Osman Reborn; The Survival of Ottoman Democracy [An Ottoman TL set in the 1900s]

[Remington 2.0]

One of the main problems for the Ottoman Empire is that the middle east they controlled is not heavily populated and a lot of the population is made of minorities who if supplied with weapons or given a chance to be independent by Ottoman enemies could cause them to rise against the ottoman tying up large parts of the army specially since the minorities are able to hit and run and disappear before the Ottoman army can reinforce the attacked position since they are familiar with the territory like OTL

 

[Sarthak]

One of the main problems for the Ottoman Empire is that the middle east they controlled is not heavily populated and a lot of the population is made of minorities who if supplied with weapons or given a chance to be independent by Ottoman enemies could cause them to rise against the ottoman tying up large parts of the army specially since the minorities are able to hit and run and disappear before the Ottoman army can reinforce the attacked position since they are familiar with the territory like OTL

that is true for the European part of the Empire. Not so much for the Asian part of the empire. The Arabs before 1916 were loyal and the Kurds were very loyal under the Ottomans, and one for their die hard supporters. The Jews were protected by the government within the Ottoman Empire and as such loyal as well. The Assyrians were the only major dissident group in the asian part of the Ottoman Empire. And their population too low to make much of a difference.

 

[EmperorBuaya]

I want to say...love the new TL you've made, Sarthaka. Realistic and interesting, it's not every day that anyone can do the Ottoman Empire around the early period. Indeed, OE needs more love. In most of the TLs, it's like hufflepuff house sidelined into the background.

 

[Hawabin]

it's not every day that anyone can do the Ottoman Empire around the early period.

I think its rather late period for them.

 

[Sarthak]

I think its rather late period for them.

think he meant early 1900s.

 

[Sarthak]

I want to say...love the new TL you've made, Sarthaka. Realistic and interesting, it's not every day that anyone can do the Ottoman Empire around the early period. Indeed, OE needs more love. In most of the TLs, it's like hufflepuff house sidelined into the background.

thanks!

 

[Sarthak]

States lowering their expectatations from Italy rather than expecting more from the Ottoman Empire. However, the Ottoman Empire is in a better position as the Entente AND Central Powers would want to get it on their side. The Ottoman Empire would prefer to stay out until there is something to gain. That is, if it avoids a coup like in 1913 as in the Balkan Wars.

if the ottomans win, a coup is virtually dead. democracy would have been tried by fire so to say

Serbia is less motivated to fight a war without Macedonia and a veteran Army unless Vienna leaves no option.

Russia would also try to get Bulgaria on it's side should there be a new war with the Ottoman Empire. Bulgaria proved to be unreliable since the 1880s but diplomacy is flexible. Who knows...

If the Ottoman Empire is in a stronger position while the Great Powers are at war I'd expect pressure on Montenegro to regain Ulcinj to appease the already unhappy Albanian Population. It could get some loyalty back.

The UK and France will desire a minimum of a neutral Ottoman Empire rather than outright ignoring it. If it is certain that the Ottomans fall to the German sphere then I'd expect their support to move to Bulgaria and Greece. Bulgaria had the large Army while Greece had the Navy.

true enough. The Balkan countries will be eying up the situation with careful eyes

This is what I would expect if your scenario was reality rather than an alternate scenario. But I am curious how your TL will develop.

well, you'll just have to wait and see!

 

[frchab]

Is Osman a person here or an idea??

 

[Gokbay]

Is Osman a person here or an idea??

Ottoman Empire

 

[Lantern]

Another one really @Sārthākā ?

 

[Lascaris]

The UK and France will desire a minimum of a neutral Ottoman Empire rather than outright ignoring it. If it is certain that the Ottomans fall to the German sphere then I'd expect their support to move to Bulgaria and Greece. Bulgaria had the large Army while Greece had the Navy.

This is what I would expect if your scenario was reality rather than an alternate scenario. But I am curious how your TL will develop.

A Greek-Ottoman entente is actually not out of the question at this point. The Greeks had two major concerns at the time:

1. The status of Greeks within the empire, CUP had initiated a boycott against Greek businesses in 1911 and were also impounding Greek merchant ships. Athens to put it mildly was NOT amused.
2. Recognition of Cretan union with Greece. This or rather CUP threats to invade Greece over it were the approximate cause of the Goudi revolt in 1909 and then one of the main reasons Greece allied with Bulgaria.

The first is directly CUP related, if the Ottoman remain democratic (a very big if given what happened in the 1912 elections but never mind) and Greek rights within the empire are respected, that's solved, we are coming right after several years of a Greek- Ottoman rapprochement, alliance proposals even proposals of a dual monarchy by the more enthusiastic. The second... Crete for every practical reason is under Greek control already. A compromise should be possible. Actually when the Balkan war was about to begin the Ottomans offered Greece union with Crete in addition to Epirus and border changes in Macedonia. But by then it was too late for a deal.

