Other countries that could experience a Yugoslavia-style collapse?

Nick P

Donor
Try as I might I can't see Britain going this way even in the event of the hardest of hard Brexits. Riots on the streets, maybe some shooting, but not all out war.
 
What other countries could experience a Yugoslavia-style collapse, with ethnic cleansings, UN/NATO/some other organization involvement. ends up balkanizing etc.?
Well you need a country that's basically an unnatural agglomeration of states that dislike each other. There are two obvious example, the United States and China.

Belgium. Free the Walloons!
That's more of a split in to (à la Czechoslovakia) rather than Yugoslavia. But Belgium is certainly an unnatural agglomeration...

China if they fail again un one of their periódic warring states episode
Quite probably give the current stressors.
 
An independent Tatarstan would become a eurasian Lesotho completely surrounded by a larger neighbor, but the republic is large and developed enough to be a viable economic unit. From Stratfor:


Potential ethnic tensions would be the republic's largest problem as an independent state. Wikipedia lists demographic estimates for Russia's autonomous republics up to 2010, and Tatarstan seem to be only 53% Tatar and around 40% ethnic Russian. An independent Tatarstan would be better off economically now, but it would face the Estonian/Ukrainian problem of a potential oppressed Russian minority (TM) that Russia needs to "protect"/weaponize in a Ukraine-style hybrid conflict.

Putin's support for small-country nationalism/separatism in Abkhazia and South Ossetia has set a precedent that he might come to regret.
Or simply the Russians, who form a majority in many districts would refuse to secede. And considering that Tatarstan looks like this, it would be difficult to build a viable state. Especially since the capital Kazan has a slight Russian pl

Also Russia does not need to resort to any military measures at all. They just need to close the borders to Tatarstan and deny Russian airspace to planes going to/from there. Both measures are perfectly legal under international law and together would doom Tatarstan immediately.
 
Or simply the Russians, who form a majority in many districts would refuse to secede. And considering that Tatarstan looks like this, it would be difficult to build a viable state. Especially since the capital Kazan has a slight Russian pl

Also Russia does not need to resort to any military measures at all. They just need to close the borders to Tatarstan and deny Russian airspace to planes going to/from there. Both measures are perfectly legal under international law and together would doom Tatarstan immediately.
Agreed. Tatarstan is one of the republics within the Russian Federation to have the titular nationality in majority, but it is also one o the hardest to make independent without a total collapse of Russia itself.
 

Bison

Banned
The Soviet Union certainly couldve experiened it, given a Milosevic-type character in Russia.
 

Kaze

Banned
Any country on this planet could in theory could collapse. All it takes is the right / wrong circumstances. There always discontent people even within homogeneous nations, economic factors (there is always some poor person thinking that it might be nice to hang the rich fat-cat by the nearest lamp-post / or the next stock market crash), leadership incompetence, and racial factors that could do so.
 
Ethnic Russians are simply too dominant demographically for a Yugoslavia type situation to occur in the Russian Federation. You'd need splinter states to emerge on ideological and not ethnic lines.
 
My list:
  • Russia/USSR
  • Austria-Hungary had it endured
  • Ottoman Empire had it endured
  • Belgium
  • Ethiopia
  • Lebanon
  • South Africa
  • Nigeria
  • Sudan
  • Zaire/D. R. Congo
  • Namibia
  • Uganda
  • Spain
  • Canada
  • India
  • China
  • Pakistan
  • iran
  • Syria
  • Iraq

Re: Nigeria

I see the following possible successor states:
Yorubaland
Edoland
Ijawland
Igboland
A Tiv state
A Nupe state
Kanuri state in Borno
And possible multiple Hausa states or just one
 
Ethiopia could experience a Yugoslav-style collapse - just have Siad Barre's Somalia successfully annex the Ogaden and this causes Ethiopia to collapse into different ethnic-based states as another communist party like the Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Party or All-Ethiopia Socialist Movement is installed. Another way could be if Meles Zenawi's ethnic federalism fails and sees the various ethnic-based rebel organizations spearhead the ethnic regions breaking away from the new Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia in the 90s.
 
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