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In 1785 in the Netherlands there was a short civil war between the Orangists, those who wanted statholder William V of Orange to hold more power, and the Patriots, who favored continuing Dutch democratic traditions. The uprising was crushed by a combination of British support of Orange and a Prussian military intervention in favor of William. Louis XVI wanted to intervene in favor of the Patriots, but the recent Franco-American war against the British had drained his treasury and he could not start another war.

So lets say that Americans don't rebel. The First Treaty of Paris in 1763 is different, or the British deal with the Americans better. Whatever it is, the French have managed to spend the entire 1770's without having a war with the British.

Without bankrolling the American Revolution France is in bad financial straits, but no where near OTL. Plus it hasn't been engaged in a long. draining war with the British. So the Patriots revolt as per OTL, in 1785, but instead of being quickly overwhelmed by the Prussians and British, they find support from the French and Austrians. The French openly support the Patriots, sending them arms and warning the Prussians that to intervene means war. Joseph II honors his alliance with his brother-in-law the King of France and makes it clear that he supports the Patriots.

The Prussians send troops, so do the French, and the Netherlands' War(for lack of better name) is on. The French, Spanish, Austrians, and Bavarians face off against the UK/ Hanover and Prussia. Catherine the Great does not immediately take sides, as she is engaged in war on her southern frontier. Frederick the Great returns to command his army one last time, however after scoring one victory against the Austrians he dies, and the Prussians have no great commander to replace him. The war comes to an end in 1789, when food riots in Paris turn into an open revolt and the army is required to return in order to crush them. The Treaty of Stockholm leaves the Orangists in control of the Netherlands, and the Spanish lose Louisiana to the British, but otherwise there are few territories exchange.

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