Ostend Manifesto goes through; now what?

WI the Ostend Manifesto actually plays out, and the US gets Cuba. What happens to the Cuban independence movement? AFAIK they were aggregating for independence, so how do they view the change in management from Spain to America?

What affect does this have on US politics, especially in the run up to the civil war? IMHO Cuba is pretty obviously going to come in as a slave state; does this mean Kansas enters as a free state to maintain the North-South/Free-Slave state balance? If so how does the lack of Bleeding Kansas affect the years leading to the ACW; is the ACW pushed back, or avoided somehow?

Asides from the North/South split, how does this affect US policy? After beating Mexico and purchasing Cuba, does the US have a more southern view now? Does she build a southern railroad through the former Mexican territories to connect the South to the West - is the Gadsden Purchase larger for butterflies from a successful Ostend, or smaller because of it?

Internationally what's the European reaction to the US' sudden expansion on the North American continent? Notably now at the expense of a European state. Though the US purchases Cuba there was always the implication throughout negotiations that she would seize it by force if Spain wasn't willing to sell - I imagine that doesn't look too good to the British especially, with her Caribbean and Canadian territories bordering the United States.

I know, lots of questions :eek: However I've seen the Ostend Manifesto discussed several times, but never thoroughly of in any kind of depth. It always seem to be either dismissed out of hand, or somehow lead to Confederate-wank in the ACW. So, thoughts?
 
All right, I will make an attempt an respond. It is an interesting fact to consider.

I think it is also how the manifesto is played out. I see the USA waving a saber to gain Cuba, but ultimately obtaining it peacefully. The UK allows the transfer to happen.

It drives the North, anti-slavery camp into more of a frenzy.

Cuba is not admitted as a state right away. Has to wait a few years. It is a US territory.

Bleeding Kansas still occurs.

US civil war still occurs. Confederates take control of Cuba. I can see a couple of scenarios:
1.) Lincoln sends arms to Cubans who still desire to be free
2.) US blockades Cuba but does not invade right away as it would draw troop power away. Troops do land in Cuba late 1864 after Mobile or after Appomattox to reaffirm US sovereignty.

Instead of reconstruction, Cuba sees internal improvements in the 1870's and 1880's.

Become tourist hot spot.

During Civil War, West Virginia never breaks away from Virginia, but sets up a Union state government in Wheeling and send senators and congressmen (I put this in there to maintain 50 states with Cuba)

Spanish American War is butterflied away
US also receives Puerto Rico in the future, it is added to Cuba
Japan gets hold of the Philippines
Some changes to WWII but somehow USA gets involved after Japan thrusts to DEI and Maylasia.
 
It's really going to piss of the north, no doubt about that. My brain is scrambled right now, so i can't come up with any insightful commentary beyond that.

Also, wasn't the Ostend Manifesto being negotiated by US diplomats against the standing orders of the president? I'm a bit fuzzy on the details, but that sounds right to me.
 
Major problems with the Blacks in Cuba.
25% Free Blacks, Major laws on the Books allowing Slaves much more Rights [ie offspring Free/Slave Marriage = Free].
Slaves allowed to work for pay on days off. Slaves given days off.

Cuba succeeds during Civil War, BUT does not join CSA.

Following end ACW, US invades Cuba to restore Order.
Cuba becomes Commonwealth Territory. [OTL Porto Rico]

Philippines become German - Japan takes in WW1.

Porto Rico Becomes a Spanish Oversea Territory following SCW.
 
It's really going to piss of the north, no doubt about that. My brain is scrambled right now, so i can't come up with any insightful commentary beyond that.

Also, wasn't the Ostend Manifesto being negotiated by US diplomats against the standing orders of the president? I'm a bit fuzzy on the details, but that sounds right to me.

It wasn't official yes...but I presume we assume it gathers steam and gains such official credence. Spain was unwilling to sell though...unlike Florida...they can keep the Americans out if they like. Your going to need to give them a motivation for such which I think is really the hard part. I think your going to need some kind of armed conflict. Such a conflict would be rallying point for liberals and conservatives in Spain uniting the Kingdom as never before and has potential consequences for the continuing conflicts between Carlist faction and Isabella's gov't. Its difficult for the US to win, but putting that aside and assuming they do..It would still probably mean massive compensation for Spain financially. All of this is not out of the realm of possibility, but its very difficult.

Cuba could be split because of its size into two terr. one slave and the other free ( adopting measures for gradual manumission if need be)
 
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