Orthodox Lithuania

Since the topic came up in a thread I posted a week ago-if by some POD (say, the Polish royal line not going extinct when it did) the Union of Poland and Lithuania-and thus Jogalia's conversion to Catholicism were averted, how likely would it be for Lithuania to convert to Orthodoxy instead?

Lithuania OTL used Ruthenian (proto-Belarussian) as its main language of administration before switching to Polish in the 16th century. ITTL, obviously, Ruthenian would likely continue as the official language and, considering that the Polish managed to become the majority language in Vilnius OTL and that pressure from Ruthenian will likely be greater, I wouldn't be surprised if Lithuanian is an endangered language by TTL's 20th century. It would be Ah.com's first Belarus-wank.

Beyond that, Orthodox Lithuania's society would be something of a combination of OTL Poland and Muscovy. The Ruthenian Boyars that became Polish aristocrats OTL would still be around and still have power, and the economic pressures that led to serfdom OTL (surplus of land, shortage of people, demand for grain) would still exist. On the other hand, it won't have the tradition of an elective monarchy that Poland had, so something like the PLC's "noble's democracy" evolving is unlikely. I don't think it would be as absolutist as OTL Russia ultimately became, though.

Foreign policy wise, I think a Lithuania that remained independent would be more able to react to the rise of Muscovy, making alliances with Tver, Novgorod, Kazan, etc. in order to contain-and perhaps eventually conquer-Muscovy. If Lithuania does conquer Muscovy, I expect they'll eventually start calling themselves "Tsars of the Rus" the way the Muscovite princes did. Also, I think Lithuania would conquer the Crimean Khanate sooner than OTL Russia did.
 
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Maur

Banned
It could evolve into elective monarchy, Poland did not have that tradition before Piasts died out either. Or it could evolve in different direction if Jagiellons are succesfull in reining magnates in.

Lithuania was still independent when Muscovy was annexing other surrounding principalities like Tver. Even when Novgorod fell it was in the period it was independent. It would require something other to prevent this.
 
Given that there were still Piasts around in the seventeenth century, it should not be too hard to get another monarch for Poland. The other important factor in Lithuania's faith allegiance though are the Teutonic Knights.
 
There were some attempts. Duke Algirdas. But back in XIII-XIV century, the ruling class of GDL was pagan. It was impossible to be christian (both East or West) and rule pagan lands - Mindaugas case confirms that (even though that his baptism was rather a fictional..)
Grand Duke Algirdas (or others dukes) claimed that "all rus' land must belong to GDL".

Wiki:

The first intrusions of the Lithuanian troops into the Moscow principality occurred in 1363. In 1368 Algirdas carried out the first major expedition against Moscow. Having devastated the Russian borderland, the Lithuanian prince routed the troops of the prince of Starodoub Simeon Dmitrievich Krapiva and prince of Obolensk Konstantin Yuryevich. On November 21, Algirdas put to rout the Moscow sentry troops on the river Trosna. However Algirdas could not seize the Moscow Kremlin. The troops of Algirdas ruined the area around the city and captured a significant portion of the Muscovite population. In 1370 Algirdas made another expedition against Moscow. He ruined the area around of Volok Lamskiy. On December 6 he besieged Moscow and started to devastate the surrounding area. Having received the message that the prince Vladimir Andreevich was coming to help Moscow, Algirdas returned to Lithuania. In 1372 Algirdas attacked the Moscow principality again and reached Lyubutsk. However the Grand Prince of Moscow Dmitry Ivanovich routed the sentry troops of Algirdas and Lithuanians concluded with Moscow an armistice. In 1375 Algirdas devastated the Smolensk principality.[1]

Imho, Algirdas conduced mission to gain some loot rather to to gain absolute control. Assume he have had another plan...

It seems that Lithuanian finally found Algirdas burial place.
 

yourworstnightmare

Banned
Donor
Lithuania converting would be slower without a Polish union for sure, but them converting to Orthodox Christianity is very plausible, since they were ruling Orthodox lands. Lithuania becoming Russia is possible.
 
Lithuania converting would be slower without a Polish union for sure, but them converting to Orthodox Christianity is very plausible, since they were ruling Orthodox lands. Lithuania becoming Russia is possible.

And this itself opens up some very interesting possibilities.
 
If Lithuania converts to Orthodoxy, which is plausible, it won't help them against potential German and Polish attacks. One major benefit of Catholicism is that it ended the casus belli the German crusading orders had. An Orthodox Lithuania would still be susceptible to the Teutonic Knights and its associated orders from attacking its possessions.

On the other hand, Lithuania is in good position to claim the leadership of the Orthodox world; Moscow may never be able to declare itself the Third Rome and all the prestige and universal claims it provided.

Orthodox Lithuania might also be well positioned to lead Orthodoxy in a different direction than Moscow did. Being so close to Poland and Germany, it would be more open to Western/Latin influence. Even if not in strict religious matters, Western influence in law, politics, economy, and technology would exert a tremendous cultural change in eastern Orthodox lands than it had IOTL.
 
Vaisvilkas, son and eventual successor of Mindaugas, was Greek Orthodox. Since he converted to that religion, and was able to gain the throne, others could too. His successor, Svarnas, was a Rurikid ruler of half of Halych-Volhynia so presumably orthodox also.

Maybe with a bit more luck, Svarnas would have lasted longer and brought the country into the orthodox church along with him. In OTL, he faced a rebellion of Lithuanian nobility (whether motivated by religious, racial or personal factors I don't know) and his reign lasted only for about two years.
 
Vaišvilkas ruled only a small part of Lithuania.
Baptism of Lithuania was a formal move. No one was showing intention to spread western religion here because as usually they faced with strong resistance. Orthodox people were killed many times - in XIV century, martyrs of Vilnius.
nthony, John, and Eustathius (Eustathios, Eustace; Russian: Антоний, Иоанн and Евстафий) are saints and martyrs (died 1347) of the Russian Orthodox Church. Their feast day is celebrated on April 14 in the horologion. They were attached to the Muscovite missionaries dispatched to the court of Algirdas, pagan Grand Duke of Lithuania. Algirdas was married to an Orthodox Christian princess, Maria of Vitebsk, and the Orthodox were permitted only to minister to the religious needs of the princess. All outside proselytizing was forbidden.
The three youths were arrested for preaching in public, and were ordered by Algirdas to consume meat in his presence during an Orthodox fasting period. When they refused, they were tortured and executed. Their bodies were kept in a glass reliquary in a crypt chapel beneath the altar of the cathedral church in the Monastery of the Holy Spirit in Vilnius, Lithuania, but has since been moved to the main sanctuary of the church. Their relics are said to be incorruptible.

I doubt that Lithuania had a possibility to convert into orthodox. We are ignoring the most important factor - it was a barbarian society and the perception of how to rule, how to act generally here survived longer than anywhere else. Christianty (East/West) firstly makes an impact on two important aspects: social structure (free man, servants, farmers etc) and on the war.
Algirdas, like his father - Gediminas wanted to make Kiev as a main metropol center. It was not about the religion per se, but because of gaining influence in eastern lands.
 
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