Order and Progress: A Brazilian TL

Note
Order and Progress
A Brazilian TL
by kubitschek
NOTE
Hello! I have been a lurker for quite a time since the past months, and I have finally decided to write my first timeline. As such, I would love to receive, especially from the Brazilian community present here, any constructive criticism in the posts to come, with the same applied to other users too.
 
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Venditg

Banned
Order and Progress
A Brazilian Odyssey
by kubitschek
NOTE​
Hello! I have been a lurker for quite a time since the past months, and I have finally decided to write my first timeline. As such, I would love to receive, especially from the Brazilian community present here, any constructive criticism in the posts to come, with the same applied to other users too.
NICEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE
 
Chapter 1
CHAPTER 1
HOW WE GOT INTO HERE

A synopsis of Brazilian history until 1930

During the entirety of its republican history, Brazil walked on a thin line between order and progress and chaos and barbary. The monarchy, seemed to be an archaic institution, was toppled down in a bloodless coup in 1889, after losing the remaining support of the upper classes a year after abolishing slavery. During its first years, the republic was a de facto military dictatorship under the command of Deodoro da Fonseca and Floriano Peixoto, in which the country was plagued from revolts of all kinds combined with a severe economic crisis. During the same time, the 1891 Constitution was approved under heavy positivist and American influences, upholding federalist concepts. When the military junta gave power to the civilian Prudente de Morais in 1894, a brighter future seemed to be ahead, but that wasn't necessarily the case.

The regional elites from São Paulo and Minas Gerais - the two most powerful states of the federation, without an Emperor above them, now had almost complete control over the country's political framework. Thus, to perpetuate such order, both groups met and created the Coffee with Milk Policy [1], in which the presidency would be rotated every four years among them. To make things worse, voting wasn't secret, which meant that anyone who didn't vote accordingly would be persecuted and even killed by the colonels - the elites that ruled the countryside in an overwhelmingly rural country.

However, that doesn't mean that everyone complied quietly.

Several riots, protests and movements happened throughout the country against the oligarchic republic since its inception in the 1890s, but they started to gain a more powerful track in the 1910s and 1920s, ranging from democratic to authoritarian ones in nature which were located on both the left and right. The most known movements that arose during this time was the Tenentism, mostly composed by low-ranking officers which conspired for the overthrown of the current system, and the Prestes Column, led by Field Marshall Isidor Lopez together with Miguel Costa and the communist Luís Carlos Prestes, who demanded the introduction of secret suffrage and wide-spreading democratic reforms.

These acts, of course, terrified the Federal Government. President Artur Bernades, from Minas Gerais, declared a state of siege four times during his term, arresting any opposition that seemed a threat against his rule and further radicalizing many who sought for reforms. In 1926, Washington Luís is elected. A conciliator politician, his government was marked by the end of the state of siege enacted by his predecessor but also the start of the censorship against the press. Despite his compromising nature somewhat worked well, the Wall Street Crash of 1929 and the ensuing Great Depression destroyed any possibility of stability in the foreseeable future, and the country was thrown again deep bellow in a sea of uncertainty.

As 1930 progressed, the fact of being an electoral year helped nothing to improve the national instability. Talks have been happening insofar as early-1929 when awful news started to be spread among the corridors of the Catete: it seems to be that President Luís will break the Coffee with Milk Policy!

According to the policy itself, the President must appoint someone from Minas Gerais to be his successor but, after some important dinners, he was inclined to support Paulista conservative Júlio Prestes. However, after being thoroughly advised by close political allies about the unpopularity of such decision, especially from the Armed Forces, the President came back to his mind and decided to support Minas Gerais' President Antônio Carlos Ribeiro de Andrada, a convicted democrat [2]. Furthermore, to avoid further conflicts, he ensured that Prestes would be Andrada's running mate and be appointed as the presidential candidate for 34'. The opposition, in turn, rallied around Gaúcho politician Getúlio Vargas and his party, the Liberal Alliance.


