OT: CSA and Sonara and Chihauhua from Mexico

Having read Turtledove's TL-191 several time one of interesting aspect of that story is the CSA's purchase of Sonara and Chihauhua.
Lets stretch this. What if as the Peace terms of Mexican US War of 1846-1848, the US gain control of these states from the Mexican Government.
Then 14 years later the US Civil War breaks out. Is the Federal Government able to hold here? Or will these states swing for the CSA as Texas does?
 
Remember, Texas was a slave state while Sonora & Chihuahua were not.

So lets imagine three different situations.

One) Sonora & Chihuahua stay loyal to the federal Government and Lincoln deploy troops to these States and is able put the pressure on the CSA earlier now then US have troops on all sides of the CSA maybe provoking an earlier desive battle with the CSA ending the war. This requires off cause a very week Mexico which would allow the US to station troops in the three remaining provinces in North Mexico. Blocking the CSA's Southern Border.
two) Confederate Diplomate/Agents are able to provoke Mexico into a second US Mexican War. Where they provoke Mexican Nationalists to attack US Federal troops stationed in Sonora & Chihuahua, given Lincoln a two front war.
three) The CSA togehter with Mexico attack Sonora & Chihuahua forcing the US into first a war of liberation of these States and having to lick both the CSA and Mexico!

What do you guys say?
 
I would imagine something of a combination of two and three.
CSA would offer Mexico a deal: if they declare war on the US the CSA would offer Sonora and Chihuahua back to Mexico (possibly even the Mesilla territory). Mexico would back up the CSA ensuring a CSA victory although not necessarily a Mexican one.
However it most be noted that Mexico around this time is also suffering from a Civil War between republicans and imperialist. The result of the above would greatly be affected by which Mexican government the CSA attempts to woo. The republican government led by Juarez was very much backed by Lincoln, and was very liberal and staunchly antislavery (most Mexicans were) so it is very doubtful the CSA would try to convince Juarez. Asking Maximilian and Miramon for help would be much more appropriate. Maximilian could be attracted to the idea of winning back Mexican territory and therefore rallying most of Mexico under his government. This might also prompt France into entering the conflict.
Also Lincoln promised to hold the Union together at whatever cost necessary. Could he possibly hold his total war against two enemies? Or would this war be much faster and ensure a CSA victory?
What happens to Mexico afterwards could also be interesting even in Maximilian manages to convince most Central-Southern Mexico to back him up I doubt most of the Western coast and Northern provinces in Mexico would back him up. He would either have to bring Mexico in by force or Mexico might also be split in two like the US for a while before the French and CSA intervene and fix it up.
Whichever the case it would be a much bloodier conflict particularly for Mexico.
 
This is a easy POD.
The territory was relatively empty, the same as OTL Mexican Cession. Supposedly There was a New Negotiator on Route with orders to get S/C

Given Sonora, Chihuahua, and Baja* in the US, the second thing that changes is the Compromise of 1850. [1st is the Gadsen Purchase ]
Probably Missouri's southern Border is extended to the Pacific as a much harder Slave/Free line. [just north of OTL LA]

This throws Oregon and North California firmly in the Free Camp, with the Slave holders in the Areas moving South into Expanded Baja, Die Hard Free's moving North.

A little finagling the Entrance requirements [As was done OTL] and both California & Baja enter the Union together.

Comes the ACW 1n 1861 [Big IF here] The Territorial Governments of the 4 territories Join the CSA.

You Now have a True Western Front to the ACW.

*The story Goes --
The negotiation was finished, and everything agreed except Baja.
Both Negotiators tried to give it to the other side.
Finally a quick Game of Cards, decided who Got Baja --The Loser having to Keep It.
 
This is a easy POD.
The territory was relatively empty, the same as OTL Mexican Cession. Supposedly There was a New Negotiator on Route with orders to get S/C

Given Sonora, Chihuahua, and Baja* in the US, the second thing that changes is the Compromise of 1850. [1st is the Gadsen Purchase ]
Probably Missouri's southern Border is extended to the Pacific as a much harder Slave/Free line. [just north of OTL LA]

This throws Oregon and North California firmly in the Free Camp, with the Slave holders in the Areas moving South into Expanded Baja, Die Hard Free's moving North.

