Optimal post-ww2 Polish borders

Weclome everyone!
This is my first post here but I am not a newbie. I hope that this subject will fit here well. :)

The aim of this survey is to collect answers about optimal Polish borders after World War II. I prepared a preliminary map, which also is a research tool. I assume that some of you know perfectly the history of Poland and her borders but I feel obliged to add some point for less oriented people who may be participating in this survey.

Outline:

Polish case during World War II was one of the biggest problems the United Kingdom, the United States and the Soviet Union. Britain declared war on Nazi Germany to defend the independence of Poland and its western borders, but soon under the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact country was divided between the two occupants. Despite the illegal annexation of the Polish eastern lands in 1939, two years later, the Soviet Union became an ally of the Great Britain and the United States against Nazi Germany. Polish case was a real problem for allied countries. Poland sought to regain its eastern borders from 1939 when the Soviet Union insisted to accept all of its gains until June 1941, including the annexation of the Baltic states in the summer of 1940.

Polish eastern territories were the real bone of contention between Poland and the Soviet Union. The Soviet Union was insisting that these lands had a small percentage of the Polish population and were mostly inhabited by Ukrainians and Belarusians. On the other hand these lands had a remarkable Polish minority. They also included two major cities of Lwów (Lviv) and Wilno (Vilnius), crucial for Polish history and culture, as well as inhabited mostly by Poles.

Finally, despite the diplomatic talks, Poland lost its all lands east of the Curzon Line A (with Lwów and Wilno) in exchange for German lands on the west. Those changes were accompanied by displacement and refuge of millions of Germans, Polish, Ukrainian and other nations.
The Polish eastern, western and northern borders were decided by Stalin whose determination won against the conciliatory attitude of the British and Americans.

Your role:

You are in position of person who is responsible for deciding about Polish borders after World War II. As you decide about everything, please try to consider this case as much as you can.

General requests:
A. This is not a pure scenario of alternative history or place to discuss about the correctness of the opinion of other users. Of course you can comment on other people's posts. However please do it without provoking or insisting to change somebody’s mind. This topic was created to collect people’s ideas, it is not a field for agitation for one possible solution of user X or Y.

B. On the map the red colored area is not subjected to any negotiations as it is the core of Polish liberated from German occupation.

C. This is not a topic on wishful thinking about Polish Empire from the Bering Sea to the Elbe or German Empire. Any proposal calling to Riga border combined with the line of the Oder-Neisse or coming back to German 1914 borders will be treated as trolling and will not be included in the final results.


Assumptions:
1. Poland immediately after World War II will be fully independent country neighboring from the south with democratic Czechoslovakia and with USSR from the east. There will be a Soviet zone in eastern Germany (please do not confuse this with DDR). The Baltic States will be annexed by USSR. It is not important how the history will be continuing, ie. whether Poland and Czechoslovakia will become communist countries eg. in 1948 - just about the limits and the starting point which is the end of the war - 1945 years.

2. Western Allies only guarantee Polish independence and its eastern border to the Curzon Line B, but do not mind that the final shape of the border of Poland can be agreed directly with the Soviet Union. USSR wants to maximize its profits, but is ready to make some concessions.

3. Western Allies fully support the Polish demands on Germany to whole East Prussia and Upper Silesia up to Nysa Klodzka. By the way, in favor of the liquidation of Free City of Danzig, there is a general agreement of expulsion of Germans from all lands granted to Poland. Further acquisitions in the West are rather questionable and depends on the pressure of Stalin.


Points to consider:

1. Poland is one of biggest among the allied nation. It took the first strike in 1939 and suffered terrible German occupation causing mass murdering of Polish Jews and Polish as well as destroying whole cities. Poland wants only to have secure access to the Baltic Sea what needs the liquidation of East Prussia. Polish territorial demands include also Free City of Danzig and rest part of Upper Silesia. If Poland is going to lose its eastern lands, it will be demanding more German lands.

2. Poland is supporting its rights to 1939 eastern borders but it is ready to negotiate with USSR. The most important Polish cities are Lwów and Wilno and Polish are likely to save them and compensate eastern losses on west.

3. USSR is trying to keep as much as possible but Molotov Line it is very unlikely to happen. On the other side Polish eastern border from 1939 is also very unlikely to happen.

4. Expulsion of millions of people is unavoidable as East Prussia and Free City of Danzig must be for sure removed from German possession. Polish from lands acquired by USSR will be also moved to Poland and about 50% of Ukrainians left in new Polish borders will be removed to USSR.

5. Allied map from 1943 to consider more about Eastern Poland:
osc07n.jpg

Map legend:

1. Black line – Polish borders in 1938 (before the annexation of Zaolzie in 1938)

2. Red line – present Polish eastern border

3. Red line + blue line in Eastern Galicia – Curzon Line B

4. Red line + green line in Eastern Galicia – Curzon Line A

5. Mustard line – Molotov Line

6. Grey lines – suggested areas to add/remove

Pol_bor.png

User manual:
Please download the map and open it in any drawing program. Using the same color that was used for “Polish core” and then please use the same color to the areas which should form a post-war Poland. If your idea is limited by any existing line, any modifications are allowed. At the end, please overwrite the file and put it to the response in the subject. All justifications are well seen.

