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Since the topic came up in a thread I posted a week ago-if by some POD (say, the Polish royal line not going extinct when it did) the Union of Poland and Lithuania-and thus Jogalia's conversion to Catholicism were averted, how likely would it be for Lithuania to convert to Orthodoxy instead?

Lithuania OTL used Ruthenian (proto-Belarussian) as its main language of administration before switching to Polish in the 16th century. ITTL, obviously, Ruthenian would likely continue as the official language and, considering that the Polish managed to become the majority language in Vilnius OTL and that pressure from Ruthenian will likely be greater, I wouldn't be surprised if Lithuanian is an endangered language by TTL's 20th century. It would be Ah.com's first Belarus-wank.

Beyond that, Orthodox Lithuania's society would be something of a combination of OTL Poland and Muscovy. The Ruthenian Boyars that became Polish aristocrats OTL would still be around and still have power, and the economic pressures that led to serfdom OTL (surplus of land, shortage of people, demand for grain) would still exist. On the other hand, it won't have the tradition of an elective monarchy that Poland had, so something like the PLC's "noble's democracy" evolving is unlikely. I don't think it would be as absolutist as OTL Russia ultimately became, though.

Foreign policy wise, I think a Lithuania that remained independent would be more able to react to the rise of Muscovy, making alliances with Tver, Novgorod, Kazan, etc. in order to contain-and perhaps eventually conquer-Muscovy. If Lithuania does conquer Muscovy, I expect they'll eventually start calling themselves "Tsars of the Rus" the way the Muscovite princes did. Also, I think Lithuania would conquer the Crimean Khanate sooner than OTL Russia did.
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