranism keep archbishoprics, which will help streamline the faith in Germany. Beside that we will likely see Erasmus gaining enourmous influence on the faith.

The situation in Württemberg is unlikely to change, the OTL duke had a lavish life style, so he had a lot of debt; and he had made many enemies. When duke Ulrich of Württemberg was driven away, they offered to sell it to the Habsburg emperor in 1519.
Now I can see Philip the Fair buying it and granting it to his son Ferdinand and he (Philip) could also persuade Charles to give up the Swabian Further Austria to his brother (or he has already promised to do so by (a family) treaty (when he gets control over the Austrian Lands) maybe originally including Tyrol, but with Ferdinand getting Württemberg, he's allowed to keep Tyrol). Furthermore it will be very possible that Holy Roman Emperor (elect) Philip recreates the duke of Swabia title for his son.
So archduke Ferdinand will be duke of Swabia, Württemberg and Teck, he will also be in control of a strategic region, which connects the Austrian and the Burgunian lands (with a similar strategic importance as the duchy of Milan IOTL, in fact it later was questioned, why they let Württemberg go that easily IOTL).

POersonal I think he will still get Tyrol, especially if Philip survive long enough to see the Ferdinands many children being born*

*even with a different marriage, I see no reason for that to not happen, Ferdinand was obvious fertile.

 

[Mikestone8]

There could be some knock-on effects for English history.

Had the Habsburgs been Lutheran, a daughter of Charles V might have married Henry VIII instead of Anne of Cleves. If so, they probably stay married, since so important a Princess would be politically had to jettison, and Henry dies having had on four instead of six.

OTOH, if they stay Catholic, a son of Charles (or of Ferdinand) may marry Mary Queen of Scots. Elizabeth I would probably accept it. She has issues with Spain, but not particularly with Austria. So in 1603 a Habsburg is King of England.

 

[SavoyTruffle]

@Savoytruffle I hope you don't mind, if I use my idea about Swabia, Württemberg and Teck? (Although truth be told I'll use it anyway or not.)

Sure you can; I already used it anyway

 

[Gonzaga]

OTOH, if they stay Catholic, a son of Charles (or of Ferdinand) may marry Mary Queen of Scots. Elizabeth I would probably accept it. She has issues with Spain, but not particularly with Austria. So in 1603 a Habsburg is King of England.

She "had issues" with Spain caused mostly by the Spanish domination of Netherlands, that wouldn't exist ITTL.