A little finagling the Entrance requirements [As was done OTL] and both California & Baja enter the Union together.

Comes the ACW 1n 1861 [Big IF here] The Territorial Governments of the 4 territories Join the CSA.

You Now have a True Western Front to the ACW.

*The story Goes --
The negotiation was finished, and everything agreed except Baja.
Both Negotiators tried to give it to the other side.
Finally a quick Game of Cards, decided who Got Baja --The Loser having to Keep It.

How likely is it? I was sort of planning to include it in a timeline as a butterfly (with Alaska, Oregon and Hawaii going to Canada/Brittain). So is it a reasonable thing that could be butterflied in or is it still unlikely to happen?
 
I would imagine something of a combination of two and three.
CSA would offer Mexico a deal: if they declare war on the US the CSA would offer Sonora and Chihuahua back to Mexico (possibly even the Mesilla territory). Mexico would back up the CSA ensuring a CSA victory although not necessarily a Mexican one.
However it most be noted that Mexico around this time is also suffering from a Civil War between republicans and imperialist. The result of the above would greatly be affected by which Mexican government the CSA attempts to woo. The republican government led by Juarez was very much backed by Lincoln, and was very liberal and staunchly antislavery (most Mexicans were) so it is very doubtful the CSA would try to convince Juarez. Asking Maximilian and Miramon for help would be much more appropriate. Maximilian could be attracted to the idea of winning back Mexican territory and therefore rallying most of Mexico under his government. This might also prompt France into entering the conflict.
Also Lincoln promised to hold the Union together at whatever cost necessary. Could he possibly hold his total war against two enemies? Or would this war be much faster and ensure a CSA victory?
What happens to Mexico afterwards could also be interesting even in Maximilian manages to convince most Central-Southern Mexico to back him up I doubt most of the Western coast and Northern provinces in Mexico would back him up. He would either have to bring Mexico in by force or Mexico might also be split in two like the US for a while before the French and CSA intervene and fix it up.
Whichever the case it would be a much bloodier conflict particularly for Mexico.
My big problem with this idea is how soon after the American/Mexican war the Civil War occurs. If it occurs on schedule, I wouldn't expect the Mexicans to be so eager in gunning for war. Hell if I were a Mexican leader, all I'd have to do is take a look at the last results of a war with the United States--massive loss of territory--and wonder what might possibly happen to my country if it lost another war. Frankly, if I were Mexico at the time, my answer to the CSA would be "No way, Jose."

On the other hand, that's asking for a lot of rational thought, when as far as I can tell rational thought was the furthest thing from everybody's mind at that time. And the CSA did possess most of the leaders who lead the USA into victory against Mexico.

Regardless, even if Mexico intervenes I'm not seeing why the CSA would win a victory against the USA. Mexico simply does not bring much to the table anymore.
 
Hell if I were a Mexican leader, all I'd have to do is take a look at the last results of a war with the United States--massive loss of territory--and wonder what might possibly happen to my country if it lost another war.

True, and honestly so would I, but Mexico has been humiliated and it currently has two governments struggling for power and popularity (at the time Mexico truly had to governments first two presidents and then a president and a monarch you chose which one to be loyal to).
That is why Juarez or who whoever is the leader of the liberal faction in Mexico, in the case that he is butterflied out, would probably refuse (plus the fact that they would be staunchly anti-slavery). They could however help the US and declare war on the CSA if the US promised them to return the "empty" territory: Chihuahua, Sonora, and possibly Mesilla (southern arizona), and New Mexico.
However the conservatives, also desperate for popularity might consider helping out the CSA on the Western Front. Particularly if Maximilian is present. The monarchy would be expecting help from France. They were on OTL, although they never got it and my guess is they wouldn't in this TL either. It also depends on what territory is the CSA offering. If Baja stays loyal to the US, or stayed Mexican in the first place then they probably would offer as much or more than the US. If Baja secedes as well, they would need territory to connect it to the rest CSA and therefore the offer would not be as tempting.
Mexico at this point is very politically fragmented, even more than in OTL due to greater loss of territory. It is not hard to imagine that some idiot general would use the situation to his advantage in order to try and gain popularity.
Like you said, I have problems with this scenario, and I would say no way to the CSA and the US both. But it is not hard imagining another Santa Anna character and messing things up once more.
 
