Optimal GERMANY post-World War I borders survey (Central Powers victory)

Deleted member 94680

I don't know that they would, but there seems to be a pretty widespread assumption on this forum that A/H would soon fall apart even if on the winning side. I was accepting it as a possibility.


Assumptions by many that “know” these things but have no sources to back up the claim. I urge you to read a good study on the Dual Monarchy and make your own assumptions. I believe that the Empire was wonderfully adaptive and the balm of victory could well soothe whatever ruptures the rigours of War have thrown up.


I meant major war with other great powers


Ah I see. Well, OTL would suggest 20 odd years with a weakening of attitudes towards keeping the losers down.


Would the Germans of Austria particularly want to be "independent and sovereign" if they no longer had an empire? They became so in 1919 only because the Entente insisted on it, and in this scenario the Entente is defeated and in no position to insist on anything.


I don’t know about the populace, but I can’t see the Emperor of Austria-Hungary subordinating himself to the Emperor of Germany. This is the problem that needs to be addressed.


I agree the Sozis may have reservations about incorporating Czechs and Slovenes, but I don't see why they should have any problem about Austria's Germans joining the Reich, if that was what the latter wished. A voluntary Anschluss would not be seen as "annexation". And quite a few German-Austrians did vote socialist, and would presumably continue to do so as German citizens. Most others would probably vote for the Zentrum.

See point above.
 
Assumptions by many that “know” these things but have no sources to back up the claim. I urge you to read a good study on the Dual Monarchy and make your own assumptions. I believe that the Empire was wonderfully adaptive and the balm of victory could well soothe whatever ruptures the rigours of War have thrown up.

I have read quite a bit. My basic conclusion is that the Dual Monarchy can survive ok if the CPs win the war early, in 1914-15, but that its prospects decline the longer the war lasts, ie a CP victory at the First Battle of the Marne would likely save it, but one at the Second BotM might well not. .


I don’t know about the populace, but I can’t see the Emperor of Austria-Hungary subordinating himself to the Emperor of Germany. This is the problem that needs to be addressed.

True, but the map which triggered this argument seems to assume a collapse of the Empire, in which situation his opinions might count for less.
 
I don’t know about the populace, but I can’t see the Emperor of Austria-Hungary subordinating himself to the Emperor of Germany. This is the problem that needs to be addressed.
The Emperor would probably be removed from his post by pan nationalists if his authority has gone down so much that he's losing Bratislava which is not even a days march away from Vienna.
 

Deleted member 94680

I have read quite a bit. My basic conclusion is that the Dual Monarchy can survive ok if the CPs win the war early, in 1914-15, but that its prospects decline the longer the war lasts, ie a CP victory at the First Battle of the Marne would likely save it, but one at the Second BotM might well not.

Fair enough, but I would contend that any victory will save the Monarchy. Almost all post-War plans by A-H involved territorial aggrandisement and that would surely be construed as the Empire recovering.


True, but the map which triggered this argument seems to assume a collapse of the Empire, in which situation his opinions might count for less.

Assumes, but not posted by the OP.

The Emperor would probably be removed from his post by pan nationalists if his authority has gone down so much that he's losing Bratislava which is not even a days march away from Vienna.

Pan-nationalists? Who are they in A-H OTL? Were there Austrians who wanted to dissolve what they’re fighting for OTL? Also this again assumes a course of the War not posted by the OP.
 
Pan-nationalists? Who are they in A-H OTL? Were there Austrians who wanted to dissolve what they’re fighting for OTL? Also this again assumes a course of the War not posted by the OP.
Supposedly Hitlers school teacher was one and that's where he got his ideas from. OTL the attempts to establish some kind of Habsburg realm identity all failed and all ethnic groups identified as they did before, in the case of Austrians as Germans who were left outside when the small German solution was enforced decades ago.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_nationalism_in_Austria
 

Deleted member 94680

Supposedly Hitlers school teacher was one and that's where he got his ideas from. OTL the attempts to establish some kind of Habsburg realm identity all failed and all ethnic groups identified as they did before, in the case of Austrians as Germans who were left outside when the small German solution was enforced decades ago.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_nationalism_in_Austria

“Supposedly”.

The ‘Hapsburg identity problem’ had long plagued the Dual Monarchy, but its structure right until the end reflected the fact that it was a collection of several parts as opposed to a homogenous whole.

Also a movement that fractured into seventeen different groups doesn't sound like it was that well supported or united, to be honest.
 
“Supposedly”.

The ‘Hapsburg identity problem’ had long plagued the Dual Monarchy, but its structure right until the end reflected the fact that it was a collection of several parts as opposed to a homogenous whole.

Also a movement that fractured into seventeen different groups doesn't sound like it was that well supported or united, to be honest.
The German pan nationalists were obviously only concentrated in the German speaking parts of it. The Romanians and Poles had their own pan nationalists inside A-H.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
The Poles in the Reich didn’t vote for the SPD in any great numbers, nor did they conspire with them either. Why should they do different now the Reich is even more an oppressor of their chances of independence? OTL, the minute Germany was sufficiently weakened they began fighting for union with Poland. The SPD may be anti-annexationist, but it was hardly a friend of Polish emancipation.
One could argue that the SPD didn't bother dealing with the Polish parties because they didn't have enough political strength. Meanwhile, the strength of the Polish parties would be increased if there were more Poles in the German Reich.
 