[1] São Paulo was the biggest coffee producer in the country whilst Minas Gerais was known for its dairy, hence why the name.
[2] This is the PoD of the timeline. IOTL, President Luís broke the Coffee with Milk Policy and launched Júlio Prestes as the presidential candidate, while Minas Gerais supported Getúlio Vargas. This doesn’t happen here.
 
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Just one thing, Prestes didn't led the first revolutionary column, who led it was Field Marshall Isidor Dias Lopez, the second in command was Miguel Costa and Prestes was the third.

Nice start.
 
Chapter 2
CHAPTER 2
IF NOT BY VOTES, THEN BY VIOLENCE

The failed 1930 Revolution

As the year progressed and March became closer, it became obvious that the Andrada-Prestes ticket would win. The two most powerful states, São Paulo and Minas Gerais, rallied together in a way that was not seen in years, with Andrada proclaiming himself as the candidate of order and reforms. A true believer of the democratic system, the great-grandson of José Bonifácio combined his position of a prestigious member of the upper class and his political views to be seen as a reformist politician who would emphasise and approve much-needed political and economic reforms, but in an orderly way that would preserve some aspects of the old oligarchic order. He also seemed to be supportive of President Washington's conciliatory tone among the urban liberals, the rural oligarchy and the military. Prestes, who almost became a presidential candidate, also significantly helped the campaign through dinners and behind-the-scenes talks with military officers, colonels and rural statemen.

The Liberal Alliance, however, didn't have the same luck. When the news that the President was willing to break the Coffee with Milk Policy came a year early, many were certain that if such thing happened Minas Gerais would join their side, but all hope went down when such possibility was quickly dismissed. Now, Getúlio Vargas and his running mate João Pessoa were alone, having the support only of their home states of Rio Grande do Sul and Paraíba, respectively, against the federal apparatus.

Finally, when Election Day came on March 1st, the results were:

Antônio Carlos Ribeiro de Andrada (PRM) - 1.273.966 votes (69.3%)
Getúlio Vargas (AL) - 564.368 votes (30.7%)

It was a overwhelmingly massive support for the establishment. Vargas and his party won only in their home states, while the rest of the country was rallied behind what was called the national candidate.

Ever since the end of the monarchy, every republican election was known for its violence and fraud, but given the entire national context the country was living in, 1930 reached the peak limit. Immediately, both sides accused each other of electoral fraud, and, after an extremely tense certification of votes that happened through the month, the National Congress certified the victory for Carlos de Andrada and Júlio Prestes. For many, it seemed to be that Vargas' gamble of overturning the results was over.

But it was only the beginning.

The next months were silent besides from confrontations of supporters from both sides. Publicly, aside from the occasional fraud accusations here and there, nothing was heard or seen about Vargas or Pessoa, however, behind the scenes, a conspiracy led by the Liberal Alliance was taking place once the votes were certified by Congress: a conspiracy to overthrow the government and avoid the inauguration of Andrada into the presidency of the republic, led, obviously, by the states of Rio Grande and Paraíba. Vargas knew that he hadn't the support of the high command and thus wasn't sure about the coup itself but, thanks to the political skills of Osvaldo Aranha, they found support from low-ranking officers - the Tenentists, and soon, quietly, they started making the necessary arrangements for the coup, until an unfortunate incident happened.

