Ostrogothic Kingdom and the Gothic War(535-554)

The Ostrogoths could have won the Gothic War(535-554)

  • very unlikely (0-20%)

    Votes: 4 10.5%

  • unlikely (20-40%)

    Votes: 11 28.9%

  • Could have gone both ways (40-60%)

    Votes: 19 50.0%

  • likely (60-80%)

    Votes: 1 2.6%

  • very likely (80-100%)

    Votes: 3 7.9%
  • Total voters
    38

Hvalrossen

OTL The Byzantines succesfully conquered Italy from the Ostrogothic Kingdom. Due to Italy being devasted and depopulated during the course of the war, the Byzantines were unable to protect their new won holdings from the incoming Lombards. In the longterm the Gothic War(535-554), and the subsequent Lombard invasion set the stage for Italys political disunity, that would last until the Italian Unification(1815-1871). When Italy was unified in 1871, it had been over a millenia since Italy had been under a common political state(Byzantines), and longer since it had been the center of a political unit(Ostrogothic Kingdom).

How would Italy be affected if the Ostrogoths won the war?
What if the Ostrogoths won the war early, and without heavy losses?

How would the Gothic War(535-554) affect the relationship between 'Goths' and 'Italians', had the Goths been victorious?

What if the Gothic revival(541-551) leads to the Byzantines conceding defeat?

How might the Lombards be affected in a scenario where the Goths are victorious?

How might Italy's longterm future be affected by a Gothic victory?

How would Italy be affected if the Gothic War(535-554) did not happen?
 
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P L Richards

P L Richards

It seems unlikely, but if they win the Gothic war the Italian peninsular should remain united for the time being. The Ostrogothic kingdom should parallel the Visigothic kingdom in Iberia, and when they eventually convert to Nicean Christianity will intermarry with Italians and lose their separate ethnic identity, If they can defeat the Byzantines they they should be able to hold off the Lombards and stop them entering most of Italy. Will ERE try to conquer them again? Probably at some point, but developments in late 6th and in 7th centuries make that less possible fo a bit.
 

Hvalrossen

How would the Balkans(from the Balkan Peninsula up to the Carpathians) be affected in a scenario where the Italian Goths win the Gothic War(535-554)?
 

FranzAncheNo

A Gothic victory could be achieved as @LordKalvan said in a similar thread not so long ago with an alternate battle of Taginae in which the Lombards that served in the Byzantine army rebel against Narses perhaps convinced by some of Totila's arian priests.
Totila winning at Taginae sounds too late for a Byzantine reconquest of Italy, so there's a chance the Ostrogoths could keep the entire Peninsula under their control (Actually I think Southern Apulia at least would remain controlled by Constantinople.).
In my opinion to avoid instability in the following decades an agreement with the Papacy is needed (Perhaps Sutri to begin and later parts of central Lazio.).
IOTL Totila invited groups of Franks and Alamanni in Italy to win the war and try to rebuild a state after, so its likely he would continue this trend.
The rest of the VI century could be quite turbulent for Italy (Franks, Avars, Lombards.) and so the Gothic Kingdom needs to adapt to survive.
With both Lombards and Avars at the eastern border inviting the first to settle in Friuli and Northeastern Veneto (Piave as western border?) as allies (Or vassals?) would really be useful to keep the second out of Italy.
About a possible Frank invasion in 586 I think that a successful reconstruction and the help of the Lombards would be enough.
I don't think Ravenna would remain the capital without possessions in the Balkans, with Lombard allies in the East and a Frankish threat in the West (Pavia would definitely be a better alternative.).
In the VII a conversion to Christianity sounds almost obvious.
After a conversion to Christianity I think a King in Pavia would soon decide to claim the title of Roman Emperor (Even Holy if the Pope recognizes him.).
A smaller and more east-centred Lombard Kingdom would keep both Arianism and Paganism for a bit longer and would likely mean a larger German speaking community in Italy, but to understand how large we need the help of an expert (@LSCatilina?) and I'm definitely not the right person.
 
Basileus_Komnenos

Basileus_Komnenos

The Gothic War should have been a cakewalk for the Romans. The Goths and the other Germanic kingdoms that lived in the West nominally swore fealty and paid homage to the emperor in Constantinople. They lived in fear in a massive invasion of the East. Justinian's army managed to defeat the Ostrogoths while fighting the Persians on another front and the empire taking a huge hit from the plague. Roman armies were markedly superior in discipline, training and equipment than that of the Goths. The only reason they even conquered the West was because the West had no army after its economy collapsed. The other Germanic tribes were the army of the Late Western Empire. Justinian gave Belisarius a small expeditionary force of a couple thousand men to invade Italy. Belisarius's logistics were already strained once he got to Naples. The Goths began to fold rapidly once Justinian and the empire focused proper resources (manpower and supplies) and focus into the campaign. Heck Justinian with a tiny force managed to take Southern Spain from the Visigoths while the empire was overstretched, near bankrupt, and devastated by plague. Justinian's also bungled the campaign with his lack of clear chain of command structure. The disputes between and Narses and Belisarius and between their men led to the Roman forces losing many opportunities for a quick victory culminating in the Sack of Mediolanum. However even with all this incompetence in Italy the empire still beat the Ostrogoths. Even if the Romans lost to the Ostrogoths with Justinian focusing on the East let's say with a more successful Persia once Khosrau is beaten, Justinian or his successors will send men back to face the Ostrogoths and they will lose during the second after facing the full onslaught of Rome unless some ASB intervenes.
 
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knightdepaix

Before going into the Italian peninsula, the Ostrogoths resided in nowadays Bosnia and Pannonia. How about the ERE acting early to not letting the Ostrogoths going into Italy but were recruited as mercenaries. Then Narses managed them and the Roman troops to invade Odocar's domain. The winning Ostrogothic leftover (not much) were allowed to stay. The ERE would need Gepids and Ostrogoths to face the Avars anyway if another ATL took place.
 
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