Osman Reborn; The Survival of Ottoman Democracy [An Ottoman TL set in the 1900s]

[Osman Aga]

If the sea lanes are open. Otherwise given what happened in the 1st Balkan war not so much. Which is one of the reasons that getting Greece on side would be likely critical.

I was talking in the absence of a Balkan War scenario. Even then, the Army can transported through the Sea of Marmara (although much less considering the size) or the Black Sea coast of Thrace considering the Bulgarian Navy is a non-threat when compared with the Greek Navy.

But in short, pre war situation. If the Balkan Wars would ever break out in this TL.

 

[Germaniac]

That is if the Ottomans cannot take out the Averoff early in the war which was out of ammo. If that is the case the Ottomans gain a slight advantage. Other than that, if the Ottoman Army hold the Rhodopes and other parts of Thrace against the Bulgarian Army then the land connection can help to relief Selanik from an advancing Greek Army. If the Ottoman Army can hold the Bulgarian Army away long enough a large share of the Anatolian Forces will reach Thrace as reinforcements and start pushing back Bulgaria. That is the most crucial part: hold the Bulgarians away. If Bulgaria is out Serbia and Greece cannot win on their own.

There are also cases of treason which Hasan Tahsin Pasha surrendered Selanik without a fight and fled to Europe afterwards. Also Esat Toptani betraying Hasan Riza Pasha and surrendering Shkoder to Montenegro. But that could also be a product of Nazim Pasha being an utter failure. The real plan expected some losses in Western Rumelia considering the size of the Ottoman Army in Rumelka vs the Balkan Nations and the geography. Holding defensive positions until the Anatolia Forces were ready for a push back was a must. It doesn't really work out when most of your Rumelian forces are depleted (in merely a month) by the time the Anatolian Forces are ready for war just as OTL.

I don't want to derail the discussion much further so I'll leave it with this for now.

The Ottoman Navy has nothing that can compete with the Averof, especially considering the subpar training and upkeep of their naval vessels. Sure, could the Ottomans get a lucky hit on the Averof? Of course, but it's highly unlikely and when they did go head to head the Averof was able to "cross the T" twice without suffering any significant damage. They need an EXTREMELY lucky scenario to take out the Greek Fleet. Onto the Ottoman Army, I don't say this lightly or without evidence that the Ottoman Army cannot hold the Istanbul-Salonika railway. The forces left between Salonika and the Ergene River amounted to 1 Regular Division (the size of a bulgarian brigade) 1 Regular infantry regiment and some assorted militia and redif units, opposed by 2 Bulgarian divisions (the size of an Ottoman Corp each!). I feel to make the best of a bad situation would be to not defend the region at all and use the forces in the East and West armies. Speaking of Anatolian Units it's going to be late November early December before a significant number of forces (mostly untrained) arrive in Thrace so the Ottomans are going to need to hold off the Bulgarians that long, which is possible but difficult and even then the Turks won't be ready for offensive operation until at least February, possibly later.

Hasan Tahsin also get a bad rap, he wasn't a great military commander but his strategy at Yenidje was the best possible action given the overwhelming odds against him, the downside being was when the armies left flank broke they were totally unable to hold the Vardar river line, opening up Salonika to the Greeks (Salonika's "fortress" was to defend from sea invasion and it's land defenses were non-existent.) Now all this is coming from someone who really would like to see Ottoman success in the war and only points this out to show the real issues the Ottomans need to overcome and that its not a simple matter of a flip of a coin in a battle.

 

[Kaiser Wilhelm the Tenth]

Great chapter
I think the OE need to make Greece neutral and focus on Serbia and Bulgaria in europein case of war

I totally agree. Better Greco-Ottoman relations would be interesting in light of OTL's rivalry through the years.

@Sārthākā , I assume Italy and the Ottomans will be on opposite sides of WWI. If this is so, perhaps the weakened Italians could jump on the Pan-Slavist bandwagon, supporting Bulgarian and Serbian territorial ambitions at Constantinople's expense as a way to weaken their foe?

Waiting for more...

 

[Osman Aga]

I don't want to derail the discussion much further so I'll leave it with this for now.

