CHAPTER 2
IF NOT BY VOTES, THEN BY VIOLENCE
The failed 1930 Revolution
As the year progressed and March became closer, it became obvious that the Andrada-Prestes ticket would win. The two most powerful states, São Paulo and Minas Gerais, rallied together in a way that was not seen in years, with Andrada proclaiming himself as the candidate of order and reforms. A true believer of the democratic system, the great-grandson of José Bonifácio combined his position of a prestigious member of the upper class and his political views to be seen as a reformist politician who would emphasise and approve much-needed political and economic reforms, but in an orderly way that would preserve some aspects of the old oligarchic order. He also seemed to be supportive of President Washington's conciliatory tone among the urban liberals, the rural oligarchy and the military. Prestes, who almost became a presidential candidate, also significantly helped the campaign through dinners and behind-the-scenes talks with military officers, colonels and rural statemen.
The Liberal Alliance, however, didn't have the same luck. When the news that the President was willing to break the Coffee with Milk Policy came a year early, many were certain that if such thing happened Minas Gerais would join their side, but all hope went down when such possibility was quickly dismissed. Now, Getúlio Vargas and his running mate João Pessoa were alone, having the support only of their home states of Rio Grande do Sul and Paraíba, respectively, against the federal apparatus.
Finally, when Election Day came on March 1st, the results were:
Antônio Carlos Ribeiro de Andrada (PRM) - 1.273.966 votes (69.3%)
Getúlio Vargas (AL) - 564.368 votes (30.7%)
It was a overwhelmingly massive support for the establishment. Vargas and his party won only in their home states, while the rest of the country was rallied behind what was called the national candidate.
Ever since the end of the monarchy, every republican election was known for its violence and fraud, but given the entire national context the country was living in, 1930 reached the peak limit. Immediately, both sides accused each other of electoral fraud, and, after an extremely tense certification of votes that happened through the month, the National Congress certified the victory for Carlos de Andrada and Júlio Prestes. For many, it seemed to be that Vargas' gamble of overturning the results was over.
But it was only the beginning.
The next months were silent besides from confrontations of supporters from both sides. Publicly, aside from the occasional fraud accusations here and there, nothing was heard or seen about Vargas or Pessoa, however, behind the scenes, a conspiracy led by the Liberal Alliance was taking place once the votes were certified by Congress: a conspiracy to overthrow the government and avoid the inauguration of Andrada into the presidency of the republic, led, obviously, by the states of Rio Grande and Paraíba. Vargas knew that he hadn't the support of the high command and thus wasn't sure about the coup itself but, thanks to the political skills of Osvaldo Aranha, they found support from low-ranking officers - the Tenentists, and soon, quietly, they started making the necessary arrangements for the coup, until an unfortunate incident happened.
On the 26th of July, João Pessoa, Getúlio's running mate, was shot and killed by João Dantas, a known enemy. Despite the reasoning of this act comes from personal reasons, it was enough to blow up a series of political violence in an amount never seen before, until it started to become clear that something was happening. President Luís dismissed these possible accusations as nothing more but attempts to destabilize his government, however, President-Elect Andrada took them very seriously, and decided to embark on a national voyage to meet military leaders and regional elites to make sure they would maintain their loyalty with the Federal Government. Fortunately, it was a success, and when the inauguration day on November 15th looked that will be the same as every other, what was considered unthinkable took place:
On October 3rd, a series of military moves happened throughout the country with the purpose of overthrowing President Washington Luís. Tenentist manoeuvres attempted to take control of every state in every region, claiming to be part of a provisional government led by a military triumvirate. Without knowing what was happening, chaos took the nation as many started to use the situation to meet old foes or even strike political opponents, but Andrada's bet in the past months worked very well as the majority of military units remained loyal to the government and quickly arrested any insurrectionist soldier or officer with a manhunt against its perpetrators ensuing in the days afterwards, those being: Cordeiro de Farias, Newton de Andrade Cavalcanti, Eduardo Gomes, Antônio de Siqueira Campos, João Alberto Lins de Barros, Juarez Távora, Bertoldo Klinger, João Cabanas, Newton Estillac Leal, Filinto Müller and many, many others [4]. Still, two states have fallen to the rebels: Rio Grande do Sul and Paraíba.
The following days were one of the tensest ever seen in history at the time, as many feared that this would be the spark of a civil war. Although Paraíba fell easily to government troops, Rio Grande do Sul remained defiantly over the course of two weeks, leaving the country into national despair. The entirety of these actions would be extensively reported by the international media, with the crisis itself receiving large attention from the New York Times. It was only when federal troops led by Euclides Figueiredo reached the state border that all hope for the coupists was lost and, by the end of October, the remnants of the rebel forces surrendered. The 1930 Revolution failed.
Immediately, President Luís and President-Elect Andrada blamed the ill-fated coup on behalf of Vargas, who, without any choice other than total humiliation and prison, choose suicide on the 24th of October, aged 48 [5]. While the leaders of the said provisional government, more specifically the triumvirate led by generals Augusto Tasso Fragoso, José Isaías de Noronha and João de Deus Mena Barreto were arrested, Osvaldo Aranha, however, decided to flee the country, unsure if he did the right thing.
Carlos de Andrada would be inaugurated days later, becoming the 14th President of Brazil.
[4] It is a consensus among historians that this was the day that Tenentism effectively ended as a significant political force.
[5] Given the few that I read about Vargas' possible acts if the revolution failed IOTL, it seems to be that suicide would be most likely. Given his early death, the Brazilian left will become drastically different, which will be addresed in the future.