How likely is it? I was sort of planning to include it in a timeline as a butterfly (with Alaska, Oregon and Hawaii going to Canada/Britain). So is it a reasonable thing that could be butterflied in or is it still unlikely to happen?
Well supposedly the Negotiator who wanted S/C was on the way, Easy to Butterfly Him arriving Earlier. or being there from the Beginning. [Just a slightly different Negotiation team Sent]
With the US having Sonora, Baja going with the US is a no Brainier.

IIRC the Conference With Britain extending the 49o to the Pacific took place during the MAW, so this can't butterfly Oregon.
However Alaska & Hawiia are both post ACW, So this can definitely Butterfly Them.

IIRC the Comprise of 1840 extended Missouri's southern Border to the continental divide. [not looking it up - last time I did I lost 4 hours reading]
This smaller part south of the line is one of the reasons behind the Texas 5 part idea.
Having 1850 extent it to the Pacific Coast is Reasonable, and despite the politics Doable. Now that whe have about as much territory north and south of the line.
Given a Hard Free/Slave line, I see slave Owners north of the line and Freeholders in the south Moving,
This will include some of the Missouri, Kansas, people who caused the Troubles there, ---- Maybe no JayHawkers ATL.
I see most of the Slaveholders in Oregon territory, NCalifornia, Moving into Baja.

The Calif/Baja coming in at the same time as Free/Slave, requires some manipulation of the Statehood requirements, But it was done OTL, It is possible ATL.

How the Mexican Cession will be divided is up to the writer, but I think SO, CH, NM, AZ, is as likely as any other.

I think that given this Hard Line, a lot of the Wrangling, Politicing about Slavery will decrease, That the South is sure of 4~5 Proto States, means they are less focused on losing control in the Congress.

Butterflying the 1860 Election campaign.
Whe have different Candidates, maybe even No Lincoln, or less united Republicans. Meaning no Walkout in 1861, No ACW.
A slighty later split after everyone accepts the two halfs, means a peaceful split.
 
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Well supposedly the Negotiator who wanted S/C was on the way, Easy to Butterfly Him arriving Earlier. or being there from the Beginning. [Just a slightly different Negotiation team Sent]
With the US having Sonora, Baja going with the US is a no Brainier.

IIRC the Conference With Britain extending the 49o to the Pacific took place during the MAW, so this can't butterfly Oregon.
However Alaska & Hawiia are both post ACW, So this can definitely Butterfly Them.

IIRC the Comprise of 1840 extended Missouri's southern Border to the continental divide. [not looking it up - last time I did I lost 4 hours reading]
This smaller part south of the line is one of the reasons behind the Texas 5 part idea.
Having 1850 extent it to the Pacific Coast is Reasonable, and despite the politics Doable. Now that whe have about as much territory north and south of the line.
Given a Hard Free/Slave line, I see slave Owners north of the line and Freeholders in the south Moving,
This will include some of the Missouri, Kansas, people who caused the Troubles there, ---- Maybe no JayHawkers ATL.
I see most of the Slaveholders in Oregon territory, NCalifornia, Moving into Baja.

The Calif/Baja coming in at the same time as Free/Slave, requires some manipulation of the Statehood requirements, But it was done OTL, It is possible ATL.

How the Mexican Cession will be divided is up to the writer, but I think SO, CH, NM, AZ, is as likely as any other.

I think that given this Hard Line, a lot of the Wrangling, Politicing about Slavery will decrease, That the South is sure of 4~5 Proto States, means they are less focused on losing control in the Congress.

Butterflying the 1860 Election campaign.
Whe have different Candidates, maybe even No Lincoln, or less united Republicans. Meaning no Walkout in 1861, No ACW.
A slighty later split after everyone accepts the two halfs, means a peaceful split.
Not ONLY that, But The Generation that Came to Power in The 1850s was Much More Uncompromising, Than The Generations on Either Side ...

Regardless of Outcome, Slavery Either Persisting in The South or Dying in Place ...

The Whole Lot of 'em, Were The Worst Possible People to be Handling Any Crisis!

:eek:
 
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