The Ottoman Navy has nothing that can compete with the Averof, especially considering the subpar training and upkeep of their naval vessels. Sure, could the Ottomans get a lucky hit on the Averof? Of course, but it's highly unlikely and when they did go head to head the Averof was able to "cross the T" twice without suffering any significant damage. They need an EXTREMELY lucky scenario to take out the Greek Fleet. Onto the Ottoman Army, I don't say this lightly or without evidence that the Ottoman Army cannot hold the Istanbul-Salonika railway. The forces left between Salonika and the Ergene River amounted to 1 Regular Division (the size of a bulgarian brigade) 1 Regular infantry regiment and some assorted militia and redif units, opposed by 2 Bulgarian divisions (the size of an Ottoman Corp each!). I feel to make the best of a bad situation would be to not defend the region at all and use the forces in the East and West armies. Speaking of Anatolian Units it's going to be late November early December before a significant number of forces (mostly untrained) arrive in Thrace so the Ottomans are going to need to hold off the Bulgarians that long, which is possible but difficult and even then the Turks won't be ready for offensive operation until at least February, possibly later.

Hasan Tahsin also get a bad rap, he wasn't a great military commander but his strategy at Yenidje was the best possible action given the overwhelming odds against him, the downside being was when the armies left flank broke they were totally unable to hold the Vardar river line, opening up Salonika to the Greeks (Salonika's "fortress" was to defend from sea invasion and it's land defenses were non-existent.) Now all this is coming from someone who really would like to see Ottoman success in the war and only points this out to show the real issues the Ottomans need to overcome and that its not a simple matter of a flip of a coin in a battle.

I have to say it again: When/if the Averoff is caught --> without ammunition <--, which was the case in the early moments of the war. If a Ship has no ammunition it can't really respond to attack can it? The Averoff was the most dangerous vessel within the Greek Navy, if that is taken out (probably damaged enough and thus kept in Piraeus for reparations) I consider it as a slight advantage. That is looking at the first sentence if it is caught in the moment when they had no ammo.

I also mentioned about Hasan Tahsin, his surrender may have been influenced by the horrible war plan of Nazim Pasha which resulted in the early defeats of the Army and overrunning Macedonia and Thrace, leaving Selanik pretty much surrounded. I don't 100% blame him though it does not make his reputation any better. If he was going to surrender he should have waited long enough until the Bulgarian Army arrived and surrendered to them. That would most definitely cause a war between these two nations. Better for the Ottoman Empire even in a defeat in the first war. But that would be my suggestion...

The Ottoman success in this war isn't easy and I accept that. The geography is horrendous for defense and one of its neighbor is relatively more militarized, fielding an army almost the size of yours. The Navy is neglected for longer periods. But the Ottoman Army can perform much better than OTL even with these situation. Let see what OP will come up with.

 

[Osman Aga]

I totally agree. Better Greco-Ottoman relations would be interesting in light of OTL's rivalry through the years.

@Sārthākā , I assume Italy and the Ottomans will be on opposite sides of WWI. If this is so, perhaps the weakened Italians could jump on the Pan-Slavist bandwagon, supporting Bulgarian and Serbian territorial ambitions at Constantinople's expense as a way to weaken their foe?

Waiting for more...

Not necessarily. If the War is over the Italians would pretty likely want the pre-war agreements which also includes economic capitulations. This does not stop the Italians from having desires on Ottoman Territory but Italy would wait for a better moment. Italy had also designs for Albania, if Albania would end up higher due to an "Albanian Eyalet" (including Albania, Kosovo, Epirus and Western Macedonia) then it means a theoretical Italian protectorate in Albania is also larger. Supporting Pan-Slavism bandwagon isn't beneficial for Italy either with their desires in Albania and Dalmatia. If it happens, good, less Ottoman interference in Albania but that is about it.

If this was a real life scenario the Ottoman Empire would likely avoid war as much as possible (Or enter war because Russia or Austria-Hungary gets trashed very hard... more than OTL, because the desire for Kars/Bosnia). Italy still has issues with Austria-Hungary. If it can gain their desired land in Austria-Hungary, hoping to forget about the loss in Libya it could satisfy Italian desire for a short while and hope for German and Austro-Hungarian support in a future war with the Ottoman Empire.

 

[Lascaris]

That is if the Ottomans cannot take out the Averoff early in the war which was out of ammo. If that is the case the Ottomans gain a slight advantage. Other than that, if the Ottoman Army hold the Rhodopes and other parts of Thrace against the Bulgarian Army then the land connection can help to relief Selanik from an advancing Greek Army. If the Ottoman Army can hold the Bulgarian Army away long enough a large share of the Anatolian Forces will reach Thrace as reinforcements and start pushing back Bulgaria. That is the most crucial part: hold the Bulgarians away. If Bulgaria is out Serbia and Greece cannot win on their own.

