With a POD after 1900 what is the most realistic scenario in which Constantinople is either majority Orthodox or at least under the control of an Orthodox country/empire by 1950?
Orthodox Constantinople by 1950?
- Thread starter Super Cicero
- Start date
Greece would need to get support from a great power. In OTL the treaty of Sevres gave Greece territories, but the treaty was not enforced and Turkey was strong enough to take a lot more than they got from the treaty. Greece would face the same problems if the treaty had given them Constantinople. You would have to make a great power willing to enforce it. Maybe if the Russian revolution was avoided, but even then Russia would probably be a lot weakened by the war. Not sure if any other power would be wiling to help Greece.
Ahh, of course, for some strange reason I automatically assumed that it was Greece. Both Bulgaria and Russia are of course also potential candidates.
A funny, probably ASB alternative is that the great powers should decide to create a Jewish state around Constantinople. There were many alternatives discussed for a Jewish state, but I have never heard anyone suggesting Constantinople...
Then they would probably need help from some other country.
The native population of Constantinople was Greek. They made up 20-30% of the city in the early 20th century, until they were expelled. If Constantinople is given to Greece, they get to stay with the rest of the Christians, while the Muslim half of the city's population may be wholly or partially expelled instead.
The Greeks did win some battles against the Turks. What really killed them was indecisiveness.
Maybe they would resettle in the Asian/eastern districts of Constantinople, if it's poosible.
Constantinople being conquered by an Orthodox polity, Greece or Russia or Bulgaria, which then went on to expel the indigenous Muslim populations, would do it.
Maybe if the monarchy was abolished or at least the kings powers were limited and a pro-war-faction had come to power earlier, so that Greece had joined the war earlier. Or, as mentioned above, that Bulgaria joins the allies after being promised to get Constantinople. Of course, in both cases, the problem is whether the promises would be enforced. In OTL the treaty of Sevres giving large areas to Greece and Armenia was not enforced.
Russia taking Constantinople, I assume, would need an earlier POD.
I agree with others that either Bulgaria or Greece work best. Bulgaria could have done, but did not have the support of the Great Powers when it had the chance. Therefore, I think Greece is the better candidate. With some PODs in the 1915-1921 period, Greece had a chance to take control (or eventually take control) of Constantinople with Great Power acquiescence.
Note that if Greece takes Constantinople we do not need to talk about complete, immediate expulsion (although that is a strong possibility). If you expel peasants, then that land becomes available to your own landless peasants, or can go fallow. A major city's population is not so easily replaced especially the highly skilled population. I think it would be a much slower process as the Greek population was built up and the Turkish population declined. Not too mention that Constantinople was also home to various Armenians and other Christians of the old Ottoman empire. To fulfill the terms of the OP, Greece would have three decades or so to achieve an Orthodox majority.
Note that if Greece takes Constantinople we do not need to talk about complete, immediate expulsion (although that is a strong possibility). If you expel peasants, then that land becomes available to your own landless peasants, or can go fallow. A major city's population is not so easily replaced especially the highly skilled population. I think it would be a much slower process as the Greek population was built up and the Turkish population declined. Not too mention that Constantinople was also home to various Armenians and other Christians of the old Ottoman empire. To fulfill the terms of the OP, Greece would have three decades or so to achieve an Orthodox majority.
Russia might be able to do it as well, but they would have had to avoid all the troubles leading up to the war. Avoid the major defeat against Japan, prevent the massacres against its own population, and you might have revolution pushed back far enough that Russia can land on its feet.
Then, assuming that WW1 occurs similarly save for the revolution not occurring (and Russia never falling out of the war) then you could have a similar division of Anatolia. Even then with Constantinople being an International zone, the one enforcing it would be Russia due to proximity and desire. (Since Russia here woud still be the Empire, and not succumbing to the revolution, then it would be capable and willing to do so) And, while not Russian at first, the International zone eventually becomes de facto Russian within a few years. With France and Great Britain (and Italy?) not wanting to enforce it any longer due to their own aspirations, Russia eventually annexes the International Zone and incorporates Constantinople into the Empire. At that point, let's say 1925, there are two and a half decades for Russian immigration and Turkish emigration to occur in order for it to become Orthodox majority. Constantinople would, essentially, become an alternate Kaliningrad.
Then, assuming that WW1 occurs similarly save for the revolution not occurring (and Russia never falling out of the war) then you could have a similar division of Anatolia. Even then with Constantinople being an International zone, the one enforcing it would be Russia due to proximity and desire. (Since Russia here woud still be the Empire, and not succumbing to the revolution, then it would be capable and willing to do so) And, while not Russian at first, the International zone eventually becomes de facto Russian within a few years. With France and Great Britain (and Italy?) not wanting to enforce it any longer due to their own aspirations, Russia eventually annexes the International Zone and incorporates Constantinople into the Empire. At that point, let's say 1925, there are two and a half decades for Russian immigration and Turkish emigration to occur in order for it to become Orthodox majority. Constantinople would, essentially, become an alternate Kaliningrad.
Wasn´t the Greek population of Constantinople expelled quite quickly? I am not an expert, that is why I am asking. As far as I understand, the population in the city was a lot smaller than at the present, so even if the Turkish population was allowed to stay, but only Greeks were allowed to move into the city, I would assume that the Greeks eventually would come to dominate the city.
Honestly, if Greece does take Constantinople and there does end up being a population exchange with Turkey, I expect there to be an expulsion of Muslims regardless the effect on the city. This happened in Thessaloniki, why not the ancient Greek capital?
This expulsion will definitely hurt the city. Quite frankly, if Constantinople does not remain the natural destination for Anatolian migrants, I expect the city to never recover anything like its former stature, that it would just be a regional centre like Thessaloniki. Constantinople will never be as big as Istanbul.
The Greek population of now-Istanbul, along with the Greeks of adjacent islands in the Marmara, were spared the early 1920s population exchange, in exchange for the Turks of western Thrace being allowed to stay. The Greeks of Istanbul left only after pogroms in the mid-1950s.
There were a lot of Greeks expelled from Asia Minor in OTL. If this happened in this time line also, they would have to move somewhere. Many of them might decide to go to Constantinople. As far as I understand, many of the people that were expelled from what became Turkey ended up in Athens. Many of those could have ended up in Constantinople if this city had been taken by Greece. If Constantinople became Greek, but the other side of the straits became Turkish, I would assume that Greece would choose either Athens or some other city (Thessaloniki?) as capital, as Constantinople would be too close to Turkey.
Constantinople might well appeal to these Anatolian Greek migrants. Presumably they might have ended up there anyway had there been no war or population displacements.
One natural and relatively durable frontier probably would be a clean split between a Greece that had taken the European territories of the Ottoman empire and a Turkey that kept the Asian territories, with the straits and the Sea of Marmara being a border, not an internal sea. There might well be some sentiment in Greece for a move of the capital to Constantinople, but I wonder if vested interested might prefer keeping the capital in place no matter what the geopolitics of the city.
One natural and relatively durable frontier probably would be a clean split between a Greece that had taken the European territories of the Ottoman empire and a Turkey that kept the Asian territories, with the straits and the Sea of Marmara being a border, not an internal sea. There might well be some sentiment in Greece for a move of the capital to Constantinople, but I wonder if vested interested might prefer keeping the capital in place no matter what the geopolitics of the city.
It would have been interesting to see population statistics from different parts of Greece from the period prior to and after the large population transfers. I would assume that most parts of the country would get an increase in the population as there were far more people moving from what became Turkey to Greece than the other way around. Also, many areas in Turkey would have a decrease in population.