The Biggest “What if?” of the middle ages: What if Ostrogoth Italy had survived?
When Justinian conquered Italy in his effort to reconquer all of the Western Roman Empire it had several negative effects on the Mediterranean World for many years to come: the war bled the Empire of much needed soldiers and money, it overextended its borders, it left it open to Persian invasions and it devastated Italy so that it wouldn’t be a good place to raise taxes or recruit soldiers. These effects left it incapable of fending off the Persians, Avars and Arabs. Even worse, it destroyed Italy’s position under the Goth’s as a cultural center and leader of the Barbarian nations as it had been under Theodoric. He, like some of the other Gothic kings, had seen themselves as protectors of Roman culture and laws. The Lombards and Franks were too primitive to keep the flame alive.
So what if the Ostrogoths had won? Their best king and military leader was Totilla, who fought the Byzantine armies for over a decade with a much smaller force after the former king had lost the entire kingdom except for areas of the North. He won back most of it and even expanded it before his death. He was a brilliant general and like Theodoric sought to preserve Roman culture. What if he had been in charge since the beginning? I think he would have defeated Belisarius and Narses. After that, with Roman culture preserved instead of destroyed by the Lombards would the Renaissance have come about faster?
Could he have united the Latin people of Italy with the Goths against the Byzantines? Maybe with some propaganda about the Byzantines being Greeks, not proper Romans and bringing Pagan mercenaries with them? A Latin wife and Queen could have helped with that.
So what do you think? I’m not an expert in this era so I’d be happy to hear the weaknesses of my theory.