There are also cases of treason which Hasan Tahsin Pasha surrendered Selanik without a fight and fled to Europe afterwards. Also Esat Toptani betraying Hasan Riza Pasha and surrendering Shkoder to Montenegro. But that could also be a product of Nazim Pasha being an utter failure. The real plan expected some losses in Western Rumelia considering the size of the Ottoman Army in Rumelka vs the Balkan Nations and the geography. Holding defensive positions until the Anatolia Forces were ready for a push back was a must. It doesn't really work out when most of your Rumelian forces are depleted (in merely a month) by the time the Anatolian Forces are ready for war just as OTL.

Averof was not out of ammo. Its ammo stocks were lower than desired initially, due to intensive training earlier in 1911-12 but lower than desired and out of ammo are entirely different things, after all the Greeks sailed out to capture Lemnos at the start of the war fully expecting the Ottoman navy would come out to fight, not the actions of a fleet without the necessary ammunition to give battle. And even if one removes completely Averof from the picture, Hydra, Spetsai and Psara were roughly the same age with Barbaros and Turgut Reis and their crews far better trained than their Ottoman counterparts as shown at the battle of Lemnos. Then add to the picture the superiority of the Greek light fleet in both numbers and training...

Hasan Tahsin pasha... his army had been already defeated twice at Sanantaporo and Giannitsa, by all accounts its morale had collapsed and was cut off in Thessaloniki facing 6 Greek infantry divisions that outnumbered him 4 to 1. (this does count the Bulgarian forces already advancing towards the city, that slightly outnumbered his force on their own). If he fought all he would had managed would had been undue loss of life most of it among his troops.

 

[Thomas_Wellesley]

A timeline about the Ottoman Empire in the 1900s you say?

One where they do a lot better in their war against Italy?

Consider me interested and this watched

I'm particularly excited about the future of the Ottoman Navy.

 

[Sarthak]

Chapter 3: The Balkan Powder keg.

***

“The Ottoman Empire at the start of November, 1911 was at the crossroads. It had successfully reinforced Ottoman Libya, and whilst the Italians had got a toehold on Libya, the majority of the lands remained in Ottoman hands, the Italian troops remained cooped up in Tripoli, Al-Khums and Tobruk, all under siege from the Ottoman forces. The Egyptian Khedive Abbas II was secretly supporting the Ottomans, and Ottoman supplies were smuggled through Egypt multiple times to keep the troops supplied. Often times, Ottoman merchant marine in Constantinople would fly the Egyptian flag, sail down to Sidi Barrani and El Salloum and then smuggle the goods they had to Libya. The Egyptian government had also garnered around 5000 Egyptian troops as a volunteer force that were sent to Libya as well. In naval matters, the Ottomans had managed to gain a medium scale victory in the Red Sea and had prevented Italian reinforcements to come from Somalia and Eritrea, and had imposed a blockade on Italian goods on the Red Sea temporarily, knowing that when Italian naval reinforcements arrived, the fleet would have to sail back into harbor.

Meanwhile, within the Ottoman Ministry of War, Minister of War Mahmud Shevket Pasha was extremely busy with regards to the war. He was working with a project that had been an ambitious project of his since 1909. On the 2nd of December, 1909, Louis Bleriot and the Belgian pilot baron Pierre de Caters performed the first pilot aviation demonstration in the Ottoman Empire. After witnessing the growing importance of an air combat support branch, the Ottoman government decided to organize its own military aviation program, and for this purpose, officers were sent to Europe by the end of 1910 for pilot training, however they returned back to the Ottoman Empire due to financial constraints on the empire. Although without any guidelines, Mahmud Shevket Pasha had continued to encourage the idea of a military aviation program and in June, 1911 secret aviation written examinations were conducted. The passing aviators were then sent to Bleriot School in Paris, by the end of July 1911, to be trained to fly.

Mahmud Shevket Pasha. ​

Now, the Ottoman Empire at the start of the Italo-Ottoman War had around 5 planes in their aviation corps, all of whom were stationed in Constantinople. The planes were sent to the Levant provinces in order to scout out in the sea for Italian warships. The scouts would be used to scout for Italian warships approaching the Eastern Mediterranean. They would then return back to base and tell the local defenses about the approaching Italians and the local defenders would ready their coastal defenses.

However in comparison to the Italians, who were using their planes with impunity in Libya, the Ottomans did not have any planes in Libya, and when news arrived to Mahmud Shevket Pasha about the utilization of planes by the Italians in their invasion of Libya, the necessity of an Ottoman aviation corps being an official part of the armed forces arose. In November 4th, it finally received approval from Ibrahim Hakki Pasha, and the Ottoman Air Corps was officially established on that day, boasting a total of 5 airplanes, 8 pilots and 26 logistics staff. Not exactly something to be scared off. Nonetheless, it was a start. The Air Corps was still under the jurisdiction of the Ministry of War.

