Other than the Japanese, which colonial power is the most likely to take Formosa in the 19th century

Which colonial power is the most likely to take Formosa in the 19th century


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Uh, the Dutch? Who sorta had it as I recall?
In the 19th century? Absolutely not. They might be able to keep it with a POD in the17th century, but in the 19th century the Netherlands was a mere shell of what it used to be.It was now a poor backwards country that would not be able to project its power so far from its core (which in this case be the Dutch East Indies.

The same is more or less true about Spain and Portugal (although I wouldn't call them backwards, since I don't know enough about them). I would say that France, Britain and the USA would be able to take taiwan. Germany might be, if they realy wanted to, noone else cared and if they got some help.
 
I don't think it's likely that anyone gets it if the Japanese don't take it. Probably remains part of China. If I had to choose, though, I'd say Germany - Britain already had Hong Kong, and France already had Indochina. Portugal had Macau and Spain had the Philippines (for what those two are worth); butterfly effect implies the Spanish-American War either doesn't happen or goes rather differently (since if Germany has Taiwan, it's unlikely they'll nose around in the Philippines, which will have ramifications no matter how small a role they played in OTL).

In saying that, I see Taiwan as being a bit like Asia's Congo. None of the great powers will want any of the other great powers to have it, resulting in a sort of political stalemate. Only in this case it doesn't go to neutral Belgium - it remains with China.
 
In saying that, I see Taiwan as being a bit like Asia's Congo. None of the great powers will want any of the other great powers to have it, resulting in a sort of political stalemate. Only in this case it doesn't go to neutral Belgium - it remains with China.

Or you could have the Great Powers award it to one of the lesser countries for that reason, like the Dutch and their claim on it.
 
Or you could have the Great Powers award it to one of the lesser countries for that reason, like the Dutch and their claim on it.

What about Italy? I always thought that Italy had potential as a compromise choice in colonial what-ifs. Austria could be another, but they would always be distracted by internal issues.

Could France take it after the Sino-French War?

The French were more interested in Hainan I think.
 
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At the time of the triple intervention, the Kaiser was angling for it. It would easily work- Korea to Russia, Formosa to Germany. They would need to give France something either in Asia or in Africa
 
By that date the French would probably be your best bet, but that would require France to be far more successful in prosecuting the Sino-French War and a far more solid commitment on the part of France proper to the Far East, to the point where they are able to secure both Tonkin and Formosa. The problem with that though is I am not sure if Perry's government, despite their aims, were willing to make the kind of military commitment that would allowed for that degree of success, and the Formosa theater would always be secondary to the Tonkin one in terms of importance.
 
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