How likely is it? I was sort of planning to include it in a timeline as a butterfly (with Alaska, Oregon and Hawaii going to Canada/Britain). So is it a reasonable thing that could be butterflied in or is it still unlikely to happen?
Well supposedly the Negotiator who wanted S/C was on the way,
Easy to Butterfly Him arriving Earlier. or being there from the Beginning. [Just a slightly different Negotiation team Sent]
With the US having Sonora, Baja going with the US is a no Brainier.
IIRC the Conference With Britain extending the 49o to the Pacific took place during the MAW, so this can't butterfly Oregon.
However Alaska & Hawiia are both post ACW, So this can definitely Butterfly Them.
IIRC the Comprise of 1840 extended Missouri's southern Border to the continental divide. [not looking it up - last time I did I lost 4 hours reading]
This smaller part south of the line is one of the reasons behind the Texas 5 part idea.
Having 1850 extent it to the Pacific Coast is Reasonable, and
despite the politics Doable. Now that whe have about as much territory north and south of the line.
Given a
Hard Free/Slave line, I see slave Owners north of the line and Freeholders in the south Moving,
This will include some of the Missouri, Kansas, people who caused the Troubles there,
---- Maybe no JayHawkers ATL.
I see most of the Slaveholders in Oregon territory, NCalifornia, Moving into Baja.
The Calif/Baja coming in at the same time as Free/Slave, requires some manipulation of the Statehood requirements, But it was done OTL, It is possible ATL.
How the Mexican Cession will be divided is up to the writer, but I think SO, CH, NM, AZ, is as likely as any other.
I think that given this Hard Line, a lot of the Wrangling, Politicing about Slavery will decrease, That the South is sure of 4~5 Proto States, means they are less focused on losing control in the Congress.
Butterflying the 1860 Election campaign.
Whe have different Candidates, maybe even No Lincoln, or less united Republicans. Meaning no Walkout in 1861, No ACW.
A slighty later split after everyone accepts the two halfs, means a peaceful split.