Mahmud Shevket Pasha and the Ottoman Ministry of War also had links with the Parisian aviation clubs and aviation producers, and on November 7th, an order was placed in the Bleriot aviation industry in Paris to produce 10 Bleriot XI Militaire which was a military version of the Bleriot XI plane. The Ottoman War Ministry was also looking into other planes from France and Britain, with the Ministry of War debating over the usage of the REP plane made by Robert Esnault-Pelterie. The government and ministry planned to send the planes to Libya by flying over the Eastern Mediterranean from Palestine.

A Bleriot XI. Most used for recon and a one time drop bombing runs. ​

The Ottoman Ministry of Navy was also pretty busy and doing their part for the war. The Ottoman Navy prior to the war had based its future plans based on the lessons learned from the Russo-Japanese War. The Ottomans did not have the money for a large fleet, however did have enough to start creating a medium-scale modern fleet. In 1909 a new naval program was put together called the 5 year plan intending to bring the dismal state of the Ottoman navy up to standards. This 5 year program was a 46 ship program, consisting of 6 Battleships, 4 scouts (cruisers), 20 destroyers, 6 submarines, and 2 minelayers alongside 1 training ship, 1 repair ship and 3 floating docks costing about 3.4 million pounds a year. The plan had been passed by the cabinet in early 1910. On the naval plan, the Ottoman Navy had made good progress in the auxiliary portion of the plan as by the start of the Italo-Ottoman War, they already had 1 training ship, 1 repair ship, 1 minelayer and 2 repair docks. In terms of the others, however the Ottomans were making slow progress. They had two pre-dreadnought battleships brought from Germany, and 4 new destroyers from the planned 20. They hadn’t even ordered one of the planned four cruisers.

Nonetheless the order of two dreadnoughts from Great Britain had also revived the issue of the 1909 Naval Plan and the Ministry of Naval Affairs was currently expanding the date of the plan from 1914 to 1915, with the intention of the remaining 2 battleships being entirely dreadnoughts and the cruisers all being light cruisers. The Naval Ministry saw no need for heavy cruisers for the navy, as the light and speedy focused modern Ottoman navy did not need slow moving heavy cruisers, at least in comparison to light cruisers. The remaining 16 destroyers however were subject to great debate. Not in the manner they would be built, or of what kind, but from where? The Cruisers and Dreadnoughts (the remaining ones anyway), were all being discussed with the British Embassy, with some progress, and however relying too much on the British to build their fleet wasn’t exactly what the Ottoman Empire thought was sustainable. Neither was it sustainable to ask more destroyers to be built by Germany. Germany already had a massive level of influence in the Ottoman Armed Forces, and in the navy, and increasing their influence was not on the checklist of the Ottoman government either.

However after much deliberation on part of the Naval Ministry it was surprisingly decided that 8 destroyers would be ordered from the Austro-Hungarian Empire, whilst the remaining 8 destroyers would be ordered from Germany, lowering the need of the Ottoman Empire to rely on Germany for naval matters by a good margin. The 6 submarines that the Ottomans wanted were all ordered from Austria-Hungary. The amount of time that the naval program would take was estimated to be somewhere between late 1914 to early 1916. The dreadnoughts ordered from Britain were all based on the Iron Duke Class dreadnoughts, whilst the light cruisers ordered from Britain were based on the Drake Class Armored Cruisers Class. The destroyers ordered from Germany and Austria-Hungary were all based on the Peyk-i-Sevket class destroyers, and the submarines ordered from Austria-Hungary were based on the Austro-Hungarian U u-boat series. The money being used was taken from the reserves, bonds, and some loans, though payments for many ships were to be conducted on a slow basis, not really creating a major problem at all.