One could argue that the SPD didn't bother dealing with the Polish parties because they didn't have enough political strength. Meanwhile, the strength of the Polish parties would be increased if there were more Poles in the German Reich.
How many Poles would leave to an independent Poland if the Germans win?
 
From what I can tell, it looks like Serbia has lost some portions of Banat and Vojvodina to Croatia and Hungary.

No, actually. Before WWI Serbia ended at the Sava-Danube line. Banat and Bačka* were Hungarian before the war. Any gains made by the new Croatian state in Banat, Bačka and Baranja would be at the expense of the Hungarians, not Serbs.


*Vojvodina is the catch-all term for the parts of these two regions that were inhabited by Slavs.
 
All of this is actually pretty good. Indeed, the main things that I disagree with are your idea to outright annex Latvia and Estonia as well as your assertion that the U.K. would have remained neutral in WWI without a German invasion of Belgium.

Frankly I find British neutrality a rather long stretch but it is certainly possible. Without invading Belgium it does not preclude British belligerence but it makes the blockade more open to abuse and smuggling by a lot more players and might shift the USA away from the Entente as a neutral trader. The British contribution would not be war winning, especially on a narrower front with Germany fighting more defensive whilst defeating Russia. I think annexing the Baltic states is not a wise move but I think it is the minimum that the elite might accept after "winning" a war. I doubt they stay German provinces for long though. Once a new generation of politicians take power I think Germany has transitioned to economic power and sees the benefits of defense alliance with a customs union rather than more "voters". And the more threatening the Russians the better, they will drive European unity under a German led continental hegemon. And if A-H does not fracture or crumble outright then Europe will barely lose a generation to the USA as the "leader" of the world.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
In a CP victory world? Not a chance.

If Germany had it's way, it would have become the most loyal puppet in the Mitteleuropa.
Would Lithuania's Germanophilia be based on the fact that Germany would give it its desired borders? Or would it be based on something else?

Also, by your logic, wouldn't the Lithuanians in the former Suwalki Gubernia be glad if they were annexed to Germany and given German citizenship?
 
Would Lithuania's Germanophilia be based on the fact that Germany would give it its desired borders? Or would it be based on something else?

Also, by your logic, wouldn't the Lithuanians in the former Suwalki Gubernia be glad if they were annexed to Germany and given German citizenship?
I didn't mean they'd necessarily want to be with Germany, they would just have no choice.

I've discussed a CP victory scenario with my father, interested in history much like me, and we came to the conclusion that Lithuania would become German in about 20-30 years.
 

Perkeo

Banned
I think the ideal borders get rid of all non-German majority areas while making the country as large as possible. So IMO that's OTL 1871...
  • Minus north Schleswig
  • Minus Lorraine (not necessarily Alsace, see below)
  • Minus Polish-speaking Silesia
  • Minus most of West Prussia
  • Minus all colonies
  • Plus OTL 1919 Austria
  • Plus South Tyrol
  • Plus Sudetenland
Preferably the eastern borders aren't with Russia but with smaller countries that have no choice but ally with Germany.
In other words, the ideal borders, ironically, look much more like a CP defeat than a victory.

Now if we insist on CP victory, the very very very least is to plant no further time bombs. France may give up A-L one day, but taking e.g. the Briey basin is madness. It would ally France - maybe Britain as well - with any enemy of Germany for generations.

Now as for A-L, I'd give it back to France if I assumed that would settle the dispute, but I'm sceptical. France had A-L in 1870 and Napoleon still DOW'd on a hilarious pretense. Heck even the expansion to the "natural border" Rhine didn't end the Napoleonic wars. So I choose the Salomonic verdict to divide by language.

The German success is built on trade, not raw materials.
 
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CaliGuy

Banned
I didn't mean they'd necessarily want to be with Germany, they would just have no choice.

In other words, you mean that it would become the most loyal puppet in Mitteleuropa not so much by choice, but simply because Germany will put extraordinarily pro-German people in charge of Lithuania, correct?

I've discussed a CP victory scenario with my father, interested in history much like me, and we came to the conclusion that Lithuania would become German in about 20-30 years.

Actually, I find that very doubtful since LIthuanians were mostly literate by this point in time and thus less susceptible to having their national consciousness be altered.
 
Actually, I find that very doubtful since LIthuanians were mostly literate by this point in time and thus less susceptible to having their national consciousness be altered.
Uhhh, what? It's easier to assimilate people which don't read in their language, that's was the whole damn point of the Tsarist press ban.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Uhhh, what? It's easier to assimilate people which don't read in their language, that's was the whole damn point of the Tsarist press ban.
This ban doesn't appear to have been all that effective, though:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lithuanian_press_ban

If anything, the Lithuanian resistance and disobedience (in regards to smuggling Lithuanian books, et cetera) that this ban generated appears to have strengthened Lithuanian national consciousness.
 
This ban doesn't appear to have been all that effective, though:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lithuanian_press_ban

If anything, the Lithuanian resistance and disobedience (in regards to smuggling Lithuanian books, et cetera) that this ban generated appears to have strengthened Lithuanian national consciousness.
Oh it was plenty effective, it's just that us Lithuanians don't really like to admit it. It's why Eastern Lithuania (i.e. Vilnius and east) ended up Slavicized. Sure, Lithuanian language survived, but it really wouldn't have lasted long if these conditions were to be repeated. Especially since in a CP victory scenario, importing books from Germany is no longer an option.
 
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