Predictions for the Balkan War:
Outside the Balkans, other capitols I can see being occupied with a moderate or better level of probability are Monaco, Luxembourg (if it isn't occupied already), Paris (if the French war effort buckles and the Central Powers are able to conclude the Eastern theater quickly enough to capitalize), Rome (if the same happens but in reverse, with the Italians on the back foot), and Petrograd. Berlin and Amsterdam could potentially be occupied as wildcard options, though I don't consider either especially likely; the former would require a good Russian showing in the East, the latter would require the Dutch to be uncharacteristically cavalier about their precious neutrality. Same applies to Vienna, which I only see coming under military occupation in the event of a Hungarian revolt. London is obviously unassailable, and I really can't see any of the Iberian or Scandinavian powers getting meaningfully involved in the conflict at this stage.
- Bulgaria ends up ceding the Dobrudja to Romania, and quite possibly a sizable chunk of former East Rumelia to the Ottomans. Losses in the latter dimension will be contingent upon Bulgarian performance up to the point they capitulate; I predict they will be fairly small simply because of the quantity and relative quality of the Bulgarian army.
- Serbia cedes eastern territories with substantial Romanian/Vlach population to Romania; possibly some Ottoman territorial cessions, though I lean to purely economic indemnities being more likely.
- Montenegro manages to peace out either with no major territorial losses or token gains, given how much Nicholas I's character has been advertised. Guessing on the former due to the fact that the Montenegrin army is simply too small to survive a protracted conflict with the Ottomans.
Outside the Balkans, other capitols I can see being occupied with a moderate or better level of probability are Monaco, Luxembourg (if it isn't occupied already), Paris (if the French war effort buckles and the Central Powers are able to conclude the Eastern theater quickly enough to capitalize), Rome (if the same happens but in reverse, with the Italians on the back foot), and Petrograd. Berlin and Amsterdam could potentially be occupied as wildcard options, though I don't consider either especially likely; the former would require a good Russian showing in the East, the latter would require the Dutch to be uncharacteristically cavalier about their precious neutrality. Same applies to Vienna, which I only see coming under military occupation in the event of a Hungarian revolt. London is obviously unassailable, and I really can't see any of the Iberian or Scandinavian powers getting meaningfully involved in the conflict at this stage.
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