Austro-Hungarian subs were more well suited for the Ottoman Empire. ​

Diplomatically, the Ottoman Empire was juggling multiple amounts of work to turn the situation in its favor. Historically, Russo-Ottoman relations had a calm period after the 1877-78 war, and relations had turned from hostile to neutral. As such, the Ottoman Empire really saw no need to talk with Russia more than necessary and Ottoman diplomats sat down with their Russian counterparts, in which they received confirmation that the Russian government would not be intervening in the war. The Ottoman Government also convened with the Ottoman Public Debt Administration or the OPDA to talk about economic affairs of the state. The Ottoman Empire had not been at war with any country which had a representative in the Ottoman Public Debt Administration ever since it was founded, and as such this was a peculiar time for the Ottoman Public Debt Administration, as Italian administrators, still worked in the administration, having not been informed about their government’s intention to go to war, and had been stranded in Constantinople. The Ottoman government argued that during times of war, individual debt owed by the government of the Ottoman Empire to the government of the Kingdom of Italy was possible, as it preserved the economic sovereignty of the Ottoman Empire. However other OPDA administrators, such as the British and French, as well as Austrians and Germans were hesitant about allowing a default on Ottoman debt owed to Italy, as it set a precedent with which the Ottoman government could negate on its debt. However it was agreed by the end of the negotiations on November 10, 1911 that the Ottoman government would have no ‘legal need to pay private Italian companies with debt repayment in the situation of war, and the Sublime Porte only owed money to the individual governments of the debt administration’. Using this loophole, the Ottoman government defaulted on it’s debts owed to private Italian companies, which amounted to 37% of the Italian held debt in the OPDA. The Italian administrators, were also asked to freeze their operations, as the Italian sector of the OPDA was temporarily frozen by the government. Alberto Theodli, the leader of the Italian Representation in the OPDA, was asked to leave the country politely and was offered passage through Austria-Hungary back to Italy. The reduction of 37% of its debts owed to Italy freed up a total of around 9 million pounds for the Ottoman government, and the money was immediately funneled into the armament industry of the country, whilst some of it was used to pay off some minor debts from the OPDA as well. [1]

In Berlin, the Ottoman Ambassador to Berlin, Osman Nizami Pasha was told by the German government that Germany had a formal obligation to Italy as a part of the Triple Alliance, however would find it ‘easier to persuade Italy to make peace, if she suffered military defeats on land with greater propensity’. This was a tacit promise from the Germans that should military operations go in favor of the Ottoman Empire in Tobruk or Tripoli, then the Germans would start diplomatic negotiations in Rome. This was good news. [2]

Osman Nizami Pasha​

In the Balkans, the Ottomans had only taken one division, the 6th Infantry Division to be diverted to Libya. The other divisions of the Ottoman Army remained in place, however the Sublime Porte was becoming increasingly fearful of a Balkan coalition against the Porte whilst being simultaneously in a war with Italy. The Third Army consisting of the 5th, 17th, 18th Infantry Divisions and the 3rd Cavalry Division was an army suited to defense, however it would not be able to survive an onslaught from Serbia, Bulgaria and Greece combined. Mahmud Shevket Pasha asked the porte on November 19th, to conduct a mobilization of the troops in the Third Army. However this request was denied, as Hakki Pasha was fearful of provoking Bulgarian or Greek reaction. However nonetheless, with the fear that the Balkans could be up to something with Italy, Hakki Pasha nonetheless, allowed the Third Army to retreat from their normal barracks back to defensive positions that were highlighted in von der Goltz’s defensive plans for the Ottoman Empire.

Flag of the Cretan State ​

A war between Greece and the Ottomans could still be diverted however. Greek diplomats and consulates were watching the war in Libya closely, intent on watching every Ottoman move. And the Ottomans wanted to use that to their advantage. Ibrahim Hakki Pasha in early 1911 had proposed the recognition of Crete as Greek territory in return for an economic pact with Greece. However with war’s prospect back then unlikely, the idea was shot down. However with a real war going on, the idea was revived again. Many asked why recognizing the de-facto situation on the ground in Crete, which had been annexed by Greece in 1908, would be any cause for the Greeks to enter a non-aggression pact and an economic pact. However the foreign minister of the Ottoman Empire, Gabriel Noradunkyan, an ethnic Armenian, put the case forward. The Cretan union with Greece was unrecognized by the Great Powers and neither was it recognized by Greece itself, with Cretan deputies not allowed in the Greek parliament. The Great Power’s police force on Crete still operated in Souda Bay flouting the Greek annexation of Crete. The Cretan question was also a huge political debate in Greece, and recognizing the Cretan Union with Greece would make the Great Powers recognize Crete as Greek, allowing Greek and foreign investment back into the island, and Cretan problem would be solved for the Greeks once and for all. Allowing the Greek’s access through the Persian Gulf was also an offer put forward by the cabinet, as it would allow the Greeks to expand their economic base, and increase their trade links in Asia, mainly with China and Japan.

On November 21st, the cabinet agreed to offer Greece a reconciliation pact. The pact offered the following points:-

• Ottoman recognition, thus worldwide recognition, of the Cretan Union with Greece.
• Greek companies, and merchant marine as well banks would be allowed full access to the Persian Gulf under the control of the Ottoman Empire.
• Rights of Greek citizens in the Ottoman Empire to be reaffirmed by the Sublime Porte.

