well, not exactly "optimal", but more like "makes better choices than OTL"...
Anyway, if your foreign policy goals as leader of the Soviet Union are, in order of importance:
- restore borders of former Russian Empire
- protect it via a powerful military backed by a strong industry
- ensure its safety by having dependable buffer states
- spread communism around the world
- minimize the cost of achieving the above
... then some sort of war in the early 1940s is necessary, since otherwise everyone else piles up on you. Obviously, collective security and peace would produce a much better result regarding economic indicators, but they would hardly move you closer to achieving your goals above.
To this end, a suicidal Germany led by the madman Hitler is required. By striking a deal with them, the USSR can easily occupy the Baltics and eastern Poland. Once that is achieved though, you might as well cut them loose from all support:
- if they win against France, they will surely turn on you next, therefor, its better to have them weak
- if they stalemate against France, you get even more time to modernize your military and then sweep in at the last second
- if they lose against France, the Anglo-French would be both grateful to you for having stopped supporting Hitler and too tired to try and kick you out of Poland
And so:
Step 1
Stalin 'agrees' to the M-R pact, orders a halt to operations in Manchuria
Step 2
Germany invades Poland; Allies declare war on Germany;
Step 3
Germany crushes Poland; Red Army occupies eastern half
Step 4
Anglo-French DO NOT declare war on the USSR over Poland, Germany shifts forces west
Step 5 (here things start to diverge from OTL)
Stalin re-initiates hostilities with Japan; cuts trade with Germany
Step 6
Germany strikes north; Stalin attacks Finland; attack on Finland exposes grave deficiencies within the Red Army
Step 7
Germany unexpectedly conquers France, initiates Battle of Britain; Stalin realizes he will have time until next summer until Hitler attacks him
Step 8
Red Army continues to push into Manchuria, gaining valuable experience; Molotov Line is mostly scrapped, main armies placed further back behind Stalin Line
Step 9
In spring 1941, cease-fire agreement reached with Japan; experienced Siberian units moved west to act as a reserve, replaced with rookies; majority of the bomber force deployed throughout Ukraine; rest of airforce held somewhat back
Step 10
Hitler launches Barbarossa; Wehrmacht encounters only light delaying forces by the Soviets; Red Airforce launches massive raids vs Romanian oil installations
Step 11
German spearheads reach Stalin Line, fail to penetrate, and are forced to wait for the bulk of the infantry; Soviet forces counter-attack exposed German spearheads, enjoying acceptable kill-loss ratios
Step 12
German reinforcements achieve break-throughs of the Stalin Line in the center and south; Red Army withdraws to Dniepr-Dvina-Lake Peipus line
Step 13
Pearl Harbor happens, USSR starts getting LL from America; German advance grinds to a halt, attrittional warfare ensues for the next year, as the Wehrmacht fails make any breakthroughs during the 1942 summer season; German economy begins to implode due to lack of accumulated stockpiles
Step 14
Worse German situation enables Op. Sledgehammer to be launched in '43; Eastern Front begins collapsing; summer '44 Red Army enters Berlin
Step 15
Alternate Yalta sees Austria, more of Germany and half of Greece fall into the Soviet sphere
Step 16
Red Army heads east, attacks Japan again; occupies Manchuria, Korea, Sakhalin and Hokkaido; After 'Decisive Battle #4' (fought at Okinawa) fails, Japan surrenders
Overall Soviet losses would probably be, at worst, around half of those suffered OTL.
Anyway, if your foreign policy goals as leader of the Soviet Union are, in order of importance:
- restore borders of former Russian Empire
- protect it via a powerful military backed by a strong industry
- ensure its safety by having dependable buffer states
- spread communism around the world
- minimize the cost of achieving the above
... then some sort of war in the early 1940s is necessary, since otherwise everyone else piles up on you. Obviously, collective security and peace would produce a much better result regarding economic indicators, but they would hardly move you closer to achieving your goals above.
To this end, a suicidal Germany led by the madman Hitler is required. By striking a deal with them, the USSR can easily occupy the Baltics and eastern Poland. Once that is achieved though, you might as well cut them loose from all support:
- if they win against France, they will surely turn on you next, therefor, its better to have them weak
- if they stalemate against France, you get even more time to modernize your military and then sweep in at the last second
- if they lose against France, the Anglo-French would be both grateful to you for having stopped supporting Hitler and too tired to try and kick you out of Poland
And so:
Step 1
Stalin 'agrees' to the M-R pact, orders a halt to operations in Manchuria
Step 2
Germany invades Poland; Allies declare war on Germany;
Step 3
Germany crushes Poland; Red Army occupies eastern half
Step 4
Anglo-French DO NOT declare war on the USSR over Poland, Germany shifts forces west
Step 5 (here things start to diverge from OTL)
Stalin re-initiates hostilities with Japan; cuts trade with Germany
Step 6
Germany strikes north; Stalin attacks Finland; attack on Finland exposes grave deficiencies within the Red Army
Step 7
Germany unexpectedly conquers France, initiates Battle of Britain; Stalin realizes he will have time until next summer until Hitler attacks him
Step 8
Red Army continues to push into Manchuria, gaining valuable experience; Molotov Line is mostly scrapped, main armies placed further back behind Stalin Line
Step 9
In spring 1941, cease-fire agreement reached with Japan; experienced Siberian units moved west to act as a reserve, replaced with rookies; majority of the bomber force deployed throughout Ukraine; rest of airforce held somewhat back
Step 10
Hitler launches Barbarossa; Wehrmacht encounters only light delaying forces by the Soviets; Red Airforce launches massive raids vs Romanian oil installations
Step 11
German spearheads reach Stalin Line, fail to penetrate, and are forced to wait for the bulk of the infantry; Soviet forces counter-attack exposed German spearheads, enjoying acceptable kill-loss ratios
Step 12
German reinforcements achieve break-throughs of the Stalin Line in the center and south; Red Army withdraws to Dniepr-Dvina-Lake Peipus line
Step 13
Pearl Harbor happens, USSR starts getting LL from America; German advance grinds to a halt, attrittional warfare ensues for the next year, as the Wehrmacht fails make any breakthroughs during the 1942 summer season; German economy begins to implode due to lack of accumulated stockpiles
Step 14
Worse German situation enables Op. Sledgehammer to be launched in '43; Eastern Front begins collapsing; summer '44 Red Army enters Berlin
Step 15
Alternate Yalta sees Austria, more of Germany and half of Greece fall into the Soviet sphere
Step 16
Red Army heads east, attacks Japan again; occupies Manchuria, Korea, Sakhalin and Hokkaido; After 'Decisive Battle #4' (fought at Okinawa) fails, Japan surrenders
Overall Soviet losses would probably be, at worst, around half of those suffered OTL.