Thank you!
 
Alright, so the ideas I based my decision on:

- The Polish Kresy was seized in 1939 by the USSR in an illegal manner via force of arms, but before that, it was also seized by the Polish in 1921 in an illegal manner via force of arms. Thus these factors cancel out and thus Polish claims on the region are to be ignored at the expense of other factors.
- "Point to consider 4" means that I cannot choose the borders I would ideally want since I would ideally want to avoid ethnic cleansing, with the possible exception of expelling settlers who arrived via an ethnic cleansing campaign to begin with. Therefore, realpolitik is to play a significant role in what my chosen borders would be, and political realities will sometimes have to take precedence over ideas of justice and self-determination (though not as much as they did IOTL).
- I found this ethnic map on the ethnic composition of interwar Poland and Polish communities outside its borders. Not sure how reliable it is, but it seems to be roughly correct at least, possibly erring on the side of Poland a bit, but that's tolerable.
- As far as I'm concerned, the large-scale ethnic cleansing of fully German areas (as per IRL) is not going to happen. Let's be honest, Poles, even by 1939, just weren't as numerous as their (pre-war or post-war) borders would indicate. I know they suffered during the war, but if they feel inadequately compensated, they should seek compensation other than territory. Some expansion at the expense of Germany will still occur, of course.
- Aside from the Germans that are doomed to be expelled anyways, I'll naively pretend that all national minorities within the new borders will be treated in an... at least acceptable, if not exemplary manner. Arguments to the contrary probably won't fly in the post-war atmosphere anyways.

With that said, my decisions:

- Wilno goes to Lithuania. Again, Poland did not respect the Lithuanians' right to self-determination when they pulled their shenanigans with Central Lithuania in 1922 and as such, Lithuania can get away with getting Vilnius back without a referendum or anything. Similarly, Lida will stay a part of the Byelorussian SSR.
- The regions with Grodno, Bialystok, Brzesc and Allenstein will go to Poland by default. They are largely Polish and there is little justification for seizing them apart from blatant expansionism. Even if we assume Poland will not become a "people's democracy" after WWII, the USSR's strategic position is not significantly improved by having these areas (I think). Some of these annexations may conflict with the USSR having already legitimized its annexation of the territories east of the Curzon line via elections to the People's Assemblies of Western Ukraine/Belarus. This should be solved by the USSR claiming that 1939 had a chaotic wartime situation, and now that 'the chauvinish White Polish government has been toppled along with the fascists' (or some propaganda along those lines), new borders between Byelorussia and Poland can be negotiated. Due to the structure of the USSR, they should have no trouble legitimizing this stance among their people.
- Ideally, the Lwów-Drohobycz area would go to Poland. Lwów, for example, was largely Polish before the war and the Polish suffered from unjust atrocities at the hands of the NKVD, without which the Poles would still have formed a majority in the city. Soviet strategic interests of linking up with Carpatho-Ukraine, which they will no doubt seize, can be achieved even if the USSR only annexes territories up to the blue line. However, if Stalin proves recalcitrant during negotiations, this would be the first claim I'd consider dropping.
- Southern East Prussia is annexed as shown on the map; Poland gets a bit more than IOTL since if they are to be compensated from German land, this is where they should go first (the ethnic cleansing of Germans from East Prussia is unavoidable anyway, might as well give the Poles as much as possible).
- As for the rest of the Polish expansion into Germany, the solid-colored former German areas have sizable Polish minorities (or majorities) and thus should definitely go to Poland. A part of the area south of Breslau/Wroclaw and west of Oppeln/Opole also goes to Poland because I think it'd make for a more sensible border with a strategic buffer between Germany and those two cities. The Kolberg area, marked with a grid pattern, should probably be left with Germany, but if the political atmosphere really necessitates more cessations from Germany to Poland, this is the last area that should be merged into Poland.
- Zaolzie goes back to Czechoslovakia.

MP7Mcmd.png


These borders are significantly smaller than OTL post-war Poland's and thus the USSR might have a hard time fostering goodwill with the Poles. This is a problem they'll have to solve.
 

Deleted member 94680

Am I only one sickened by the OP's veritable Polish Empire Wank?
Massive population expulsion is horrible.

The liberal use of the term "liquidation" is off-putting as well.


However, with the constraints as listed I can't see any other solution than OTL Polish borders.
 
I am sorry for using the word "liquidation". I did not mean anything bad.
This is a term which was extensively used in allied documents regarding the future Germany.

Please also try to focus on map. If you feel that this Polish Empire Wank, please ignore. I am either ignoring "German Empire Wank" threads which are dominating whole alternate history in the internet.
 
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