In return the Ottoman government asked for a non-aggression pact and economic pact with the Kingdom of Greece. The next day on the 22nd, the Greek ambassador to the Sublime Porte, was called to the cabinet, where he was presented with the offer. The ambassador then contacted Prime Minister Venizelos about the offer. Prime Minister Venizelos of Greece had been pretty alarmed by the amount of orders the Ottoman government was throwing around for tis navy, which if successful, would erode Greek naval dominance in the Aegean away from Greece. However Venizelos also did not wish to be entangled in any event in the Balkans until the Greek Army and Navy were fully reorganized and modernized, as well as revitalizing the Greek economy. He had also offered a similar deal at the beginning of 1911 to the Ottomans, however without the added bonus of an economic pact which would potentially make the process of Greek economic revitalization better. In light of this, he took the offer from the Ottoman government very seriously and the ending days of November was fractious in Greece, as the Greek parliament debated on the question. The parliament was in favor of the Cretan question’s solution presented to them, as they had proposed this to the Ottoman government before, and the added bonus of an economic pact was a good one.

Ottoman and Greek diplomats signing the treaty. ​

Finally on December 3rd, 1911, the Greek parliament agreed to the reconciliation pact. Ottoman and Greek diplomats met each other in Salonika on the 11th, where they signed the Treaty of Salonika. The Treaty of Salonika was a quiet affair, in order to hide it from the Italians, and the Russians as well. The terms of the treaty were:-

• The Ottoman Government, representing Sultan Mehmed V would recognize the Cretan Union as a legitimate act, thus placing Crete as a province of the Kingdom of Greece.
• The Ottoman Government would reaffirm the rights of the Greek population of the Ottoman Empire.
• The Ottoman Empire would give full access to the Persian gulf to Greek companies, Greek banks as well as the Greek Merchant Marine.
• The Greek merchant marine would be allowed to dock at Ottoman docks in the Red Sea and Persian Gulf freely until 1918 after which they would be offered a discounted price until 1925.
• The Greek government would sign a non-aggression pact with the Ottoman Empire which would remain in force until December 31, 1915.
• The Greek government would sign a new trade treaty with the Ottoman Empire up for renewal every 3 years.
• The greek government would allow free passage of Cretan muslims into the Ottoman Empire should they wish to do so.
• The treaty would be enforced in December 30, 1911.

The Treaty of Salonika would be ratified on December 23rd. Both sides were pretty happy with the deal. Venizelos had managed to end the Cretan question once and for all, and had received a major boost in his economic reforms for the nation with the economic concessions he got from the Ottoman Empire, as well as the new trading pact. The Ottomans had managed to stave off Greece as a possible belligerent in any future conflict in the Balkans. All of the Third Army’s forces could be deployed against Bulgaria and Serbia in any future war now.

However as diplomats battled with pens and words in the political arena, the soldiers were the ones changing the military situation on the ground.”

- Excerpts from ‘Ottoman Diplomacy in the War over Libya’

“On November 14th, Ahmed Sharif, bolstered by the reinforcements of around 1,200 Senussi troops from Fezzan, decided that attacking the Italians bogged down in Al-Khums and driving them back to the sea, was now best possible. If he could do so, he could veer west and aid Neshat Bey with the Siege of Tripoli and increase the likelihood of an Italian surrender there. As such, his troops began moving from their base of operations in Msallata and started to move north.

On November 17, his 8,200 troops managed to reach Al-Khums. He immediately began an attack on the Italian forward positions, using his cavalry’s mobile speed to get around Italian defenses and attacking them at the rear. He continued to use a strategy which entailed swinging around Italian defenses, using the cavalry to their advantage and then running off the moment Italian defenses consolidated. And then, rinse and repeat. Using this technique, he managed to wear down the forward defenses of the Italian troops with great effect, with many redoubts reporting soldiers sleeping and falling into unconsciousness with fatigue, as well as exposure from the unfamiliar climate of Libya. In November 20, Ahmed Sharif closed in for the kill.

one of the few large guns that the Senussi had with them. ​

Using his precious few horse drawn artillery guns for the first time in the entire attack, he managed to surprise the Italian defenders enough for his cavalry shock troops to plug the redoubts and forward positions of the Italian defenders again and started a massive attack from all directions at the Italian defenses. With low supplies, being cut off from Tripoli, and being caught by total surprise, the Italians were driven back from the surroundings back into the city of Al-Khums, dangerously ill-defended. Many Senussi cavalrymen broke through into the city and started thoroughly looting Italian barracks before Ahmed Sharif restored order. Sharif then ordered a massive attack from two directions, the south east and south west concentrating at Al-Khums, which resulted in a melee between Italian troops and Senussi cavalrymen in the area, which close lethal point blank firing. However the Senussi advantage in numbers was too much, and soon enough they started to push. By 2 pm, the Italian captain at Al-Khums, Augusto Abry gave the order for the Italian regiments to retreat back into the ships in harbor and retreat back into the sea and back to Italy, with a potential deployment to Tripoli later on.