On the 26th of July, João Pessoa, Getúlio's running mate, was shot and killed by João Dantas, a known enemy. Despite the reasoning of this act comes from personal reasons, it was enough to blow up a series of political violence in an amount never seen before, until it started to become clear that something was happening. President Luís dismissed these possible accusations as nothing more but attempts to destabilize his government, however, President-Elect Andrada took them very seriously, and decided to embark on a national voyage to meet military leaders and regional elites to make sure they would maintain their loyalty with the Federal Government. Fortunately, it was a success, and when the inauguration day on November 15th looked that will be the same as every other, what was considered unthinkable took place:

On October 3rd, a series of military moves happened throughout the country with the purpose of overthrowing President Washington Luís. Tenentist manoeuvres attempted to take control of every state in every region, claiming to be part of a provisional government led by a military triumvirate. Without knowing what was happening, chaos took the nation as many started to use the situation to meet old foes or even strike political opponents, but Andrada's bet in the past months worked very well as the majority of military units remained loyal to the government and quickly arrested any insurrectionist soldier or officer with a manhunt against its perpetrators ensuing in the days afterwards, those being: Cordeiro de Farias, Newton de Andrade Cavalcanti, Eduardo Gomes, Antônio de Siqueira Campos, João Alberto Lins de Barros, Juarez Távora, Bertoldo Klinger, João Cabanas, Newton Estillac Leal, Filinto Müller and many, many others [4]. Still, two states have fallen to the rebels: Rio Grande do Sul and Paraíba.

The following days were one of the tensest ever seen in history at the time, as many feared that this would be the spark of a civil war. Although Paraíba fell easily to government troops, Rio Grande do Sul remained defiantly over the course of two weeks, leaving the country into national despair. The entirety of these actions would be extensively reported by the international media, with the crisis itself receiving large attention from the New York Times. It was only when federal troops led by Euclides Figueiredo reached the state border that all hope for the coupists was lost and, by the end of October, the remnants of the rebel forces surrendered. The 1930 Revolution failed.

Immediately, President Luís and President-Elect Andrada blamed the ill-fated coup on behalf of Vargas, who, without any choice other than total humiliation and prison, choose suicide on the 24th of October, aged 48 [5]. While the leaders of the said provisional government, more specifically the triumvirate led by generals Augusto Tasso Fragoso, José Isaías de Noronha and João de Deus Mena Barreto were arrested, Osvaldo Aranha, however, decided to flee the country, unsure if he did the right thing.

Carlos de Andrada would be inaugurated days later, becoming the 14th President of Brazil.


[4] It is a consensus among historians that this was the day that Tenentism effectively ended as a significant political force.
[5] Given the few that I read about Vargas' possible acts if the revolution failed IOTL, it seems to be that suicide would be most likely. Given his early death, the Brazilian left will become drastically different, which will be addresed in the future.
 
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As you can see, I not only changed the title for something with more context, but also added pics as well. Expect an update tomorrow!
 
Chapter 3
CHAPTER 3
POINT OF RUPTURE

The beginning of the Andrada presidency
When President Andrada was inaugurated on that historical November 15th of 1930, the nation still was suffering from the aftershocks of the ill-fated revolution that happened months before. Sure, Brazil's republican history showed that the country was plagued from these revolts since its inception, but never was seen one with such power, a power which almost toppled the Federal Government. The worse part is that this was only one of the several problems that the new administration faced: the tension among regional elites, the growing urban population's demand for reforms, the military which partially let this happen... and, of course, the Great Depression. Elected promising reforms and order, the president was forced to choose one and sacrifice another for at least half of his term, so he decided to prioritize the national integrity above everything else, with the first measures already being put into act on day one.

Although this already started during the last days of Washington's rule, President Andrada made sure to end what he considered to be the principal threat: Tenentism. Thankfully for him, the majority of the coupist leaders either fled, have been killed or, more commonly, arrested, including the "provisional junta" which was condemned to 20 years of prison on charges of attempting to overthrow the government [6]. However, according to his view, many of them remained free, roaming on the cities and possibly preparing themselves for another revolution which may be successful, thus being necessary a more radical approach.

A state of siege, just like the ones that happened under the Bernades administration, have been discarded, but a manhunt with - ironically - almost revolutionary fervour took place on the cities, with government troops, assisted by the colonels and elites, arresting anyone who seemed to be a threat against "constitutional order." Colonel Euclides Figueiredo, considered to be a national hero, was promoted to general and supervised the manhunt against those rebels. As 1931 started, the only major revolutionary left was Osvaldo Aranha, who found refuge in Bolivia.