 

[Corporal Tommy]

@Sārthākā, you sir have quite the imagination and talent to be juggling this many ATLs.

 

[Osman Aga]

A Greek-Ottoman entente is actually not out of the question at this point. The Greeks had two major concerns at the time:

1. The status of Greeks within the empire, CUP had initiated a boycott against Greek businesses in 1911 and were also impounding Greek merchant ships. Athens to put it mildly was NOT amused.
2. Recognition of Cretan union with Greece. This or rather CUP threats to invade Greece over it were the approximate cause of the Goudi revolt in 1909 and then one of the main reasons Greece allied with Bulgaria.

The first is directly CUP related, if the Ottoman remain democratic (a very big if given what happened in the 1912 elections but never mind) and Greek rights within the empire are respected, that's solved, we are coming right after several years of a Greek- Ottoman rapprochement, alliance proposals even proposals of a dual monarchy by the more enthusiastic. The second... Crete for every practical reason is under Greek control already. A compromise should be possible. Actually when the Balkan war was about to begin the Ottomans offered Greece union with Crete in addition to Epirus and border changes in Macedonia. But by then it was too late for a deal.

While a union of Crete could be acceptable, concessions in Macedonia and Epirus will antagonize the already unhappy Ottoman Albanian population. My expectation is based on the Ottoman Empire joining Central Powers, which isn't guaranteed, as the Entente will lure the Bulgarians and Greeks in then.

An Ottoman-Greek reapproachment also means Greece guarantees protection of Cretan Muslims. Otherwise I don't really expect the Ottomans to open up to Greece anyway with a large size of Cretan Refugees coming to the Empire. The reapproachment between Greece and Ottoman Empire can be harmed if the Ottomans decide to grant extended autonomy to Albanians, combined with an "Albanian Vilayet". Which would include Kosovo, Albania, Albanian populated Macedonia and Ottoman Epirus. Which seems like a necessary decision if any wars are avoided.

 

[UnaiB]

What is the specific POD?

 

[Hawabin]

I remember reading that the war for Libya was going to long and too costly for Italy's liking and that they through their marriage to Montenegro encouraged them to declare war on ottomans with the rest of the Balkans also declaring war on ottomans. And then ten days later ottomans signed treaty with Italy so they could focus on the Balkans.

So I was thinking that could ottomans do the same, incite Ethiopians to attack Italian colonies. (access to the horn of Africa, pre emptive strike because Italians would come back again to colonise them... etc).
*I don't know if it's plausible or not just asking*

 

[Hawabin]

What is the specific POD?

PoD is that Ottomans reinforce Libya before Italians attacked.

 

[haider najib]

alliance proposals even proposals of a dual monarchy by the more enthusiastic.

what? you serious can you tell me more.

 

[Osman Aga]

A Greek-Ottoman entente is actually not out of the question at this point. The Greeks had two major concerns at the time:

1. The status of Greeks within the empire, CUP had initiated a boycott against Greek businesses in 1911 and were also impounding Greek merchant ships. Athens to put it mildly was NOT amused.
2. Recognition of Cretan union with Greece. This or rather CUP threats to invade Greece over it were the approximate cause of the Goudi revolt in 1909 and then one of the main reasons Greece allied with Bulgaria.

The first is directly CUP related, if the Ottoman remain democratic (a very big if given what happened in the 1912 elections but never mind) and Greek rights within the empire are respected, that's solved, we are coming right after several years of a Greek- Ottoman rapprochement, alliance proposals even proposals of a dual monarchy by the more enthusiastic. The second... Crete for every practical reason is under Greek control already. A compromise should be possible. Actually when the Balkan war was about to begin the Ottomans offered Greece union with Crete in addition to Epirus and border changes in Macedonia. But by then it was too late for a deal.

I have overlooked at this. I did hear about an Ottoman-Bulgarian Dual Monarchy in the 1880s, but never about this... What do I have to imagine? A dual monarchy within the Ottoman Empire? Or one that includes Greece as well?

 

[Analytical Engine]

Well, it looks like Italy is going to have to focus a lot more on the Horn of Africa, without Libya.

I'm not sure what effect this has on their designs on Ethiopia, though.

I agree that the Balkan Wars are probably less likely ITTL as a result of the Ottomans beating Italy. That doesn't mean that they won't happen at all, mind.

 

[Lascaris]

I have overlooked at this. I did hear about an Ottoman-Bulgarian Dual Monarchy in the 1880s, but never about this... What do I have to imagine? A dual monarchy within the Ottoman Empire? Or one that includes Greece as well?

One that includes Greece. Details vary, the first proposals were around 1878 IMS.. I believe Dragoumis Eastern Federation is the one best known. Interestingly didn't end even after 1922, in the 1930s the idea of a long term Greek-Turkish confederation with capitals in Athens and Ankara and federal parliament in Constantinople had support by both Venizelos and Kemal. Of course for anything of the short a basic requirement would be full equality of the Christians of the empire for real...