By 6 pm, around 1200 Italians had been evacuated before the city of Al-Khums fell. Abry ordered the fleet to move after that, stranding 700 Italians in the city. Few of them were taken prisoner, despite Sharif’s best attempts at limiting massacres. To his surprise, much of the massacres were conducted by the population of Al-Khums against the Italian troops for their mistreatment of the Muslim population during their occupation.

As soon as he recuperated his troops, he swung west intent on reaching Tripoli by the end of the first week of December. However his actions would have huge consequences. With Al-Khums as an Italian foothold gone, only two areas were left in Libya in which the Italians could penetrate Libya. That would Tobruk and Tripoli. One was being held under siege, and the second was quickly starting to loose drinking water supplies.

The Italian Indian Ocean Fleet moving north ​

At sea, the Italian Indian Ocean fleet started to move upwards into the Red Sea crossing the Bab al Mandab straits on December 13th, and started to reinforce the battered Italian Eritrean Fleet. Receiving news that the Italians were reinforcing the Red Sea, and knowing about their inability to contest the sea with Italian reinforcements, the Ottoman Red Sea fleet retreated back to Harbor. However even then, the Ottoman fleet was ordered to keep an eye out on Jeddah port, in order to save the ottoman fleet there from any attempts at destroying it from the Italians.”

- Excerpts from The War in the Sands.

“The string of defeats that the Italians faced had the Italian population back in the Italian peninsula coming up in arms. The government of Giolitti was becoming unpopular, and the socialists, who had retreated to simply writing anti-war articles, began rioting. San Giuliano, the Italian Foreign Minister had to conduct multiple meetings with foreign ambassadors to conduct what amounted to ‘these are small setbacks, nothing adverse will happen’. However, many Diplomats found this response lacking. In particular, British Foreign Minister Sir Edward Grey, who had initially supported Italian ambitions in Libya, called Italy to be ‘temperate’ and warned that any proclamation of an annexation of Libya would make the situation in Libya ‘more complex and precipitous’.

Austrian Foreign Minister, Alois Lexa von Aehrenthal​

Tensions between Austria and Italy had also been rising, and Austrian foreign minister Alois Lexa von Aehrenthal warned Italy to ‘make amends immediately so as to preserve the international status-quo before opportunity slipped from Italy’. By this point, Austria was clear in its belief that with the Italians only holding onto Tripoli and Tobruk, the military situation turning in favor of the Ottomans was only a question of time. As Italian intentions to extend the war into the Aegean became a possibility, both Aehrenthal and the German foreign minister, Alfred von Kilderen-Waechter both agitated for a mediated peace. However this time both the Austrian and German diplomats were surprised when they found that not only Italy rejected this mediation attempt, but also the Ottoman Empire. The proposed mediation basically handed over Fezzan and Tripolitania to Italy as protectorates whilst the Ottomans kept Cyrenaica. This was unacceptable to the Ottoman Empire, releasing a press statement:

……With military situation in Libya turning in favor of the Porte, it is not within the intention of the Porte to seek terms with Italy which will assume lost territory for the Porte. An equal peace, and status quo ante bellum are the only offers on the table….

In December 17th, Gabriel Noradunkyan, the Foreign Minister of the Ottoman Empire agreed to meet to go to Vienna to meet with Aehrenthal and the Italian attache there personally to start diplomatic negotiations, however he warned that unless the military situation turned decisively in favor of Italy, the Porte was not in the mood to discuss any concessions to Italy.

Gabriel Noradunkyan, the most prominent Ottoman Armenian in the Ottoman Empire and the Foreign Minister of the Empire. ​

Resit Pasha, the Ottoman ambassador in Vienna, started to negotiate with the Italian ambassador to Vienna, Ambassador Averna about peace. Averna remained elusive and did not give a proper answer, wanting to wait it out until he received proper information from Rome on how to react. In Rome, General Spingaddi and Polio had given a document to King Emanuel III and Giolitti stating that if the Turks drove the Italians out of Tripoli and tobruk, then any hopes of winning the war was over, as the amphibious capability of Italy was in question, as well as the fact that the war was costing 110 million every month, rather than the thought 30 million, costing almost 4 times as much than what the Italian government had thought it would cost.

And the Ottomans were very much intent in pushing the Italians back out of Libya.”

Excerpts from the Great Concert of Europe in the 20th Century
***
Footnotes:-

[1] considered otl, did not go through.

[2] – exact offer given by the germans otl

***

 

[Sarthak]

Thoughts?