Managing to flee after his friend's death, Aranha immediately started showing his point of view towards the facts that happened, as well as promoting his political views and criticizing the government and the political system that it is built upon. Despite large attempts to curb such publications, they still fell on the hands of many on the streets of Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo, making his name more famous among everyone. Another person that found itself under the highlights was the recently-promoted general Figueiredo, seen by many as the responsible for ending the coup. Although his true political views remain cloudy, the general was thrown upon the clubs, parties and dinners of the high society at all, making important contacts and creating powerful alliances.

The government didn't have the same mood though. These persecutions, although seen as necessary by some, left every other important issue behind - the state of the nation, the economy, everything, was left in the background as low-priority issues while day after day more would found to be another member of the conspiracy and arrested. This made not only his popularity shrink at the bottom, but also made many lost their hope in any reform or important act in the years to come. The government, after 50 years of liberalism and laissez-faire politics, felt insecure about to intervene in the economy to combat the Great Depression. No good outcome was ahead and, day after day, people seemed angry at the current order and found home on extremist ideologies on both sides.

Talk about Tenentism and its members, but they were way better than any authoritarian movement. Well, their support to democracy and democratic values is questionable and debatable, but at least they didn't want to transform Brazil into some communist or fascist state akin to the Soviet Union or Italy. However, since all of them were hunted down in the past months, fascism and socialism took its former place as alternatives of the status quo, with many people became new adepts of the recently-founded Brazilian Integralist Action, created in October 1931 by former PRP politician Plínio Salgado [7] or joining the illegal Brazilian Communist Party, with the two becoming more radical and bigger day after day.

As 1931 became closer to its end, the country found itself under its darkest hour. Awful economic situation, poverty, popular disaffection towards the government and radical extremism grew more and more and no one is capable to fix it. The country reached its point of rupture, and there's only downhill by now.


[6] Of course, given their ranks and the sad events to come, nobody carried out their full sentences, but found themselves isolated on public life, with many living on anonymity afterwards.
[7] IOTL, the AIB was founded a year later, in 1932.
 
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Talk about Tenentism and its members, but they were way better than any authoritarian movement. Well, their support to democracy and democratic values is questionable and debatable, but at least they didn't want to transform Brazil into some communist or fascist state akin to the Soviet Union or Italy. However, since all of them were hunted down in the past months, fascism and socialism took its former places as alternatives of the status quo
When the cure is worse than the disease... Interesting timeline! Wondering what will happen next.
 
Oh my, this is a very promising (and ominous) start to this TL! Keep it up, I'll watch it with great interest.

On a personal note, I hope Pedro Ernesto managed to stay off the hook somehow, since although he was a prominent conspirator he was also respected for his medical expertise (he even performed surgery on Washington Luís in 1929). I'm a bit sad that he probably won't become mayor of Rio de Janeiro ITTL, but maybe he can live a longer/happier life without the Estado Novo breathing down his neck.
 
Oh my, this is a very promising (and ominous) start to this TL! Keep it up, I'll watch it with great interest.

On a personal note, I hope Pedro Ernesto managed to stay off the hook somehow, since although he was a prominent conspirator he was also respected for his medical expertise (he even performed surgery on Washington Luís in 1929). I'm a bit sad that he probably won't become mayor of Rio de Janeiro ITTL, but maybe he can live a longer/happier life without the Estado Novo breathing down his neck.
Thank you!

Well, I must confess that I don't know how many people truly took place in the revolution, but I also need to confess that the idea of having a lot of highly-influential and rich people being locked up for 20 years is very unlikely

(On a side note: I might make the next chapter more longer than the past three as a test. If I like the result, then I will post weekly, probably on the Saturdays or Sundays, instead of posting sporadically as I am posting right now)
 
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