 

[haider najib]

cool, surprised by the bigger naval build up. Im still hoping for german aligned ottomans simply so Kars region can be taken back. Personally would rather have not have greece and ottomans align have the balkan war and the ottomans win @Osman Aga is smart enough to figure how it would work.

Question will fez remain a popular hat in your tl?

Also Hypothetically say if ww1 still goes the same excluding the ottomans so russian revolution etc and rise of facism will the jews flee to the ottoman empire then? If so what will the demographic impact be will Macedonia become Jewish majority?

 

[Remington 2.0]

Are we going to see a post Libya war a naval race between the Greeks,Ottoman and other powers over control of the eastern mediaterranean and black sea and will the Balkan Wars still happen with a victorious ottoman emoire or will it keep the Balkan nations neutral still a major war breaks out in Europe?

 

[haider najib]

Are we going to see a post Libya war a naval race between the Greeks,Ottoman

These two are only competing against each other neither will ever be a match for a great power and none of the great powers really have to fear either of these two.

 

[Azureora]

Damn, now that’s a firm shot of victory in the Ottoman nation. Enough to justify their continued attempts at industrialization and consolidation of their national identity. Nothing like a victorious defensive war against a foreign aggressor to unify a diverse people.

 

[Sarthak]

cool, surprised by the bigger naval build up. Im still hoping for german aligned ottomans simply so Kars region can be taken back. Personally would rather have not have greece and ottomans align have the balkan war and the ottomans win @Osman Aga is smart enough to figure how it would work.

the naval buildup was a long time coming really. About international alignment, the best way forward for the Ottomans would really to be neutral

Question will fez remain a popular hat in your tl?

yes.

Also Hypothetically say if ww1 still goes the same excluding the ottomans so russian revolution etc and rise of facism will the jews flee to the ottoman empire then? If so what will the demographic impact be will Macedonia become Jewish majority?

Salonika was once jewish majority is it is a possibility

 

[Sarthak]

Are we going to see a post Libya war a naval race between the Greeks,Ottoman and other powers over control of the eastern mediaterranean and black sea and will the Balkan Wars still happen with a victorious ottoman emoire or will it keep the Balkan nations neutral still a major war breaks out in Europe?

These two are only competing against each other neither will ever be a match for a great power and none of the great powers really have to fear either of these two.

Both Greece and the Turks will be engaged in a semi-naval race yes, however with the cooling in relations, a middle ground like a naval treaty is likely.

 

[Sarthak]

Damn, now that’s a firm shot of victory in the Ottoman nation. Enough to justify their continued attempts at industrialization and consolidation of their national identity. Nothing like a victorious defensive war against a foreign aggressor to unify a diverse people.

indeed!

 

[Sarthak]

any predictions?

 

[Azureora]

No clue, as I’m drawing a fat blank on the politics and social situation of Middle East at that time period.

 

[Karelian]

First of all, I'm really glad to see a detailed Ottoman TL.

I assume that things in the Balkans have gone as OTL?
Are the Albanians as unruly as they were in OTL then?
Who defeated the countercoup attempt of 1909?
Is the court General Staff (Maiyeti Seniyye Erkani Harbiye) still in office?
If not, how are the relations between alaylı and mektepli officers?

The Ottomans opted against sending 4 divisions to Vilayet of Tripolitania because they knew that they could not supply them in a prolonged war. So in TTL they have boots on the ground, but no stockpiles to maintain them. They'll melt to the countryside as irregulars, should the war continue to draw on. Also, from where were these divisions taken away from, and are they regular or reserve divisions?

 

[Sarthak]

Are the Albanians as unruly as they were in OTL then?
Who defeated the countercoup attempt of 1909?
Is the court General Staff (Maiyeti Seniyye Erkani Harbiye) still in office?
If not, how are the relations between alaylı and mektepli officers?

The Albanians are being unruly yes, however with victories to show to the public ittl from the government, the unruliness has dimmed ittl. The general staff is still there, and the relations between the officers are iffy, but good at the moment.

The Ottomans opted against sending 4 divisions to Vilayet of Tripolitania because they knew that they could not supply them in a prolonged war. So in TTL they have boots on the ground, but no stockpiles to maintain them. They'll melt to the countryside as irregulars, should the war continue to draw on. Also, from where were these divisions taken away from, and are they regular or reserve divisions?

other than the 6th Division, all other divisions were taken from the Syrian and Levant Armies. The shipment to Libya took place in conjunction with supplies, however yes, the Ottomans are counting on a swift victory and preserving ammunition, whilst using the local Senussi and Arabs to their utmost advantage.